Three Go Yes

10325374_842844915744161_1747748988925750116_nThree very different defections from No to Yes this week have caused a ripple of anxiety amongst the usually bullish remnants of the Better Together crowd. Arguably the most significant is that of Mike Dailly, a fervent No supporter and respected anti-poverty campaigner. Scottish Housing Regulator described him as: “Mike has been the Principal Solicitor at Glasgow’s Govan Law Centre since 1999 where he has undertaken a number of progressive law reform projects including the abolition of poindings and warrant sales, free and nutritious school meals, unfair UK bank charges, and the regulation of property factors.” The switch has caused apoplexy amongst senior Labour figures – see Neil Findlay here.

Dailly tweeted:

He’s a significant, well respected figure. But what’s interesting is that he’s not a soft No voter, he’s a hard No voter, a committed combative supporter of the Union and sharp critic of the SNP.

He’s not alone, the writer, lecturer and philosopher AC Grayling also took this week to announce a significant change of heart. He has two principal reasons. First he thinks the Brexit mandate is illegitimate. Writing in The New European (‘Brexit will wipe UK out of history: It will no longer be the UK’) he said:

“The EU referendum was explicitly an advisory, non-binding poll. MPs were told this very clearly in the briefing they were given before debating the Bill.  They were also explicitly alerted to the fact that if there were to be any question otherwise, a supermajority would be required – the norm in most mature constitutions is a two-thirds majority. In the event a mere 37% of the gerrymandered electorate voted Leave. This is a proportion too small for a strike to be permitted in any important public service in the UK, and by far too little to trigger a general election out of Parliamentary term, this requiring 66% of all MPs, whether they vote or not.  Treating the referendum as binding and its 37% Leave percentage as mandating is both dishonest and politically illegitimate.” Second he thinks that Brexit fundamentally alters the nature (and existence) of Britain: “The second aspect of the crisis, and the reason why the UK will leave history if it leaves the EU, is that Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland will leave the UK. That is why the UK will leave history: it will no longer be the UK. Scotland and Northern Ireland have every reason to refuse to be dragged into the morass of negative consequences into which English right-wing Tories and English tabloid newspapers and English xenophobia are plunging us. Along with many who campaigned to keep the Union together at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, I would now strongly support it: Brexit is an irrational and damaging project, and there is no reason why a strongly pro-EU Scotland should be forced to eat the rubbish that the Brexiteers are seeking to serve up.”

“Brexit is an irrational and damaging project, and there is no reason why a strongly pro-EU Scotland should be forced to eat the rubbish that the Brexiteers are seeking to serve up …”

Grayling is an articulate and very well respected author and academic. He was one of the 200 signatories of the ‘Celebrities’ open letter to Scotland’ in 2014 and was a passionate advocate of the Union.

The third individual to cross the divide is less well known but no less significant.

Steve Bullock is an Englishman living in Belgium, a musician and blogger: “Contrary to the expectations of some, Scotland welcomed this Englishman wholeheartedly, and I would now like to help it.”

He writes:

“So why the SNP, and why now? Because the Westminster government and Parliament dragging Scotland out of the EU against its will is a travesty.  Not only that, but the refusal of both to support, or even seriously examine the Scottish Government’s very reasonable compromise proposals on remaining in the Single Market was nothing less than a clear “Fuck Off” to everyone in Scotland, and to the UK’s constitutional settlement as a whole.  And this was on a compromise which the Scottish Government itself said was nowhere near their preferred option. Anyone who has not read the Scottish Government’s White paper “Scotland’s Place in Europe” should do so, even if they are not in Scotland.  It sets out clearly that this horrible car-crash Brexit that the government is planning, and the opposition are supporting, does not have to happen.  It sets out that even if Brexit did have to happen, its effects could be mitigated for Scotland.  In fact, it could be mitigated for the whole of the UK.  All opposition parties should have got behind this. http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/9234/downloads Last night’s vote in the Commons on Article 50, was a pathetic abrogation of duty by all but a hundred or so MPs.  There is nothing democratic about MPs voting for something they know will damage their country and its people.”

