Lame Duck Soup
Marie-Le Pen, Geert Wilders, and Mateo Salvini are delighted. Nigel Farage called it a “victory for decent people”, then suffering with a bout of instant amnesia added: “Britain voted to leave without a bullet being fired.”
Osborne is toast and Corbyn is a dead man walking, Osborne after spouting hysteria, Corbyn after saying not very much at all. As we speak the Tory High Command is negotiating its own power deals behind closed doors as we hurtle backwards to a future dominated by the far-right.
Their triumph may be short-lived. The union can’t survive this. With all 32 local authorities in Scotland voting to remain in Europe, we’re the only nation in the UK to vote in our entirety to stay within the EU. To resist that will be a provocation that will not be tolerated, and efforts to prevent direct negotiations between Edinburgh and Brussels will also be rejected. It was telling that Cameron mentioned that on the steps of Downing Street this morning suggesting that Scotland and Northern Ireland ‘be included’ in talks.
I don’t think it works like that Ham.
It’s not just a constitutional crisis and tragedy, its an inter-generational one too. People under 50 voted for a very different future to the rest of the country and the 18-24 age range voted at almost 80% for Remain.
This is a broken divided country undermined by a campaign of lies and fear. Immigration isn’t fixed. The elite aren’t undermined. Jacob Rees-Mogg called it a “vote against the establishment” while Michael Gove and Boris Johnson carve up their pact and plot positions.
Material Girl
Unionist scribes were desperately hopeful of an ambiguous vote from Scotland – with pens at the ready to write us off. They didn’t get their result. The idea that there is no difference between our countries, that some commentators have desperately hung on to over the last few years now looks like the work of a sad fantasist.
As the Better Together promises unspool before us we’re told by the Scottish Secretary David Mundell that “the Scottish government will be involved in negotiations over a Brexit.”
How could that possibly be anything other an exercise in international humiliation?
The promise that we could only remain in Europe within the Union is the principle lie of the referendum lies shattered before us and is now motivating people who were previously passionate NO campaigners and advocates to change their tune.
Today we remain European Scots. Our FM must immediately lead talks directly with Europe entirely separately from our discredited powerless Prime Minister.
As Adam Ramsay writes: “Scotland is an ancient European country. In 1707, we chose to go into a union with England and Wales, and in 2014 we chose to ratify that union. In 1975 we chose to join the European Community and in 2016, we voted overwhelmingly to ratify that choice.”
He suggests we negotiate a deal similar to that which shapes Denmark, the Faroes and Greenland’s different relationships to Europe.
For those of you who think this is far-fetched you should read the words of Manfred Weber, the leader of the conservative bloc in the European Parliament who is close to Merkel, says there are “upcoming decisions on the national levels” for Scotland and Northern Ireland “to go another way.” He said: “It is up to them but Europe to welcome new member states. That is totally clear. Those who want to stay are welcomed in the European Union.”
October Surprise
While the Brexit campaign can be seen as an orgy of opportunism for Boris Johnson, he seems the most likely to succeed in the race for the ‘top prize’. This is how the media have been framing the political debate for months.
Good luck to him, he will inherit a disunited kingdom, with immigration centre-stage, an ongoing austerity agenda, a pile of debt presided over by George Osborne, and a shambles of international relations not seen since Suez. His party is bitter and divided and he faces a constitutional crisis on two fronts.
Yesterday Cathal Foley wrote that Brexit could lead to a United Ireland, an Independent Scotland, and a Little England. This morning that looks more likely than ever.
This sounds like sour grapes.
Whats up Mike Small? Scotland votes No to independence, but England votes Yes. Is that your problem. You have to give credit where credit is due. England were brave enough to reject Project Fear.
England embraced Project Hate.
If you think this is ‘Independence for England’ you are wildly deluded.
‘England embraced Project Hate’.
That’s over 15 million voters put in their place.
English voters showed some backbone they rejected the project fear innuendo and stuck two fingers in an Establishment direction.
Starved of an effective and expansive debate on the EU issue voters here absorbed the overwhelming support for remain from 3 main party leaders in Holyrood. Had an effective debate taken place more would have voted to leave.
