The Numbers Game

Politics & Polling in the Independence Referendum. Polls are the Campaign. An exclusive look at the dark art of political polling in the Scottish Independence Referendum.

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  1. Stuart Muir says:

    Comres have chosen the audience for tonight’s referendum debate, any thoughts James?

  2. James is travelling so may not get back to you any time soon.

    Meanwhile (re Comres) on James’s blog – – Marcia notes that “there is an Independence question in the regular Independent on Sunday UK wide poll” and that “The Scottish sample has Yes in the lead.”

    I am pasting in Scottish-Skier’s comment on this below (August 24, 2014 at 9:18 AM):

    Modestly sized (170) subset from Comres

    How favourable or unfavourable are you towards each of the following?

    Independence for Scotland

    45% Favourable
    36% Unfavourable
    9% Neither
    11% DK

    Now that’s not the Y/N question, but might be an indicator of leanings. It’s also a subset so normal caveats apply.

    36% unfavourable is not far from long term historical No values too.

    What might make it less suspicious is that we also have Westminster VI:

    20% Con
    29% Lab
    6% Lib
    37% SNP

    With SNP on 3% of the national Total.

    So, not very SNP at all (they’ve been getting into the 40’s and 4% of the national total quite regularly) and Tories a tad on the high side. Certainly lower than running averages for the SNP.

    And whether people are favourable to Alex Salmond:

    36% Favourable
    40% Unfavourable

    Which is the opposite of Scotland-wide polls and suggests our small Scottish sample isn’t very SNP / Salmond friendly.

  3. gonzalo1 says:

    Did of the sample come from a council housing scheme or do they not count?

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