Three very different figures don’t make a sea-change but they could be canaries in the coal-mine. They are united in the motivation that the unfolding Brexit fiasco has been a game-changer. As Ken Clarke, playing Geoffrey Howe to Theresa May articulated: “Apparently you follow the rabbit down the hole and emerge in a wonderland where suddenly countries throughout the world are queuing up to give us trading advantages and access to their markets that previously we’ve never been able to achieve. Nice men like President Trump and President Erdogan are just impatient to abandon their normal protectionism and give us access!”

“Apparently you follow the rabbit down the hole and emerge in a wonderland where suddenly countries throughout the world are queuing up to give us trading advantages and access to their markets that previously we’ve never been able to achieve. Nice men like President Trump and President Erdogan are just impatient to abandon their normal protectionism and give us access!”

The significance of which was not a Tory ‘big beast’ rebelling but as it relays the cracks in the Conservative party being pushed into more and more ridiculous and extreme positions that will become ever more indefensible. Ruth Davidson likes to put a firewall between her and her toxic colleagues down south. But this is becoming more and more difficult to achieve. If and when we get to a second referendum, the likelihood is that Davidson will be pushed to the fore on the back of her contrived over-blown and unexamined ‘Scottish success’.  The is great news as they can’t win with her in charge.

The contradictions hypocrisy and lies of the Better together campaign and the 2015 Conservative Manifesto are piling up. As Alex Salmond said yesterday:

“As for the economic damage, there was nothing wrong with the Treasury medium-term forecasts on coming out of the single marketplace; even if there is a bespoke deal, it will result in a 6% loss in GDP.

The Tory 2015 manifesto is not my bedtime reading, but as I recall, page 72 said:

“We say: yes to the Single Market”.

The Tories were right to say yes. It was funny that yesterday all the Conservative speakers remembered the commitment to a referendum, but not one of them remembered their commitment to the single marketplace. Of course it was not the case that a withdrawal from the European Community meant a withdrawal from the single marketplace. During the campaign, I had the pleasure of debating with Daniel Hannan MEP, who said:

“Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market”.

Of course it is possible to honour the result of the referendum and stay in the single marketplace, and even if people think there will be an exit from the single marketplace, it is madness, in diplomatic negotiating terms, to abandon that position now. The UK should keep its place in the single marketplace and allow the other European countries to negotiate it out of it, not give it away before the first word is spoken in the negotiations.”

In the coming weeks and months we are likely to see this trickle of No to Yes turning into a torrent as the full economic sand politics implications of Brexit Means Trump becomes clear and the democratic deficit looms large.

Now we enter the next stage as the Brexit Fantasy meets European reality. Iain Macwhirter explained: ‘Britain has long been regarded as a reluctant member of the EU but now we’re being seen as a potential enemy. This is hardly surprising, given the dismissive and often contemptuous terms in which the EU has been described by Brexit MPs, not least by the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson. He spent most of his journalistic career demonising Brussels as some kind of petty dictatorship. His confederates in the Commons, Tory MPs Bill Cash and Jacob Rees Mogg, spoke in the debate comparing Brexit to Waterloo and Agincourt, revealing their malign view of the EU as some kind of evil foreign empire. The Article 50 debate was Little England’s finest hour.”

The soundbites and lying are over, its reality now, and smart and decent people are waking up. They will have a significant role to play in any coming referendum and are very welcome.

***
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  1. Bugger le Panda says:

    Theresa May’s political contortions are all about assuaging the foaming UKIPer wing of the Tory Party.

    It is all about internal Tory politics, nothing about anything else.

    1. c rober says:

      Just wait until UKIP rolls out Indy for England!

      Tories – the footnote of History…. or as alternatively titled , dont run with scissors.

  2. Martin Meteyard says:

    Tom Morton also last month.

  3. Crubag says:

    I don’t know where Grayling gets the idea that a supermajority was ever proposed (Alec Salmond put forward an amendment for a double majority – vote to leave/vote to approve terms – but that’s a different thing). This is what the relevant minister had to say about it:

    “As Constitutional Reform Minister at the time, I had responsibility for the detailed election rules set out in the European Union Referendum Act 2015. Since those rules would have included any provision for a super-majority of the kind that is suggested in the petition, it might help if I explain why we did not include such a super-majority in that Act, which was passed by Parliament last year.

