Holyrood, the Senedd and the Green Surge
Yesterday, the Herald ran with a new poll on their front page. Political Editor Andrew Learmonth wrote: “Reform UK is on course to return 22 MSPs at next year’s Holyrood election — making Nigel Farage’s party the second largest in the Scottish Parliament, a new Survation poll suggests. It is the first time a poll has Reform in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes — overtaking Labour.”
“While the SNP remains Scotland’s largest party – John Swinney would be around 10 seats short of a majority, throwing his independence strategy into chaos.”
The polling was commissioned by @IPPRScotland.
The poll, if it came to be translated into actual seats, would be a seismic change in Scottish politics. We are witnessing the collapse of the Labour Party in Scotland, and the replacement of the Scottish Conservatives, wholesale, with Reform UK. This Labour collapse has just been witnessed in Wales. As Will Hayward writes on the Caerphilly by-election [Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store ]: “Labour has been the largest party in Wales for over 100 years, leading the Welsh government since the start of devolution in 1999. It won the Caerphilly seat in 2021 with 46% of the vote. Four years later, it has ended up with just 11%.”
The Caerphilly Calamity has not gone unnoticed north of the border. The normally loyal Daily Record notes [Scottish Labour figures believe Keir Starmer will quit if SNP wins Holyrood election]:
Scottish Labour sources believe Starmer’s struggling Government is to blame and claim the PM will pay a price in May if Holyrood slips away.
One insider said: “I think he will be gone quickly. His poll ratings are so poor that a defeat in Scotland would be the final nail in his coffin.”
SNP figures are, at least outwardly, jubilant. As former MP John Nicolson posted saying: “Huge SNP lead in latest poll. Labour has collapsed. Tories a distant fourth. Alba still on a derisory 1%.”
Any jubilation should be kept in check (John assures me he is not jubilant). Such a result might be filled with schadenfreude for the demise of Scottish Labour but it would be extremely problematic in any constitutional negotiations if Reform had a sizeable presence in Scotland.
But there are other seismic forces and factors at play across Britain. What does Labour collapse mean in England and Wales? How far will the Green Surge impact across England? One recent poll showed them taking 24 seats: Birkenhead (GAIN); Brighton Kemptown (GAIN); Brighton Pavilion; Bristol Central Bristol East (GAIN); Bristol North East (GAIN); Bristol North West (GAIN); Bristol South (GAIN); Cambridge (GAIN); Hackney North (GAIN); Hackney South (GAIN); Huddersfield (GAIN); Leeds Central (GAIN); Leeds South (GAIN); Lewisham North (GAIN); Manchester Central (GAIN); Manchester Rusholme (GAIN); Manchester Withington (GAIN); North Herefordshire Norwich South (GAIN); Reading Central (GAIN); Sheffield Central (GAIN); Stratford and Bow (GAIN); Waveney Valley.
Stating the obvious, Ross Greer is not Zack Polanski, but some polling sees the SGP as beneficiaries of a UK surge and hitting not ten but fifteen seats at Holyrood. A key factor could have been to make alliances with other parties on the left. But, as Gerry Hassan notes [Scottish Greens and the rise of radical green politics in 2025 | The National]:
“The recent Scottish Green conference voted against co-operating with the Jeremy Corbyn-Zarah Sultana Your Party, unlike the English and Welsh party, and this has blown up in their face. Within days, three Glasgow councillors and Ellie Gomersall, second on the Glasgow list behind Harvie, defected from the Greens to Your Party.”
Hassan suggests that the Scottish Greens may have an important part to play in future Scottish politics:
“A green agenda with greater substance, depth and reach is possible in Scotland – building on the Green surge already evident down south. But it does require serious work, recognising that radicalism requires more than rhetoric and posturing, and developing a language which is not hectoring or, on occasion, illiberal of other opinions.”
There’s another scenario in which the SNP are seen as the bulwark against Reform UK. This is what happened in Caerphilly where huge numbers of people voted tactically to stop Reform. But this didn’t happen in a vacuum. As Will Hayward writes:
“Even though Caerphilly has the lowest rates of immigration among Wales’ 22 local authorities (over 97% of people there were born in the UK), Reform still put asylum and immigration at the heart of its campaign. It lamented the Welsh government’s “nation of sanctuary” policy, which is overwhelmingly targeted at helping Ukraine refugees and takes up just 0.038% of the Welsh government’s budget. This was hardly a winning strategy (Reform finished up with 36% of the vote compared to Plaid’s 47%). The party was also betting that it would get significant turnout from politically disengaged voters. The problem is that those voters sometimes live up to their name.”
