Lessons from Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

Labour defeats the SNP to win the by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse – with Reform UK finishing third. Victor Davy Russell secured 8,559 votes, ahead of the SNP’s Katy Loudon on 7,957 and Ross Lambie of Reform on 7,088. Adam Ramsay reports for Bella.

In Hamilton town centre yesterday: fleets of earnest Labour automatons, a ranting racist with handmade banners “Stop the boats, vote Reform!”, FBU activists in firefighter uniforms leafleting against Faragism, a Scottish Socialist Party gaggle accurately analysing the problems of society but struggling to influence it, and then, suddenly, an Imperial March of Reform activists, in their white and blue rosettes. I recognised the pompous strut of their Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr – a defected Tory – and stopped him for a second – “Are you going to win?”. He was professionally cautious – before joining the stormtroopers on their battlebus, which drove off to a couple of horn hoots, a couple of boos and mostly just traffic.

But beyond the small stage at the top of the high street, the energy was low. After a day chatting with voters in both Hamilton and Stonehouse, I concluded this wasn’t a “I hate them all; they’re all corrupt” by-election; it was a gentler “I don’t really care much for any of them” by-election. Perhaps because the cause – a tragic death rather than a resignation in scandal. Reform – though they’d do well – probably wouldn’t win, I thought. Which meant the SNP probably had it.

I was wrong about the latter.

Despite the fact that the SNP are now well ahead of Labour in the Scottish polls, Labour won the seat.

To understand this surprise victory, the first thing to do is to look not at the percentages, but the numbers. In 2021, the SNP got 16,761 votes. Labour got 12,179, the Tories, 6,332, and the Lib Dems, 1,012.

This time, the SNP vote fell to 7,957, Labour’s, to 8,559, Reform got 7,088, and the Tories, 1,621. Greens snuck ahead of Lib Dems on 695 and 533 votes respectively.

In other words, as it always does in a by-election, turnout fell. In fact, it fell by less than usual – I suspect both because the Farage show turned out some who wouldn’t otherwise have bothered to vote for it, and others to vote against. But fall, it did.

In a context of falling turnout, the question is always who can get voters to show up. And who can’t. And it turns out, the answer to the former question is Labour. The answer to the latter is the SNP.

There are three explanations for this. The first is about institutions and logistics. The backdrop for the drama I opened this piece with was the Labour candidate’s office, a large shop front right in Hamilton town centre. It was buzzing all day, with earnest activists, including lots of sharp-suited MPs (I waved to my own, over from Edinburgh East). They would arrive and leave in teams, presumably allocated their knock-up runs, then coming back for more.

The consequence of the Westminster election last year is that Scottish Labour is – as an organisation with staff, logistical capacity, and an ability to organise stuff – back. Whatever opinion polls show, that is a significant political fact. The SNP, meanwhile, lost a limb of its infrastructure. Its membership is – famously – down. It may just be chance, but, despite seeing multiple Labour, Green, Reform and even SSP activists, I didn’t spy a single SNP canvasser (though voters certainly had earlier in the week).

The second is about the propensity to vote. Labour supporters are, on the whole, wealthier than the SNP’s. And wealthier people are more likely to turn out every time, less likely to have the kind of complicated lives that make it hard to show up, less alienated from politics.

The third is about enthusiasm.

You might tell a pollster that you prefer John Swinney’s SNP to Keir Starmer’s Labour. But you might also – as pretty much everyone I spoke to yesterday said – think both are pretty pants, that your preferred party isn’t offering you anything to get excited about. And so, when it comes to actually finding the kids’ shoes and getting them out the door so you can all go to the polling station, you might just decide that it’s too much faff this time. Or it might just slip your mind, as more important facts of daily life take over.

It’s hard to hate John Swinney – no one I spoke to yesterday was rude about him. But then, no one mentioned him at all. It’s hard to point to anything objectionable he has done. But I doubt anyone could have gestured towards anything he had done.

Four years ago, the SNP won a storming victory in the Holyrood election, because people were excited to go and vote for Nicola Sturgeon. To get to that position, she also had to do and say things which meant some people were excited to go and vote against her.

Swinney’s gentle technocracy has calmed the hatred. But it’s calmed everything down so much that previous SNP voters couldn’t find the motivation to show up.

In by-elections, that’s a disaster. And it’s a reminder that the Holyrood general election next year isn’t a done deal. Opportunity is afoot for anyone who can find a way to get people excited.