    There was not much discussion of super-majorities when Parliament debated the 2015 Act, but had that subject come up, I suspect that there would have been widespread opposition to it from campaigners on both sides of the debate. No matter what the issue at hand may be, a super-majority gives an in-built advantage to the status quo. It tilts the playing field deliberately in favour of no change. In other words, it would rightly have been seen as a pretty transparent attempt to give the remain campaign an enormous—and in the eyes of many, unfair—advantage. Leave supporters would have denounced it in ringing terms. Equally importantly, more thoughtful remain campaigners would probably have felt uncomfortable too.”

    Steve Bullock appears to be ignoring the 38% of the voters in Scotland who voted to Leave.

    1. c rober says:

      So by that admission , in that the status qou gets an advantage with double and treble lock , then would that mean it would be off the table in Indy II?

      I suspect Mrs May would be reluctant to grant it without it.

      1. Crubag says:

        I think it was a somewhat curious argument for Salmond to make – would he have asked the same in 2014? A second referendum to approve the SG/rUK terms?

        Grayling similarly, though a later convert and perhaps more pro-EU than anti-UK. A super-majority, as in 1979, probably favours the status quo.

  4. Alasdair Macdonald says:

    Reading Mr Neil Findlay’s rebuke to Mr Mike Dailly for joining the SNP, it is noticeable that it is Mr Findlay’s anti-SNP position which is to the fore. It is an example of the baleful tribal dichotomist ‘Britishness’ of Labour – “if you are not for us you are against us; yours is the ‘politics of identity’ which led to Auschwitz, whereas ours is ‘patriotism of a Britain that is an example to the world in its openmindedness and openheartedness, ………”even as it demonstrates increasingly overt xenophobic hatred And, while Mrs May’s appalling advertising hoarding telling immigrants to go home, Labour was selling mugs (i.e. drinking vessels!!!) with a similarly nasty message.

    I am strongly in favour of independence for Scotland. I was once a member of the Labour Party and voted Labour on dozens of occasions. I am not a member of the SNP, although I have voted for them (and the Greens) over the past decade or so.
    Mr Findlay does not seem to realise how much the alliance between Labour and the Tories and Lib Dems angered ‘traditional’ Labour voters. He does not seem to appreciate that the offensive bile which they spewed over Scots and supporters of independence alienated us, to the extent of ‘never again will I vote for such a nasty self-serving clique’. Their toehold in Westminster was their ‘buying and selling by English gold’.

    Mr Findlay has seen Labour lose half its vote since the 2016 Scottish election with half of that half going to the Tories. That is, to Tories who are hell-bent on destroying trade unions, dehumanising the poor, stripping workers’ rights, privatising public services, removing human rights, etc. These are all things which the Labour Party once supported. Now, Labour has become one prong of a two pronged attack by neoliberalism on the majority of the population in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK. It spouts weaselly words trying to imply that it is espousing socialism.

    As withdrawal from the EU moves on, Mr Findlay and others like him are going to be faced with a stark choice of a UK which becomes an ‘M’ society – ie grossly polarised between a small wealthy powerful elite and an impoverished, disempowered rest. Is he going to parody the “Red Flag’ and sing ‘The Working Class can kiss my arse, I’ve got the foreman’s job at last’?

    1. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

      I agree. Findlay is a headcase.

      In 2014 Labour were the Tories useful idiots. In 2017 Labour are the Tories useless idiots.

      1. Frank says:

        Neil Findlay’s critique of the SNP could equally be applied to Labour or any other social democratic party in Europe for that matter. ‘He’s no the brightest’ as my mother would say.

  5. c rober says:

    Ive long said that there is many in the Labour sphere worthy of carrying the badge , with socialist trimmings , the more that comes on board the better any indy would be… but…

    Something still tells me that there may indeed be an exodus not for seeing the light , or the writing on the wall…. but the bank balance instead.

