Snap!

c9sc6aixuaezlruFirst of all, this is clearly a fucking conspiracy to stop me getting any work done. And second, this is going to be hellish.

What can happen in the UK? Well, Corbyn could step down and/or the labour Party could split. A single issue “Remain in the EU“ Party might actually have a chance of taking the Tories on…(a better chance than Labour have as they are anyway). Paul Mason is already – fruitlessly – suggesting a grand alliance of opposition parties.

But let’s just take a reasonable bet on none of that, or anything like that, happening. (We’ll know quickly…if it doesn’t happen by the end of this week, it’s not happening.)

Everything depends on the two Labour parties…but the chances against innovative ideas are pretty damn slim. The chances are that Labour will go into this election as one party and get gubbed seven ways to Christmas on the 2oth anniversary of the Blair landslide. May will now have an irrefutable mandate for the hardest of hardcore English National Brexits. I think any thought of the new Tory intake (400, 450?) being anything other than xenophobic dingbats of the deepest water is ill-founded.

Oh…UKIP will vanish and the Lib Dems will pick up some seats…some of them in Scotland…You heard me right…There will be a highly organised and motivated anti-SNP bandwagon in which the Tories and the LibDems will joyfully participate, with Scottish Labour trying desperately to cling on to their one seat. They won’t succeed. But the the SNP will have to fight like hell to lose only ten seats and not fifteen or twenty.

This has clearly been on the cards for a while. This is why “now was not the time” for an indyref.

The Lib Dems and Labour will try to present themselves as opposition to the Tories, but in the Scottish (scarcely relevant) bit of this general election, nothing will be so important for any of them as “Beat the SNP.”

Labour will lose everything in Scotland, and the Tories and the Lib Dems between them will win ten seats and claim that settles Scottish Independence as an issue till the Sun turns into a red dwarf and swallows the planet.

There is no way we wake up on June 9th with anything but a bloody big mountain to climb, whoever we are.

Corbyn will probably quit, but the Labour Party in the UK, reduced to 150 seats at best, will still need to split to sort itself out between those who are interested in being the government of England, and those who want to wave their virtue at everyone like a bunch of liberal toss bags.

And yes, the government of England is what they will have to go for, because, in an unholy, messy, awful way this brings the inevitability of either forced absorption or separation closer than ever. Scotland will be gone from the union in any terms of positive identity. Brexit will either absolutely confirm that, or we will finally, messily escape it, possibly by electoral mandate in 2022, possibly not. That’s one murky glimpse too far inside the crystal ball.

A referendum? Who knows? The Break Up of Britain?

Tick Tock

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  1. Jo says:

    Pretty messy Peter, I agree.

    I was thinking why didn’t she call this BEFORE triggering A50?

    May is arrogant at the best of times but today was ten times more arrogant than usual. I think the worst part was that she’s actually making this all about Brexit.

    Does she think she’ll take the focus off Tory domestic policy by doing that?

    Also the biggest lie from her today was that on Brexit there is “disunity” only at Westminster while “the country” is united on it! She still won’t admit that the EU referendum basically split the UK right down the middle!

    Interesting times indeed. It remains to be seen whether Labour “moderates” will get their act together and decide to function as if they actually care! And can Farron make gains for the Lib-Dems?

    Then there’s Scotland and what could happen here. Can the SNP repeat the, almost, clean sweep like last time?

    Will Davidson with her obscene backing for “rape clause” legislation pay a price for that and for other Tory reforms all designed to hurt the poor? Will Mundell?

    Kezia has already said today that Scots must use the vote to oppose a new Indy ref! No mention of the impact of Brexit. No mention of dire Tory policy on the poor. I do wish she’d grow an imagination somewhere in that empty head of hers!

  2. w.b.robertson says:

    the Tories (like Mr Lenin 100 years ago) know how to grab power, use it, and how to retain it. The Indy movement, alas, is still in the process of learning.

  3. johnny come lately says:

    I can’t seem to shake off the feeling of impending disaster. Now we’re about to find out if our people really are thick and spineless or if at long last they can grow a pair. I have to be honest. I prefer not knowing.

  4. barakabe says:

    Cannot agree with Peter Arnott on Tory-Lib Dems winning 10 seats- how exactly? I really can’t see that at all. In their strongholds of the Borders under Mundell they won in 2015 by 1% & in Orkney-Shetland Carmichael won by 3% or so (that was before he was publicly deemed to be a liar). If Carmichael runs again he will lose. Mundell will lose after 2 disastrous years as Scottish Secretary. That leaves Murray in South Edinburgh, which was the unionists safest seat with 5%. He’s a gold-plated tit. Pretty sure he’s doomed as well. I predict a clean sweep of ALL SEATS by the SNP- what will May do when the electoral blowback hits her square in the face?

