Broken Promises, Futures Past

Did you miss the Emperor Penguin story from last week? It was caught somewhere between the ‘Aw / funny story at the end of the news’ and your daily ‘Dystopian Update’. Three huge colonies of Emperor Penguin’s (approximately 60,000 chicks) died of cold because the sea ice melted much earlier than usual before their waterproof feathers were fully developed. It was estimated to be about 4% of the total global population. As Barbara Wienecke, senior research scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart said: “Deeply concerning is that such events happened at some of the southern-most colonies. The Weddell and Ross seas were considered possible climate refuge for emperors as Antarctica is getting warmer.”

What we are watching is the intersection between the climate catastrophe and the nature crisis beginning to form new grotesque synergies.

Still with the birds … the climate crisis is also driving some, especially migratory species, to adapt in new patterns. Deterred by increased crosswinds some species are not making the crossing from southern Europe to northern Africa but remaining in southern Spain where they can gorge themselves among the mountains of garbage in the dump at Los Barrios, near Cádiz. White Storks, Kites and Vultures are attracted in huge numbers, as too are the ornithologists flocking to see them in their new ‘habitat’. There is now a stable population of about 37,000 birds wintering there feeding on the rubbish, the rats, the plastic and the waste.

But while animals are changing their behaviour patterns, humans aren’t.

In a remarkable piece of writing Moya Lothian-McLean looks at the phenomenon of tourists flying into climate disaster zones as if nothing untoward was happening. She describes how as Rhodes burned, tourists kept flocking in:

“Homes were being turned to ash, thousands of holidaymakers were being evacuated, and still the visitors came. In the wake of the Hawaii wildfires, which have killed at least 115 people, the island of Maui experienced the same phenomenon.”

What is going on?

Lothian-McLean asks: “Why do we travel? Maui residents told media of their horror at seeing tourists “swimming in the same waters our people died in”. Surely, that level of compartmentalisation in dogged pursuit of a particular experience goes beyond the pursuit of “leisure”?”

The paradox of western tourists flying in to areas in search of ‘authenticity’ or ‘experience’ while their actions are actively contributing to their demise is astonishing, but no more so perhaps than our everyday lives. But the dark irony is compounded by the idea that over-tourism erodes distinctiveness so that places become more and more alike, visited by the same displaced hordes of people seeking a something from their meaningless lives. In doing so they create a No Place, societies hollowed-out, their cities as theme-parks, ‘locals’ either tied-in to the industry and reduced to stereotype or socially cleansed and removed. The rewards therefore for ‘travel’ will become less and less.

The problem is not just selfishness, ignorance or lack of alternatives. We have created a system where cheap air-travel is a right not a gift, and flying (anywhere/anytime) is considered a ‘luxury repackaged as basic human need’. In our time-poor lives, ‘slow travel’ is anathema.

Watching the scenes of chaos as the air traffic control failure spiralled out across Europe, the results were the inevitable stranded people, stories of people abandoned by airlines and helpless without the packaged, managed process. We’re not really ‘travellers’ as such just people being flown-about.

We have been attuned to ‘No Place’ – are quite at home with system collapse and breakdown – and are utterly unphased by flying into disaster, after all its what we’ve been doing most of our lives. Nothing will challenge the global tourism industry which is hard-wired to ignore the chaos and the suffering in pursuit of vast profit, there is precisely zero sign of ‘Jet Zero’ and no-one, no-one will give up the hard-wired urge and presumed ‘right’ of westerners to fly anywhere they like.

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  1. Mark Bevis says:

    To quote John Kenneth Galbraith:
    “People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material portion of their privilege.”

    The fear at loss of privilege, or even a perceived loss of privilege, is far greater than the fear of climate chaos, fear of aliens, fear of fascist govts, fear of food supply breakdown etc.

    Hence the outrage at JSO demos etc. Self-extinction is virtually built-in to the human psyche.

    As for the penguins, it’s all part of the sixth mass extinction, which we are not in the middle of, but 90% of the way through.
    Nate Hagens posted a new graph from Tom Murphy’s work. We all are aware of the 2018 study showing mammal biomass is 96% humans and their livestock, (and 70% of all birds are chickens) but this graphic shows biomass per person.
    Quote from his twitter post:
    “The general arc: 12,000 years ago there was approximately 100,000 lbs of wild animal biomass for every human alive at the time==>by 1800 that had declined to around 200 lbs per human.