    For all that though the good that jump ship may indeed be balance in removing the long term bad apples within the SNP , not with mindless zealots , but with those that know criticism when true should lead to improvement – not accusations of “snp bad”. Today like SLAB the SNP members handbook still has the line about not criticising the party – which is protecting the usless , and the profiteer and preventing change.

    I just hops Kex or Bailie doesnt jump ship , to either the SNP or Indy , then I know its never deliverable.

    My congrats to those that though have seen the indy light , its takes a bigger man and all that.

  6. PDS says:

    My 88-year-old life-long Labour supporting, SNP fearing, deeply culturally cringing and generally Scotland-bashing (but lovely!) dad has also recently declared a switch from no to yes. None of us ever saw that one coming.

    1. c rober says:

      Sometimes these are our best conveyors of truth , the converted , they offer why they have changed their minds to their brothers and sisters , and in turn those that wouldn’t listen before offer a softer ear.

      After the English resident blame was the pensioner one post indy , while the maths props this up to a point , aided by project fear – treating them as senile and stupid only lasts so long , treating them as the enemy though for indy II is instant and lasts forever.

      It is how we treat our old , our sick , and unemployed , where we are told that defines our civilized society.

      So pensioners in round II need to be told that under UK they are fucked , a cash generating product in retirement as well as in their working life.

      A life now one of higher inflation , low interest rates , privatized health care , and selling up their chattels to pay for sheltered housing , as their kids are on up to 10x times multiple mortgages , and their grandkids headed for a life of private rented.

      They need to be told not to fear the pound being kept from them , or adopting the EURO.

      They need to know that europe is open to them for retirement as well as cheaper food imports – this in a country where its cheaper to get two months holiday in Tenerife than to heat their home in the dead of winter .

      They need to see 350m on doing up a house of Englands richest pensioner , which could be better spent on creating new retirement ones for hundreds – or even insulating that of many others. Even die hard unionist pensioners are bowking on that one.

      The wings of change are a flutter , and sitting idly by the SNP and Holyrood is not that answer. Its one of the few times I am in agreement with Craig Murray. If that means showing teeth so be it , Holyrood needs to draw up plans for preventing the mi5 postal ballot , for declaring the tv licence fee uncollectable in Scottish courts – for being the thorn in the side of the establishment in Scotland at every opportunity through the powers it has – law.

      The time is now for indy II , sewell busted , English democracy overules Scottish , this union good the other bad , biased UK trade internally , lies of the vow , protecting the NHS only via no , eu trade protected only via no , bbcscotlandshire , eu instant membership as RUK with NI , IOM , CI and Gib ASSURED and Spains veto busted , which has led us to peak shit today , and may not be there tomorrow.

      Of course there is also the need to educate the pensioner Scots further on McCrone and SLab reclassification of the North Sea that made their working life that little bit harder , taking it to the ECHR being the ultimate goal , which was perhaps the reason for project fear working in the first place , through their working lives remembering the lay offs , strikes , lies on the re-industrialization of Scotland , promises of the prioritization of utilities to lower prices that have not materialized and created instead a state sponsor oligopoly.

      You never know though , the answer could well be by the SNP offering not a Scottish indy ref , but that in England instead. The RUK lemmings are on a roll , lets hope its wi slice n brown sauce.

  7. SleepingDog says:

    Perhaps Brexit is partly a consequence of a fake historical narrative accepted, and self-serving insularity held to, by many Britons? If that narrative is questioned, and outside views of Britain impinge, then support for the UK starts to slide?

    I thought it was quite interesting this week that the BBC was running documentaries critically examining how British history was created (as propaganda, say) or suppressed (royal diaries):

    British History’s Biggest Fibs with Lucy Worsley
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08bs0hn
    (history as a lie created by the powerful/military victors)

    A Timewatch Guide – British Empire: Heroes and Villains with David Olusoga
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08cwrf2/a-timewatch-guide-series-3-4-british-empire-heroes-and-villains
    (reports of a fierce internal dispute about 70s BBC series)

    George III – The Genius of The Mad King
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08cwqx3/george-iii-the-genius-of-the-mad-king
    (200 years of British history suppressed by Royal family)

    What are they trying to tell us?