I am completely opposed to Independence based on EU membership that takes control away from Holyrood. I would suggest that the SNP need a NATO type debate on what future Scotland should pursue.
Thanks to England we now get automatic control of unreserved matters Fisheries and Agriculture. Devolution powers grow again – use them and give us a period of growth and stability . Campaign fatigue will threaten any future hastily cobbled together Indy 2.
Don’t you find it at all incongruous that the people telling you to exalt in ‘a vote against the establishment’ are in fact the establishment?
Drop your breeks and bend over cos there’s a right royal establishment shafting coming your way full force as soon as they can agree the power shift.
Naw yi don’t get automatic powers over. MOST of them are reserved to Wheeshtminster
David Allan,
You make two good points in your last para that some Scottish Nationalists need to be reminded of.
1. The out come of the referendum on Thursday will result in a lot of EU powers coming to Holyrood. How many? More than an independent Scotland in EU?
2. A rush to hold a second Scottish referendum may not be the best strategy for supporters of Scottish independence.
The Editor,
So let me try and get my head around this. Scottish Independence is a good thing. English Independence is bad. I apologise, I was always been a slow learner but I get there in the end, if I’ve got your logic right, could you explain the rationale. This appears to me as twisted reasoning.
Yes, yes, yes.
I just don’t see the SNP is ready for another referendum.
The white paper envisaged sliding into the EU on rUK coat-tails – especially currency and central bank.
Now we have to have those ready for our application.
This is moving quicker than that.
I’ve been involved in EU accession. It’s a multi-year process, even if you aee a functioning member state.
Remember, it’s a club of nation states, not (yet) a single state with 98 regions.
Yesterday’s vote in Scotland throws up what might be called the ‘Edinburgh Problem.’ It is also the Scottish Problem but the voting in Edinburgh is very clear cut.
In 2014, over 60% of voters in Edinburgh opted to stay in the UK.
In 2016, well over 70% of voters in Edinburgh opted to stay in the EU.
With the UK set to leave the EU, voters in Edinburgh and the rest of Scotland may have to make a choice between the UK and the EU.
I am far from convinced that they would choose the EU.
(Significantly 84.5% of voters turned out in 2014. Only 67 % did so yesterday.)
Writing about a ‘provocation that will not be tolerated’ is wildly over the top.
A serious analysis might conclude that, in a time of economic and social turbulence, the idea of Scottish independence may well be no more attractive to voters in places like Edinburgh than it was in 2014.
From a purely economic standpoint the rUK is a far more important market for Scotland that the EU. The will be an interesting choice to be made between being in a political and commercial union with Europe vs. one with the rUK.
Hold on, the Leave camp are all over the news right now saying that no change on trade will happen between the independent UK and Europe. Trade agreements will happen, free flow of goods etc etc.
So the obvious assumption from that is that there would be no detriment to an independent Scotland within the EU trading with the UK. It appears that the Scots will not have to make a choice on alliances, we will have access to all markets, as would the UK.
Good piece, Mike. Bella is needed now more than ever.
The issue which stands out most for me was the power of the Sun, Daily Mail and Telegraph to yank the chains of the older voters brought up on a diet of Zulu and the Dambusters every Boxing Day for 50 years.
A revitalised Yes Campaign needs to re engage the young to invite their older relatives and neighbours to reappraise the narrative created by the elite owned press.
I sincerely hope we don’t give any house room to the Scottish Sun
Keep up the good work, Bella
John Page
The Scottish Sun didn’t advocate a Brexit.
It has a different editorial line.
Make no mistake, this referendum showed the powers of the tabloids in pandering to English nationalism. When you have what are effectively political billboards advocating “INDEPENDENCE DAY!” in every shop in England, it has an effect.
As much as people may turn their nose up, if the Scottish Sun takes Scotland’s side in a future independence referendum, it could have a huge impact. The YES side achieved 45% with no tabloid support last time.
As much as people dislike Rupert Murdoch, it’s better to have the Sun on your side, than against you. That’s the reality of it, and snobbery will get us nowhere.
I don’t think snobbery is the correct term……..gagging inducing, visceral disgust might be more appropriate.
