Life Comes at you Fast
Only a few days ago the entire Unionist commentariat were jubilant. Rachel Reeves had Shot the Nationalist Fox (again) and stamped down those belligerent Scots by telling them they’d never be allowed to vote on independence again, and it didn’t matter how they voted or who they elected.
Across the board, the consensus was that this was a shot in the arm to Scottish Labour, as the Chancellor told us she gave Scotland £820 million “because Anas Sarwar asked us to.”
Sadly, such jubilation did not last too long. The Sunday Times rolled out their big guns for an exclusive, combining the talents of Aubrey Allegretti (chief political correspondent at The Times), John Boothman (Political Correspondent) and Daniel Sanderson (Scottish Political Editor) to produce this piece claiming “Scottish MPs may challenge Keir Starmer over election ‘slaughter’ fear.”
The trio write that: “Sir Keir Starmer could face a leadership challenge early next year from Scottish MPs who fear the party will be “slaughtered” in the Holyrood elections in May. Senior party sources in Westminster said the prime minister was “very unpopular” with voters on the doorstep, jeopardising Labour’s opportunity to oust the Scottish National Party (SNP).”
They claim that “Scottish MPs are among the most fervent in pressing for him to be replaced” and quote three anonymous sources.
Number One MP: “The situation is untenable. The question for those of us with elections next May is ‘is there time for a change’, or do we wait to be slaughtered? My preference is before May.”
Number Two MP: “The SNP is badly disliked and eminently beatable. And if we’re not able to mount a proper attack on them, that’s a really worrying sign. My concern is not that Anas [Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader] can’t do that. It’s Keir that’s very unpopular on the doorstep.”
Number Three MP: “We have everything to gain and little to lose by getting rid of Keir. With elections round the corner, we should be in contention for first place in the polls. Instead, we’re at risk of finishing in a far behind second, or staying stuck in third place.”
The identity of the three remains a mystery.
But such an article would not have been published with the bylines of Allegretti, Boothman and Sanderson if it had no substance.
But some of the mystery MPs colleagues are predictably raging. Paul Hutcheon gives voice to the howls of rage in the Daily Record, quoting a ‘senior party figure’ who dismissed the idea of a contest ahead of the Holyrood election. Hutcheon writes: “A Scottish Labour MP has said claims Westminster colleagues are planning to topple Keir Starmer are “absolute and total bollocks”. The parliamentarian hit out over claims in The Times that the Prime Minister could face a leadership challenge from Scottish MPs in the New Year.”
The Daily Record reported a Scottish Labour MP saying in response to The Times article: “Absolute and total bollocks. Scottish MPs are very happy with the Budget. The Scottish group is probably the most united.”
While another said that the Prime Minister was about as popular as “dog***t” with voters.
More as we have it.
“The SNP is badly disliked and eminently beatable.”
Meanwhile, back here on Earth ….
‘Meanwhile, back here on Earth’, seventeen months ago, the SNP lost 40 MPs (and gained one).
In the same general election the SNP vote fell by half a million.
It is difficult to think of any significant SNP successes, as opposed to Starmer failures, in the intervening period.
FA – the fall in Labour support since GE is the due to being the incumbent government during a period of economic stagnation and electorate discontent. Labour benefited from this at GE in Scotland to give them a victory which didn’t involve gaining many more actual votes. Dissatisfaction with Labour in government has set in quickly and their poll ratings have consequently fallen back.
SNP support has fallen back since last Holyrood election but they are still on course to win next years Holyrood election which will mean they have won 5 successive Holyrood elections. This would represent unprecedented success in 21st century elections across western democracies.
Opponents and critics of SNP such as yourself may care to reflect why this has occurred?
Why might the SNP win 5 successive elections to the devolved Scottish Parliament ?
For similar reasons that SLAB had a similar level of success among Scottish voters at general elections between 1964 and 2010.
SLAB claimed that they were radical and that they could defend the interests of Scottish voters.
Perhaps more important, SLAB was committed to statist policies which a huge section of Scottish voters approved of – and still does. These statist policies work very well, materially, for this section of voters. For the rest of the population, not so much.
I don’t disagree but I would add dislike of Westminster Tory governments with policies which had no popular mandate in Scotland was always a significant factor as well.
There was always historically a significant section of SNP support that was primarily a result of the desire for independence. With polling showing support for independence around 50% mark and SNP support lagging behind this is possibly even more so the case in 2025. This is undoubtedly a (possibly the) most significant factor in SNP success in Holyrood elections in 21st century. To deny this reality isn’t just contrary it is not facing up to reality.