    I can hardly wait until they bring this strand up to modern history.

    1. c rober says:

      Chruchill was once asked how would history portray him – his reply good as he intended to write it. The same guy that ordered tanks into George Sq – and another reason why the line in the national anthem still has “to crush the rebellious Scots” , well for some.

      He is accountable as the man that led Europe to smash the facists – same guy that wanted to gas the Kurds , yet Saddam different outcome.

      There is a reason why proper Scots History was until devolution erased from the education system – pure propaganda. We should though be showing how the wealthy names of Scotland got that way – no airbrushing , and the reason why we should be well into land reform proper will then be asked.

      Students that read history , soaking up what is given them are not the best to be educators themselves , or drivers of (r)evolution , they need to ask questions of the status qou , of why and how we have got where we are today – not instead blindly reinforce it.

      Perhaps then this is why the SNP and Hollyrood is so pro education , for its people and that of the EU , but will those EU students march in their home country onto their parliaments to aid the Scottish Indy cause for EU membership to continue , or to be instant? I hope so.

      1. SleepingDog says:

        The Timewatch programme also touched on how Kitchener was portrayed (not usually seen in conjunction with skeletal starving dying Boer children these days).

        Yes, I agree that a pro-education (as opposed to indoctrination) stance is encouraging. Perhaps state and civic society might agree to formalize some of these accountability roles? For example, a duty to hold all branches of government to account in a Scottish Broadcasting Corporation charter, with the legal protection that would entail.

        1. c rober says:

          Sleeping Dog

          If something like 60 percent of the Licence fee collected in Scotland is kept by our maisters , and what little is made with Scottish Licence fee “shifted” , profiting private English programming makers in subsidised Scottish Studio use on top , then not only is this a propaganda machine but it also reflects the drain on Scotland itself outside of the BBC. In other words a cash cow.

          Only with an independent BBC , or its removal , can the propaganda machine be stopped.

          Holyrood can do this radically – by instructing the courts to not having any way to take Licence fee cases , under the ruling that it is a hidden tax on Scotland or an unfair tax on Being Scottish as proportionally we subsidizing English content and jobs. There is also the argument that RTE gets its content for a fraction of what Scotland pays to prove it.

          This can be argued via the is it a licence or a tax question , where one is able to avoid a licence or tax – but you cannot avoid it at all in either case , as long as you have either a Tv or radio.

          The EU rules are already clear on broadcasting , encryption rules can be used for that licence , but as we are being dragged from the EU then the time to strike on that one is now. And as such the IRISH scenario , where uk TV is unencrypted spilling over into a sovereign nation whom has its airwaves protected is thus illegal without encryption. Lets call this thorn in the side two – as either WM or BBC will need to supply the tech , thus bear the costs of millions of set top boxes.

          But then again they could just devolve SBBC and save themselves the hundreds of millions , showing the FAIR union of partners instead of the unfair one of maisters.

      2. Alf Baird says:

        “the SNP and Hollyrood is so pro education”. Aye, apairt fi lairnin thair ain bairns the Scots langage. Ony fowk that dinna ken hou tae read an screed thair ain langage irna a fowk or naition ataw, an thay’ll aye bi unkennin o thair ain cultur. Self-oppressed or whit?

      3. c rober says:

        My post in this bit , just under sleeping dog , I asked “will the EU students march in their home countries for Scottish indy” , I am pleased to say looks like they will and alongside others.

        http://www.thenational.scot/news/15071895.Dutch_and_Germans_to_lead_first_international_rally_for_Scottish_independence/

        The Nederlands , Germany , it is but a start , hope to soon see others.

  8. Alan Bissett says:

    A) 21% of Scots voted Yes + Remain. They are in the bank.

    B) 16% voted No + Leave. They are hardline British nationalist who we will never reach.

    C) 28% of Scots voted No + Remain. They are persuadable.

    D) 14% voted Yes + Leave. They are persuadable.

    E) 21% did not vote in at least one of those referenda. They are persuadable.

    Groups C, D and E will require very different pitches, however, and we may have to be prepared to sacrifice some in order to win a larger share of others.