Sorry I don’t want anything to do with Murdoch
Thanks
John Page
Neither do many who voted Leave. But they were on the same side, and they got what they wanted with the help of the Sun and the other tabloids.
Just making the point that there is a VERY good reason why politicians can’t snub the popular media, when they still have a lot of influence.
If Scotland wants to achieve independence, then we need more papers on our side, and we need to at least not cut off our nose to spite our face if YES politicians accept support from the Sun should it occur.
Better to view it as a means to an end, however distasteful.
Thank you. I respect your position but I think in the present circumstances we needn’t have to court Murdoch……my gut says I would rather tell Murdoch where to go……..but I would be happy to look analytically and objectively at the evidence…….where would we find out how in the current circumstances how this unpleasant publication could make a difference?
John Page
Onwards,
I have a problem. Please help. Why is English nationalism a bad thing but Scootish nationalism good?
Well, well! The turkeys down south (my fellow countrymen and women) have voted for a very early Christmas and handed the butcher a nice, shiny new cleaver. So be it, they call it democracy. But so do they in Scotland and Northern Ireland and I expect both to want to remain in the EU and in the new post-Brexit atmosphere I expect the EU to accommodate them enthusiastically. The old rule book has been torn up so I think the EU would offer both continuing membership on existing terms, with goodwill – why not – they’re both in it already. Businesses will be tempted to leave the remains of the UK – the desire for profit is emotionless, after all – and relocate, and Scotland and NI could well be major beneficiaries of that. So its not all bad, and at least Cameron has been knocked off his perch.
John Page, please don’t write in such a disparaging way about older voters. This blanket approach is unhelpful at best. I’m 64 so in the demographic but I voted Remain because I’m Scottish European, a believer in co-operation and tackling the overriding issues, climate change for one, in this way. Patronising blethers about Dambusters and Zulu be damned. I’m a child of the Sixties who has never quite got over my hippy days I know, but no one I know of my age fits your description of Sun reading, unthinking Brexiters either!
I am 61 and am merely observing the data (see the graph above) from both IndyRef and Brexit which showed that a majority of older voters follow MSM BBC and print media and voted against Scottish Indy and for Brexit.
Good for you and your acquaintances (and me) that we don’t lap up Zulu and Dambusters……..but plenty do.
I hope you agree that work needs to be done on older voters. A lot of work to overcome the insidious power of the Sun, Scotsman, Telegraph, Daily Mail and Express……….
Thank you
John Page
I’m slightly older and I said at the time of the IndyRef that many of us older voters are too comfortable having done very well out of the post-war social consensus and the economic good times (which ended with Thatcher) so why vote for change when we’re doing very nicely thank you and Independence or Brexit won’t really affect us if we’ve got a decent pension and our own home, some savings and other assets. This is one of the stultifying mindsets we need to tackle to win those of us who voted No/Leave. It must be very depressing for those starting out in life.
Mike Small is correct. The constitutional crisis deepens. The Brexit result only highlights the mess the UK is in. There is only one solution for the Scots: independence.
I agree with every syllable of this analysis, but would like to add, c’mon Iceland.
Scotland’s choice is clearer than ever, i.e.:
1. to be forevermore a grudging powerless appendage to Little England;
or
2. to be a full Member State of the EU AND a self-respecting independent nation
I think the Greenland /Denmark idea could be a short term solution while the referendum is being proposed. It would mean that when article 50 is triggered, Scotland remains out of any deconstruction processes.
Should Scotland subsequently vote for independence then we would already be in the EU and not have to reconstruct bodies. Even if Scotland voted no we could still stay in the EU but remain part of the UK. It’s highly unlikely that scenario 2 would happen though.
Wouldnt really see Scotland being part of a double Union being a problem , if anything theres a financial argument that may suit those RUK companies and services here , with throughput out of Scotland with single person offices etc for export.
ITs a bit like Andorra , essentially Spain , but not so. Or Gib , Geographically Spain but not so , which I think may be a base for London Banking , but it lacks the square footage for staffing vs Scotland. The people have done a big favour for the RISE of German financials , but dont know it.
Then there is the another option , those countries that are outside of the EU proper , like Uk is for the time being , Iceland , Norway etc becoming a Nordic Union proper , along with Scotland alone or RUK , and with it comes even better negotiating trade power deals vs individual states or the EU.
