Historian James Hawes: ‘The UK Is Finished – Scottish Independence Is Inevitable’
This from Holyrood Sources explores the disintegration of the UK. Hawes argues that 2029 will be the death-knell for the Union when it becomes clear that Labour cannot defend us from a “red-blooded Tory England” and that the myth of devolved government – the poisoned chalice – of “responsibility with no power” – will be revealed as a dead end.
Also worth watching in light of Gabriel McKeon’s piece The Fractured Future Of Britain in which he writes: ”
“The cumulative effect of economic exclusion, social disenfranchisement, and a profound sense of abandonment is pushing Britain’s youth towards a great rejection of the existing system’s status quo. Growing numbers are turning to the ideological fringes in search of retribution against a broken system, not driven by a desire to shape future policy, but to totally overhaul the existing structure. This is why the current wave of radicalisation is not occurring as a monolithic movement, but is instead totally bifurcated, with parallel trends forming across the far-left and the far-right in equal measure. Though their stated ambitions may appear to differ, these are not contradictory forces but two sides of the same coin, representing a wholesale rejection of an antagonistic system that needs to be overcome, not engaged with.”
“In those already somewhat left of centre, a deep-seated hostility towards capitalism is taking root, driven by an interpretation from their lived experiences that the free market can only deliver insecurity and inequality. As a consequence, two-thirds of young people have stated that they would prefer to live in a socialist economic system, with the vast majority believing that the current capitalist system is to blame for many of the nation’s crises, given that it inherently fuels selfishness and greed. This no longer represents a mild move towards the left as a form of temporary youthful rebellion, but instead indicates an entrenched rejection of the current system and a desire to replace it with a radical socialist regime, in search of fairness and justice.”
… and Gerry Hassan’s article Scotland and Independence need a new approach and agenda in which he writes:
“Scottish politics is now a Groundhog Day ritual. The SNP pretend independence is on the cards while unionists claim the union is under threat. The exhaustion of the political class and dearth of ideas is plain to see; while the bitterness of culture wars around the trans debate have affected the Greens and a generation of feminist campaigners.”
“Eleven years on from the 2014 indyref, there has been no strategic reset in independence. Nor has there been any strategic rethinking in the union. All of which means much of the debate is a predictable dance; while the SNP pretend progress to independence is continuing.”
Independents For Independence?
Is this where it’s heading?
I read the opinion piece by Gerry Hassan referenced in this article. He opines that Scottish nationalism is broken, not in a sloganeering way but in reality. I see nothing that makes me question that opinion.
I was a committed SNP member but left in the periods of drift and inaction. I did continue, however, as a member of my local Yes group; in those meetings, a month ot two back, I heard the suggestion that there is a groundswell of opinion that wants to radically shake up the SNP party to refocus on the real aim of independence rather the continued management of the crumbs we get from Westminster. I was sufficiently gladdened enough to rejoin the party.
In today’s “National” there is a story on an upcoming meeting in Perth where a fair number of branches are pushing to get things done. Graeme McCormic is named as one of the leaders of the campaign. Let us see what comes out of this and perhaps things might begin to move.
The SNP need to appear radical again. Some of the likes of the pro-Palestinian protesters who ambushed John Swinney would have been in the vanguard of the independence movement ten years ago, but have now found a new religion and the danger is that younger voters see international or British progressivism as a more attractive focal point than Scottish nationalism. Gaza is fast eclipsing independence as a cause, in the way that Brexit did in the period 2016-2019.
The point made by Mr Hawes that the UK will fall apart is one which, increasingly, I have thought likely, because of the growing inequality, alienation and polarisation of views. This was something the other two participants in the discussion did not engage with. They continued to replay the arguments of 2014.
If the UK falls apart, what do we do? The south of England will seek to maintain its wealth and power, but realise that it can no longer exert control over the rest of England, Wales, Scotland and the north of Ireland. The latter is likely to merge with the rest of Ireland, which, since Brexit is has been moving towards. But, the rest of us will have to make what we can of the fluid situation as it evolves.
For us in Scotland, holding the majority of the UK territorial waters and their strategic military value to what Mr Hawes called the English empire and their remaking oil and gas resources plus the increasingly realisable renewable energy which underpins Sterling, we could face a situation of occupation similar to that which occurred following the almost successful Jacobite uprising of 1745. Or we could grasp the thistle and accept that we are going to have to build a nation.
Apologies, ‘remaking’ in the final paragraph should be ‘remaining’
A fundamental misrepresentation of what is at stake, summed up in the closing statements about the ‘English Empire’ having dwindled to this ‘archipelago’, presumably the British Isles. No, the British Empire still has global reach, as Nigel Farage’s comments on the Chagos Islands should make clear.
I don’t know much about this period, but the Irish independence movement’s shift from royalism to republicanism must be crucial in understanding that the question was never a simple binary, and that set the tone ever since. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89amon_de_Valera#Founding_of_Fianna_F%C3%A1il
Look to Israel and India to see how British constitutions have shifted into apartheid and towards fascism. Look to the Caribbean to see how opposition to British constitutions goes much deeper than a rejection of monarchy.
Why is so much of the Scottish Independence debate not recognise the political reality that the rational option is, like for Ireland and Caribbean countries, a break from theocratic hereditary royalist Empire? There is no simple binary. If Scotland retained the monarchy, it would be as trapped as British colonies were within the Anglo-British imperial sphere. If Scotland retained a similar British quasi-Constitution, large swathes of policy would be outwith formal ‘democratic’ influence. And how many English nationalists want to give up the UK permanent seat on the UN Security Council anyway?
An Independent republic, with a written constitution and bill of rights. That is what we should aspire to. Rid ourselves of the corrupt monarchy and have a land tax on all who aspire to live in Scotland. I am also attracted to the disbursement of funds to ensure equality for all.
Bill
Certainly, James Hawes makes a compelling case that Faragism, as an English rather than British nationalist movement, could tear the Union asunder. But I’m very sceptical that there’s anything inevitable about this, as he asserts. We’ve heard it before, with the ‘inevitable collapse of capitalism’. Of course, he in effect hedges his bets, by saying that when the Union will actually end is a mere detail …
“parallel trends forming across the far-left and the far-right in equal measure. Though their stated ambitions may appear to differ, these are not contradictory forces but two sides of the same coin.”
So, those who oppose and try to prevent fascist thugs from setting fire to hotels housing asylum seekers are simply the other side of the same coin as the fascist thugs setting fire to hotels housing asylum seekers?