“By contrast, Plaid Cymru did well for a variety of reasons. It had a strong local candidate who had been a local councillor for 50 years and successfully pushed the narrative that it was the way to stop Reform. But perhaps its biggest selling point was its unequivocal opposition to, and rejection of, all that Reform has stood for. Whereas Keir Starmer’s UK Labour has seemingly tried to woo Reform voters who are simply never coming back by accepting the premise of Nigel Farage’s positions, Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid’s leader, has been unequivocal in his rejection of this ideology, saying that the real problem isn’t immigration, but the government’s refusal to properly target billionaires.”
Another poll published on the same day shows an SNP majority.
NEW | Poll points to SNP Holyrood MAJORITY
🟡 SNP – 66 seats (+2)
➡️ REF – 16 seats (+16)
🟢 GRN – 15 seats (+7)
🔴 LAB – 14 seats (-8)
🟠 LD – 9 seats (+5)
🔵 CON – 9 seats (-22)
Some have claimed this poll is an outlier, but all polling shows five common features:
- The SNP vote being remarkably resilient despite incumbency
- Scottish Labour collapse
- The Scottish Tories being obliterated and replaced by Reform UK
- A Green surge
- ALBA gaining no seats
These, apart from the last, are a matter of degree,
The results will be dependent on the extent to which the SNP can convince voters that they have a plan for independence (not a secret one); that they have the ability to govern with competence; and that they are the only force that can prevent, and defeat rule from a UK Reform government.
Also at play is how Reform UK manages under campaign conditions. They run the risk of being completely exposed at Holyrood by a complete lack of leadership, policies or people. Their tactic of using Farage to give themselves a profile will be highly dangerous in Scotland.
One factor I see is a febrile mood in politics whereby political affiliation is very fragile and people flood towards new options. The stable support for SNP is encouraging. Perhaps populism is having less impact here but we do all we can to support stable solutions.
Another striking feature of both polls is a highly fragmented opposition, with little likelihood of co-operation between the opposition parties because of their radically different ideologies.
The seventh (reconvened) Scottish Parliament looks set to have yet another under-scrutinised government. The problem will be exacerbated by the expected low skillset of the big bloc of ReformUK MSPs, and that party’s preference for outrage over scrutiny.
This outcome would demonstrate that the Holyrood election system is not proportional. The constituency element is too dominant- there are not enough list MSPs to reflect how people really voted.
To get half the seats on a third of the constituency vote would inevitably lead to the opposition claiming there was no mandate for a referendum. They might have a point. One reason Labour is so unpopular is that it wasn’t that popular in 2024 either.
We can only hope that Reform underperforms next May.
Steve – I have strong suspicion that Westminster will claim there is no mandate for a referendum regardless of result. A majority of MSP’s who stood on a policy of an independence referendum is only democratic way to decide whether there should be a referendum (as was case in 2021). There is a case for defining frequency to maybe every 10 years (ie every second term). Remember ultimately if voters don’t want another referendum they can always vote in a majority of MSP’s opposing one.
The Holyrood D’Hondt system gives a better representation of electorate wishes than FPTP but the multiparty system is now challenging this system. List MSP’s are a requirement of this system but I think MSP’s should be limited to two electoral terms as a List MSP to avoid the Murdo Fraser boomerang situation.
I fear that having an uncharismatic leader and winning emphatically but without enthusiasm could lead to the SNP going the same way as Starmer’s Labour after this election. Though this could depend on whether they achieve a majority, as a push for a referendum would be a dynamo for them. Without a majority they hand a bludgeon to unionists when the SNP’s remarkable success in the last 10 years is clearly enough proof that a second referendum is desired and necessary. The SNP has lost momentum since Humza Yousaf started ditching Sturgeon policies without putting his own vision in place, something that has continued under Swinney.
Unfortunately I don’t think it’s possible to get a referendum without a strong SNP, and I fear a scenario where they fall short of a majority, end up directionless and unpopular, and oversee a resurgence of anti-immigrant sentiment coming from the discontent.