However My overall view is that RUK has shot itself in the foot , thinking that the Great in Britain is long lost as a result of the EU membership , when in fact it is lost due to successive UK govts that BLAME the EU for the profit of some English like them , over the income of many so unlike them.
Those UK manufacturing jobs , the remnants of the dregs of what was left of the British car making industry that export to VW , et al , are all now defunct , especially so in Sunderland , a result which I was totally side stepped with , and have rendered their employment to follow the tracks of British Steel , Scottish and Tyneside coal and Shipyards….. and with those jobs where exactly did the EU play their part again?
There is a lot to be said now on real democracy , that is if you remove the lying from the media in its entirity. The peoples elected reps , politicians in Westminster , didnt want a Brexit , however their electorate did.
Pehaps the Scottish Indy ref has awakened a core in the English , opened a bottle that cannot be closed , and for me that is where we need to let that culture and fester to show its real face .With blaming the EU for English problems , now comes Blaming the Scots for Barnett for English problems , and rather than just a whinge on the media wind – now comes the demand for middle England made vinegar and salt for that chip on the shoulder.
What the electorate have failed to realise is that the Uk is running on a huge debt to funding scenario , which will worsen and peak in 30 years , when the UK and of course Scotland has peaked its population at pension age , and with that comes the ultimate housing bubble deflation …. The Uk though is not the only country that will experience this happening , the EU is already going there , as is China , Japan and Trumps merica.
To fund those pensions , to keep the housing bubble aflot , stop population aging peak and birth decline , well the only option is immigration , something that has run deep in the Eu ref in sentiment , with the usual culprits damping the flames with petrol.
All that will happen is the further widening of the wealth gap , those that can afford to leave the UK , to become non doms or NHR , well they will , you just need to look at France today to see that , where the wealthy have avoided taxation through buying homes in Northern Spain and over its borders towards Belgium.
And here in may lie a good thing for Scotland , with its easy commutes and multiple flights to London , ironically meaning Hs2 may well be sky bound for the wealthy to commute , rather than to import the lower waged into London instead whoom cannot afford to both live and work there. Just watch for tax changes , and courting Holyrood with further reform , I reckon the wealthy will now change their tack towards an Indy ref , and these are the people that were behind project fear.
As I much said back then , in that Scotland needed exactly this scenario for the last 10 percent to get over the numbers hurdle , well I reckon it wont be 10 percent that indy will increase by …. but a far larger number , purely as a result of yesterdays English referendum.
2014 was the birth of something bigger , or regarding the EU itself the death of something enormous.
Instead of back then when Scotland was blocked by the EU , we may well be on a situation where they would be practically begging us… with far more incentives than even the UK were even offered to remain…. defeating the need for any pound ,or euro economy question – that fudged so many decisions last time.
How easy will it be for Westminster to strip EU legislation out of Scots law?
Would Holyrood allow this to happen?
Probably easier for London to park the Scottish problem and accept that different rules will apply on each side of the border rather than force a situation which would definitely result in a formal split with Scotland.
Bringiton ,
I agree , all English exports through Scotland to the EU while it is a member seems like what the money men would push for.
What about Wales, who also voted (52.5%) for Brexit? I live there (in the Valleys) part of the year and the out voters I’ve met there are neither xenophobic nor deluded nor Little Englanders. Mostly it seems they are just sick of big business and so-called economic experts prophesying doom and gloom and telling them that ‘we know best’ while their prospects don’t actually seem to improve, and the idea of a more UK self-government seems to be appealing. Also, Leanne Wood’ and Carwyn Jones’ abysmal and hypocritical efforts in debates can’t have helped. Listening to Leanne Woods telling folk that the big businesses back Remain so we should listen to them, and the Tory dude telling her off for that since she was supposed to be a socialist, was particularly surreal.
