2007 - 2020

It looks like UK govt messed up Covid-19 modeling… and are now backtracking hard

This from Scientists for EU.

This does explain why the schools are open.

 

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  1. Mach1 says:

    Close the bloody schools, Nicola. When second-hand Car lot starts complimenting you, you know you’re being had. The basic issue is the perilous state of our health service after a decade of austerity cuts and ideological attack on public provision. There is a wider debate about Big Pharma’s role in defining pandemics, but even if we accept simply a severe winter flu event, it seems proper and necessary to break ranks with BoJo (and his repetoire of virus jokes…’flatten the sombrero’, a borderline racist reference to the ‘Spanish flu’…’last gasp’ efforts to get more ventilators… you catch the drift.

    1. Jo says:

      And what if she does?

      The clowns in the media will accuse her of provoking division, of exploiting a lethal disease for political gain. You saw what happened over the ban on gatherings of over 500. They were all over it.

      She can’t do right for doing wrong in the eyes of some.

  2. Xplora says:

    I thought everybody thought this! I don’t use any social media whatsoever so I suppose that I am already isolated for our times but it did seem like the obvious explanation over the weekend whilst I deliberated hard on whether to send my two primary school kids in on Monday. Then I had time think on the depressing reality of family life in Scotland and realised that a large number of children are going to be at risk in their own homes. I am hoping that one of the reasons for the delay of school closures is that the Government is searching for ways to identify and cater for ( PROTECT) vulnerable children along with the children of essential workers.

    I haven’t sent my kids to school this week. I feel very privileged to be in the position to do this but I am a single parent with health issues and only elderly, infirm relatives to step up should anything happen to me. The choice was easy but BoJo & Co. have put me in the position of feeling like I am abandoning a sinking ship and the wonderful people staffing it who are being put in a terrible position.

    I know it is too much to ask from this mob but I really want an explanation. They are promising transparency but that won’t happen here. Each family has to make the choice right for them right now. In the very near future we need to check on the needs of other children. More testing? Surely?

  3. John McLeod says:

    This is excellent. Thanks to Bella for disseminating it. Please, please show other videos from this source as they come available. Apart from its lucidity, what this speaker is saying, is a reminder that science is international and based in open critical analysis of ideas and evidence.

  4. handofkwll says:

    Hmm. I think this is a good though somewhat slanted and simplified version of the uk plan. He’s right that scientific modelling is a tricky business and very dependent on the input assumptions, I hope people are updating these as more is learned. I also believe herd immunity is the ultimate destination, either by managing the spread of the disease or by vaccination when that is possible.

    The thing is that modelling is the natural, the only, thing to do when you’re trying to understand a complex system. Lacking a model people just start waving their hands and saying things with no way of knowing how right or wrong they are. You don’t want to watch how someone else controls a nuclear reactor, you need to understand the principles yourself. Every other country will be doing this too, or should be.

    I’m not particularly bothered by scientists disagreeing about new and important stuff – they do it all the time, even more so when they start to look at someone else’s field of expertise and think they’re making a hash of it.

    In summary, I don’t think the UK is necessarily panicking yet. The gov. plan must I think be to maintain the infection rate at a level where the NHS can cope with serious cases – as said in the video. For it to work they must be using their model to predict the number of cases a week or more ahead. I expect them to be adding restrictions to damp down the rate at times and, if it slows down too much, lift them again to keep the rate manageable while letting the infection spread and (hopefully) immunity rise.

    This is indeed all a very tricky business and may/will go wrong at times. However, we are where we are and I can see why those with the responsibility might think this is the only way to go. The Dutch a least seem to be doing something similar as their PM very ably explained to his country the other night. Also French and German admissions that they expect 50 to 70 per cent of their people to eventually be infected suggests to me that they are thinking of management towards herd immunity as well, rather than containment.

    I completely agree that international cooperation is essential in this crisis but the video would have been more convincing if it hadn’t trailed off into British exceptionalism (i.e. we’re Brits so we are exceptionally thick), Brexit blah blah, it just makes it clear that you have an axe to grind.

    1. Jo says:

      “Lacking a model people just start waving their hands and saying things with no way of knowing how right or wrong they are.”

      Some guy from Forth Valley Health claimed it was wrong to close schools. Big spiel…. honestly, Sturgeon is following advice and, as she said, observing the situation on the ground. And then these random folk pile in and The Herald give them top billing!

  5. The Over Extended Phenotype says:

    To date Coronavirus has killed 0.0001 % of the human population.

    1. Jo says:

      Which isn’t the point.

      The point is ensuring we keep fatalities to a minimum.

    2. Xplora says:

      We don’t have the capacity to deal with an influx of people needing help breathing. It really is that simple. You can’t say ” you’ve been on that ventilator ages, gies a go ” Please be responsible and let’s all do our bit to try to stop the spread. If we can do that we can return to normal sooner.

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