“dependent on the extent to which the SNP can convince voters that they have a plan for independence”
Have you any idea for how many times and for how long we’ve been served up shit like that from a wilfully blind “pro Indy” commentariat.
Sober up. They are not interested in independence. They’re the Union’s first line of defence.
Jake, who is “they” in your comment? Who is the intended target of “They are not interested in independence. They’re the Union’s first line of defence”?
The SNP leader?
The cabinet?
The SNP parliamentary party?
The whole SNP membership?
Jake’s a wee bit miffed that Alba was such a flop
“Was”, indeed. It looks very over.
Nope, not a member of Alba and never voted for them. My last vote was for the SNP in 2015. Then in aftermath of the Leave vote I very quickly realised the SNP had been turned. A genuine pro Indy party would have come ripping out the gate and effortlessly parlayed us Indy or at least an indyref2. But the SNP decided to save England from itself rather than save Scotland from England. That’s been the whole point of the SNP for a decade, and probably a decade more.
Jake do you have any actual evidence that the SNP’s participation in UK-wide anti-Brexit politics was a an actual decision to “save England from itself rather than save Scotland from England”?
As far as I can see you are attributing to the SNP values which none of its personnel have ever espoused.
There is no way you’re seriously that obtuse or dense.
I’m out of the democracy game until either an indyref2, the SNP completely purges and overhauls itself, or a new credible alternative supplants the SNP. Which means a long, long, long time whichever option turns out to come to pass.
I can’t vote for traitors. I can’t vote for class traitors. I can’t vote for unionists. I can’t vote for nu-puritan, fundamentalist fruitloops and reality-deniers. And that’s all that’s on offer, and will be for a while.
Jake, so as I thought you have no evidence for your claim that the SNP’s participation in UK-wide anti-Brexit politics was a an actual decision to “save England from itself rather than save Scotland from England”.
And as I expected, you chose to respond to a civil question with personal abuse.
Yes, the post-2014 SNP has clearly failed to advance the cause of independence. I agree with you about that. But there are many much simpler and better-evidenced explanations for that, and per Occam’s Razor, I’m going with the straightforward explnation.
But, you want to go down the simple shouty path of blaming failure on “traitors”. So you need to believe that failure is the product of deliberate betrayal.
But tell me: when you have hanged the “traitors”, what then?
Spare me the condescension.
You have precisely zero “evidence” that the SNP did NOT make conscious decisions to prioritise England/UK over Scotland in the aftermath of the Leave vote. Are you one of these silly people who believes smoking guns are left lying around all over the place, but only ever by the people you oppose and for you and your smartitude to pick up and wave around?
The more times I go round the block, the clearer it gets to me that Occam was an arse, and the people that like to drag Occam out of their arse and throw him on the table in the middle of a discussion even more so.
The SNP is a suspiciously spectacular failure. They have done literally nothing right in a decade while holding half the country’s political support hostage. That’s not an accident or coincidence. Too much coincidence is no coincidence at all. The SNP runs purely on faith, inertia and sophistry. It’s pathologically tame when it should be pathologically insurgent. It’s an obstacle more than it’s an advocate. It’s just a jobs machine. It’s an entity with no direction or purpose, and increasingly doesn’t even pretend to be.
Anyone arguing the SNP operates in anything resembling good faith or is a victim of circumstances in Scottish politics is completely lost. Gone. Blind. Out to lunch and not coming back.
There is no hope whatsoever in the SNP. Just look and listen to them. Wall-to-wall morons, clowns and puppets. Most of them can barely read aloud off of a bit of paper. THAT is going to outfox and defeat the British state, is it? John Swinney couldn’t bring himself to say Boo! to an earthworm. But he’ll end the UK?
“What then?” you ask. I’ve no idea. But I know with 100% certainty that the answer most definitely isn’t anything that’s on offer at the moment or on the horizon. The SNP have completely signed up for managed decline and grift, just like “Labour” under Starmer, The Manchurian PM. There is nowhere credible for a pro Indy person that sees them for what they really are to go.
Every flavour of payroll Yes is either worthless or traitorous. I defy you to deny that with a straight face.
So Jake is now demanding evidence to refute his own unevidenced, hyperbolic assertions, and at the same time complains of being condescended to. Right.