I don’t have a strong opinion in this, having some leanings both for and against the EU, but it’s just wearing a bit thin this whole rhetoric about the sudden “far right” domination of the rest of the UK. It seems that people voted Leave for a variety of reasons. Also, independence supporters in our indyref justifiably took issue at the attempted personalization of the debate by the BBC and MSM, in their demonizing of Alex Salmond. Yet, yesterday I got an email from the Scottish Greens saying if it was a Leave result then Nigel Farage and the far right would have won – is that not the same personality politics? And so by that logic, would a Remain result have meant Cameron and Osborne and the presumably-slightly-less-far-right would have won? And we should have celebrated that?
Just a few thoughts.
Fair points Alison, the campaigns have been woeful and a lot of mis-direction has taken place. There is clearly a lot to be worried about with Europe, but rather than the immigration issue we heard about constantly I was more concerned with TTIP and the way the EU dealt with Greece and Italy.
However, one thing is undoubtedly true, the issues of poverty, unemployment, lack of investment and other problems facing the Welsh valleys are not borne of the EU, they are borne of Westminster. Of that there is little doubt. To think that a right wing, austerity led Tory Government will be the best for the Welsh Valleys is frankly unbelievable.
It’s just that over the last 5 years the likes of the BBC have concerted it’s efforts to highlight and report on EU problems, immigration issues, the NHS etc etc in an effort to protect Osbourne and his utterly failed economic plans. It’s been a masterclass in diversion and for the passive voter not seeking out alternative news it’s clear how they were going to vote.
Help me to understand what´s going on in the S. Welsh valleys. Are they so pissed off with both ineffective Labour and Plaid that they turned to UKIP is desperation? Seems a bad choice really, after all at least they do have a Nat party to represent them. If it´s not up to scratch can´t they somehow give it a bit more backbone? Duw bydi annwyl!
Sorry, I can’t really help you further as I haven’t spent enough time there to understand the ins and outs of things. They still mostly vote Labour, in quite a tribal way, according to my Welsh boyfriend. Leanne Wood got in in the Rhondda in the most recent election, taking it back from Labour, but every other Valleys seat was a Labour hold. The Welsh nationalists I’ve met mostly despair over the state of Plaid Cymru, wishing they had a more motivating (and motivated) leader like Salmond or Sturgeon to galvanise support. My boyfriend’s analysis is that Plaid are following the path of Labour since the Senedd/Assembly was set up – pursuing power but not being strong on their founding principle of independence for Wales.
Just my impressions though – these two comments have now exhausted the extent of my political awareness of the Valleys!
Also, to Tartanfever – yes, TTIP and Greece are my main EU concerns too. Agree with some of Robin McAlpine’s new article here (The Three Tasks) in that there are some bonuses to being out of the EU – “Want to run a wholly public ferry service to the Scottish islands? No problem. Want to nationalise the rail network? Nothing stopping you. Want to get public procurement rules in place so that small businesses get a fair crack of the whip? Well Scottish public procurement professionals, no EU rules to hide behind now as gargantuan contracts are handed straight to powerful multinationals.” Maybe the Brexit will give momentum to EU reform from within. Or maybe it won’t.
You won,t ever change the unionist/orange voter no matter what”no surrender” for the peepil not now not ever,theyjust can,t “see the wood for the trees”.
Fully take that on board. So we need to analyse what other segments were in the 55% and work our socks off to use the current circumstances to persuade them to change their minds.
Frightened pensioners
Lifelong Labour supporters
People with a distaste for nationalism
.??
All the time recognising that there will be an irreducible core (30%) who are British Unionists
On this occasion our opponents will do our work for us.
labour are in chaos, the people would not trust brown as far as they could throw him if they could find him and izzard are and the potter woman. Corbyn is a dead man walking, kez is a light weight spinning.
The tories, especially the fat bird who has ate all the pies will loose their May 16 gloss when the east coat. Others discover yes they really do believe in the bedroom tax and provatised NHS!
Future is so bright for nationalists that we are all going to have to wear shades!
Lastly the SNP must take off the gloves and be prepared to disrupt Westminster,
There must be about 10/15% John where we will have some chance of converting but inmo there is a hardcore of unionists that won,t ever change,they do not see themselves as Scots and have no affinity to this country,possibly one of a very few countries of the world where this occurs,sickening really.
When I did the numbers , back of fag packet I admit , after the Indy ref.