    Today, for each of the 8 billion humans on Earth, there remains about 2 kilograms (5 lbs) of wild animals. Like 2 squirrels. Or a big rabbit. ”
    https://twitter.com/NJHagens/status/1695427638574104802?s=20
    https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2023/08/ecological-cliff-edge/

    Clear evidence that homo sapiens have been in overshoot since well before agriculture.

    William Rees explains it well in his latest no-holds-barred paper:
    https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4060/4/3/32
    If you only read one academic paper this year, this would be the one.

    To quote from his last paragraph:
    “- collapse is not a problem to be solved, but rather the final stage of a cycle to be endured.”

    Nothing will change now until a “population correction” is carried through and the population reverts to sustainable carrying capacity. We can debate the whys, wairfores, and actual numbers till twitter implodes, but that won’t alter the trajectory much.
    The really hurtful aspect of this is the fate of all the other species we are taking down with us.

    For what it’s worth, this is my pinned post on twitter:

    “Are you ready to die?
    Are you ready to leave?
    Can you let go of everything in which you believe?
    Because all that you know is going to go away.
    Mass extinctions are irreversible.
    Climate change is irreversible on human time scales.
    The only outcome of overshoot is collapse.”

    Enjoy your extinction, you only get the one.

    1. Alistair Taylor says:

      Thanks for that Mark.
      It made me smile, well said.
      Bring it on, we’ll soon be dead.

      Private Frazier was right, all along.

  2. gavinochiltree says:

    The Flight of the Lemmings, human-style.
    Disaster movies in real time: real life.

    In spite of the warnings, what happens “out there” is not registering with people.
    Like a TV soap.
    This lets the politicians and the media off the hook of responsibility.

  3. 230830 says:

    I read an interesting article in Nature recently, which surveyed the recent anthropological research that’s gone into the cultural phenomenon that is denialism: the fact that, while we’re convinced that everything is fucked, we’re not doing much apart from a few token con­ces­sions that we believe to be vir­tu­ous..

    The research seems to suggest that we are in such a state of denial because the media keeps banging on about the crises we’re experiencing and their apocalyptic nature. Studies have shown that the more frequently people are exposed to disturbing information, the less disturbed they are by it. As the objects of exas­per­a­tion mul­tiply, our levels of indig­na­tion lower. In this way, we can per­suade ourselves to live in a fucked-up world or a world that’s indifferent to our needs.

    The researchers theorise that this because humans characteristically cope with feelings of discomfort and guilt by diffusing them. They also suggest that this biological mechanism of diffusion might also be what gives rise to other forms of denialism such as compassion fatigue, and call for funding for new research programmes to test this hypothesis.

    1. Niemand says:

      This rings really true and I would add that humans are very good at getting used to things, even when really bad.

      I get very frustrated by the apocalyptic rhetoric of the media as it quite clearly causes more inertia than action. For example there are many things going on, big and small trying to address nature conservation and climate change but are drowned out by the negative reporting which essentially says what we do now is too late anyway, we can do nothing but weep and look upon mankind as finally allowing his original sin to destroy the Earth and himself. It is like the ultimate version of Mike’s article about hope the other day – there is no hope and where there is no hope what is the point of paying attention to the disaster? Better just to try and live as best a life as you can now and try and forget it.

      The problem with this kind of approach beyond it encouraging inaction, not action, is that is is seriously biased by default; it makes a good headline, it lends a sense of self-righteousness to the reporting, it feels kind of good to be laying into the apparent villains. It is simply, not ‘cool’ to look at any positive change / actions. As journalism it is deeply flawed and it is not remotely surprising the people, the vast majority of whom have no agency (or are told they have none), switch off.

      1. 230831 says:

        Yep, I think it’s about living as well as you can today in the sure and certain knowledge that, sooner or later, we’re all going to die. That despair or hopelessness can be galvanising rather than paralysing.