    1. MBC says:

      Murray may be contemplating running as an independent anti-Brexit MP. Wings reported recently that voters in Edinburgh South were polled about this. He got in by 800 votes last time, as did Mundell and Carmichael. Parts of Morningside were 90% for Remain. I think he’ll squeak back in.

      Carmichael is the safest of the three. He survived the liar crisis and like Murray voted against the Brexit bill. They just like the LDs up there and he’s a good constituency MP.

      I can’t help but feel the Lib Dems will gain more seats in England standing on an anti-Brexit ticket. They’ve got nothing to lose. So they might as well. It’s already won them a seat in Richmond standing on an anti-Brexit ticket. I think there could be 50 Tory seats taken off the LDs last time that could return to the LDsif enough Remainers pool Together.

      1. barakabe says:

        I think you’re right in terms of the Lib-Dems gaining seats from the Tories, esp in regard to traditional lib-dem seats. UKIP are toast, so the tories may gain here, unfortunately. As for Labour the remaining voters seem pretty hardcore, specifically the Corbynistas; so I don’t think Labour will lose much in this election, but where will they gain? They’ve shot themselves in the foot with their stance on Brexit, where they could have won ground from the Lib-Dems. There was only 6% or so between the Tories & Labour in the popular vote, I actually think that might shrink, just a little, when the Lib-Dem variable is added into the equation. The fact that Murray is running on an anti-Brexit ticket shows he simply puts himself before any party or principles, at the expense of his own interests. As for Carmichael I do think he’s in trouble, his cheeks will be wobbling at the thought of this election- the SNP increased thei vote share by 27% in 2015- if the liar slur has stuck to him then karma is coming for him.

  5. Interpolar says:

    Get back to the feckin’ day job, May!

    1. Jo says:

      Indeedy. We could also throw in that other phrase she likes, “Now is not the time!”

  6. Crubag says:

    It depends – will it really become an election about BREXIT? In which case it is a more lumpy re-run of the referendum.

    In England, at least, there will be clear LEAVE (Tory, UKIP) and REMAIN (Lib Dem) options, with Labour wobbling about in the middle.

    Potentially awkward for the SNP in that case – are they proposing a re-entry for Scotland following a referendum (a YES/REMAIN) option? Which could narrow their vote if Scottish NO/LEAVE voters find homes for their votes.

    Or is the SNP pitch simply a mandate for another referendum, after which the choice of EU re-entry or not is over to the electorate? But we already have that – so possibly a return to 1980s/90s politics and a majority of MPs equals the start of independence?

  7. john young says:

    We have to go for it,if we fail then we deserve the “bottlers” soubriquet that the English just love to throw at us and you can,t blame them,we have a very solid core of proven crappers when it comes to backing their own country,if we fail this time then our children/grandchildren will suffer for evermore.

  8. Alex M says:

    The worry here is that Scots have swallowed the nonsense that we are bound by the Scotland Acts that were were brought in to establish devolution. The Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament is merely a construct of Westminster, and can be changed at any time. For the first time in my life Scotland has no representation in the UK Government. Previous Scottish Secretaries have put Scottish interests to the Cabinet. The present incumbent tells Scotland what he has been told. We need now to concentrate on Westminster. If the SNP make it a manifesto pledge that an SNP majority at the Election, will declare independence, that is all we need. Even Margaret Thatcher conceded that. About 8 of the countries that have joined the EU in recent years, got their independence that way. Very few countries have bothered with referendums.

    1. MBC says:

      There’s a risk the SNP will lose seats and votes standing on an Indy ticket. Not everybody who voted SNP in 2015 wanted independence.

  9. Mike Lothian says:

    Remember thanks to the new boundary changes, Labour have already lost their only seat in Scotland

  10. prolerat says:

    Does it really matter which capitalist political party wins. Scotland’s richest 10 per cent saw the largest increases in income over 2014/15, while the proportion of working households entering into poverty levels has increased, according to the latest figures from the Scottish Government. The proportion of people in absolute poverty – lacking basic human needs like food and shelter – remained unchanged, though decreased slightly if housing costs were factored in.

    The top 10 per cent saw incomes rise by 15 per cent more than the bottom 40 per cent combined, the report says. In 2013/14, the same group saw incomes rise by 12 per cent more.
    Whether the government over you is Red, Blue, Green,Tartan ,Yellow, Purple, capitalism will reign supreme and effectively run the government in the only way it can, to increase the wealth of the parasitic capitalist class..

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