I found that in those areas that voted with a high incidence of no were those areas with High employment , combined with high percentage of English residents , from 8 to 16 percent , whom also have a lower unemployment rate than Scots in the same area , ie Edinburgh which has now voted for the EU , and of course Aberdeen , so invested into oil that when a decline came so did unemployment.
Aberdeen was promised that NSO jobs were dependent on remaining in the Uk , and found out this was lies , even without the oil price jobs. Civil servants were promised that the Union would protect jobs , and were rendered unemployed…. Thus the only other voter , the one driven by fear that voted to remain , those that need the NHS and are recieving pensions , well they should be a lot more receptive now.
This can only be a good thing , but the powers that be need to strike whlie the iron is hot , ie oil remains below 80 bucks a barrel. To also remploy those Scottish tax workers to become the Scottish version of the DWP with benefits devolved from March 2017 , and lastly to diversify Aberdeen towards , like Norway , a post carbon energy structure.
As for the hard core Unionist from NI backgrounds in Western Scotland , and Tory followers to the south , well they will never be changed…. no matter what.
The only way is the old English warfare way , breed them out , make them a minority with the lowest incomes , unable to fight. Perhaps the Borders can become a tech boom , SOHO etc , but sadly there is one more power that Scotland lacks to acheive that , something that has deliberately been off the table from the devolution powers on purpose , business taxes , but we may need to dance with the devil , the LSE wealthy for that to happen… at least for the first dance. However since indy the middle Enlanders have been promised exatly that tax wavering powers via localised empowerment , but sadly still no word of exactly that kind of economic lever for Scotland.
Those Unionist numbers have and will remain ever static , that is unless there is internal movement for increasing a core population within it , with a positive view towards Indy , ie replacing those jobs outside of the core industries that promote and preserve Unionist and Tory numbers , and this something that can only be redressed by a housing boom and jobs with it that are a result of Holyrood … not Westminster.
The new Goal for Holyrood is to be a Thorn in Westminsters side , challenge every decision , fight every legislation , and NOW get the direct telephone number of those leaders in the EU to Back , not block , Scotland independence.
And if after we join it is found detrimental , then as shown all it takes is another ref , but by then every negative will have been removed , bank , pension , etc as a result from a very short memberhsip.
Accepting that ‘too small, too puir to0 stupid’ is existential, and uninterrupted since the Davids up to this day and tomorrow — what appeared yesterday could be a glowing opportunity to reflate, repopulate and raise mean IQ a tad, AND with Native.English.Speakers.
Start recruiting the disaffected 18-24 yr-olds from the south.
simples
Those disenfranchised age groups you mention probably arent the ones to court , youth eventually submits , however the better number to bring in is those others that wanted to remain in the EU from the south , the money men , the same people behind 2014 project fear.
They cannot control the English people anymore , power taken from their control of the peoples elected representatives in their pockets , a power taken with direct democracy…. ironically perhaps , as a result of their anti immigration rhetoric and decades of blaming the EU for everything wrong in the very newspapers and media they own or control.
But the irony of inviting the youth of England , to be economic migrants , to an EU welcoming Scotland is welcomed considering the ammo used in the media over the last few months.
Inertia is the enemy of quick-fixes, no matter how sensible – but recruiting the ‘enemy of my enemy’ to emigrate (addressing several problems obliquely) does have a certain je’nais s’quoi, no?
Everybody turns 40 eventually and views change, in the meantime, enjoy their taxes and reduced demand for public services.
Were the leadership of Scotland of a more pragmatic stripe, they could continue to mouth all the indy crap they so love, while structuring a deal with ruk to be their very bestest friend and interface to Europe.
Ahhh, no, the will, intelligence and ability to pull something like that off has LONG gone South.
’tis sad
Indeed the age profile combined with the fairly narrow overall UK majority for Leave does really cast doubt on the wisdom of getting out of the EU only to have to contemplate trying to worm themselves back in in a decade or two, no doubt losing out massively both coming and going. What a ****** mess! Good for Scotland (and Irland??) though 🙂
It’s like when they asked writers on their views on the Spanish Civil War, and some went to great lengths, but not Samuel Beckett who wrote…
ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRIBA LA REPUBLICA!!!!!