        Of course, the two sixty-four thousand dollar questions that have been taxing philosophers since Socrates fetched up in the agora are: what does it mean to ‘live well’, and how do we go about working out the answer to that question? How do we live in good faith, and what does it mean to ‘live in good faith’?

  4. DAVID SMART says:

    Humans are programmed for extinction. Flying to burning destinations. Driving around in cars for fun. Eating ourselves into an obesity epidemic. Buying copious amounts of needless junk. Until the disaster is on our doorstep, we fail to acknowledge it. Smokers smoking till they have a heart attack, THEN stopping. Getting fatter till we get diabetes, THEN having to change our lives. Even if a massive lump of ice collapses off a glacier and causes a massive tsunami which submerges, say, New York or London, humans wouldn’t change that much. Welcome to oblivion.
    The above was my thoughts on your excellent article. Below was AI response. All is not lost it seems.
    ChatGPT
    It’s true that humans sometimes tend to ignore long-term consequences until they’re immediate threats. However, it’s important to note that individuals and societies can also take proactive steps to address challenges and change behaviors. Awareness and collective action can drive positive change and help prevent some of the dire scenarios you’ve mentioned.

    1. 230831 says:

      ChatGPT misses the point of denialism, which is that individuals and societies *could* in principle take proactive steps to address challenges and change their behaviours that constitute the so-called ‘polycrisis’ but they in fact *don’t*.

      We’ve never in our history achieved the level of solidarity that would be required to address these global challenges, and – realistically – that solidarity is not now going to suddenly appear as if by magic and certainly not within the sort of timescale required. To believe otherwise is an act of bad faith.

      I’m with Camus on this: we must embrace the absurdity of our situation (the unbridgeable chasm between what we ideally *could* and *should* do and what we realistically *can* do) and live each day optimistically, as if it were our last. For, one day, as sure as death, it will be our last. And, by then, it will be too late to live. This is acceptance in place of denial.

      (Ironically, I’m away to ‘make hay while the sun shines’. I’m going to strim my grass this morning.)

      1. Alistair Taylor says:

        So, 230831, would that be with a gasoline or ele<tri<al or handpowered strimmer?

        1. 230831 says:

          Electric. I tried a scythe once. Damned near killed myself. Scything’s like dancing; if you don’t know the tune, you’re b*gg*er*d.

          1. Niemand says:

            I have found aluminium scythes much more manageable

          2. 230901 says:

            Mmm… I’m sceptical. Do they have the same ‘heft’?

  5. Rachel Findlay says:

    Again. Spot on Mike.

  6. Observer says:

    Given this reality, it does seem more feasible to attempt to achieve policy success locally on resilience and adaptation rather than on a naive quest for global Net Zero/Habitat preservation etc.

    Local resilience, crisis prevention and adaptation measures might also be pretty unpopular, but they would at least show tangible benefits.

    1. 230901 says:

      Yep, as Jean François Lyotard said as long ago as 1979, in his investigation into how society should re-evaluate our acquisition of knowledge in a digital/computerised age, our present situation calls for petit rather than grand récits, the cultivation of ‘local resilience, crisis prevention, and adaptation measures’ rather than ‘a naive quest for global Net Zero/Habitat preservation etc.’.

  7. SleepingDog says:

    It has been a while since I read JG Ballard’s science fiction oeuvre, but I think ‘tourist-in-a-disaster-zone’ was one of his stock characters. See also Douglas Adams, who co-wrote Last Chance to See. Then there was the Joe and Petunia animated public information films.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_and_Petunia
    I suspect such characters were also stock roles in British comedy like the Carry Ons.

    The truth is that people change their behaviour all the time, these days. Current air travel is hardly a hoary tradition. Renting or buying, physical media or downloading, smoking or vaping, the amount things replaced by mobile phone apps and enabled by web browsers.

    Simplest thing is to down or ground a few planes. A single volcano seemed to manage this in living memory. I guess the psychological motive is superiority-seeking, the same reason why some people go to restaurants, to be served and called sir. Or why colonial-themed culture remains popular. Some ideologies demand winners losers so some can feel like winners. Better to have a seat at the captain’s table in Hell and a voucher for your next drink, and all that.

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