    C is most likely comprised of people who consider themselves cosmopolitan ‘internationalists’ who enjoy freedom of movement and co-operation between nations, and who were probably put off independence in 2014 because they regarded it as narrow and isolationist. Brexit is a game-changer for them, especially given the clearly greater ‘internationalist’ credentials of an iScotland in the EU versus the ‘separatist’ post-Brexit Britain. I think we could win many if not most of them round.

    D is likely a mixture of two sub-groups: committed Scottish nationalists who do not want to pool sovereignty with anyone, whether the UK or Europe, and soft Yes voters who dislike immigrants more than they like the idea of an independent Scotland. They are possibly even excited at the prospect of a UK-Trump alliance.

    [It would be good at some point to get some data sets on the relative size of these sub-groups to each other].

    The first of D’s sub-groups, the Scottish ‘isolationists’, are very likely to back Yes, even if it means staying in the EU, since they know the next referendum will be Scotland’s only real chance at independence. That’s their main priority.

    The second group, the Yessers who are sceptical on immigration, we may have to sacrifice. A loose pitch about the democratic deficit and the economic damage of Brexit is worth a shot, but if immigration is higher up on their list of priorities they’re more susceptible to the British pitch. Tailoring our argument to their xenophobic sentiments would not only be morally wrong but it would also mean losing the larger potential amount of votes from group C.

    So where does that leave us? What’s eminently achievable is this:

    All of Group A (21%) + 2/3 of Group C (19%) and half of group D (7%) = 47%.

    That is roughly where Yes is just now and has been since 2014. It’s possibly even the snapshot of the current state of play.

    What that suggests to me is that those who will tip the balance in our favour are the 21% who are politically inactive, disenfranchised and didn’t vote in one or the other of the referenda. If we can win even a fifth of those it could be enough.

    It’s going to be won on the schemes and in the high rises, folks, and the message there has to be one of radical economic change. In fact, this will be necessary to counter the No campaign’s likely anti-immigrant dog-whistling, which, having lost the ‘internationalist’ argument, will be their strategy to harvest the disillusioned.

    If the US election has taught us anything, it’s that we will have to go ‘Sanders’ to combat their ‘Trump’. Going ‘Clinton’ would be disastrous.

    The other point is, let’s have fewer flag-waving rallies and more serious knocking on doors next time around. We have to go to them, they’re not going to come to us.

    1. bringiton says:

      Absolutely correct Alan.
      The Tories who are the backbone of Scottish subservience always get their vote out and unfortunately in the indy1 campaign we fell short in motivating sufficient have nots.
      Maybe the baby boxes will have some effect.

    2. Alan Bissett says:

      Even if 2/3 of No/Remain voters is a bit optimistic (not impossible, given there is no live Yes campaign at the moment trying to persuade them, but certainly optimistic) we also have to take into account that 2.5% of the Scottish electorate are EU nationals. They were excluded from the EU referendum, so would show up in these figures as part of the 21% who did not vote in one or other of the referenda. They would all be solidly Yes next time around, I’d imagine, for obvious reasons. If Brexit hasn’t scared them away by then, of course!

      But No > Yes stories are a good way to persuade soft No’s. It’s possible also that there would be a weight of English-resident Remainers who would be entirely understanding of Scotland’s desire to go this time around and would say as much. That’s certainly a different scenario from 2014, which could help persuade No/Remainers up here.

    3. douglas clark says:

      Not completely convinced that non-voters, last time around, are the answer. Think your categories C and D are more likely.

      I suppose it depends on whether they feel alienated from Westminster, or not. So, knock off the 50% that lurve the glitz. Still leaves us with a substantial majority, I think.

      The question for them is, more or less, why are you so insecure?

      If we could persuade them that independence is nothing to fear, perhaps we could win enough of them over to achieve our goal?

      Think that ought to be the strategy.

    4. c rober says:

      Alan

      I do love a bit of meat on the bone when it comes to stats and maths , but did I miss the Scots EU residents?

      While its not a major consideration , I call it the tesco variable , in that “every little helps” , which was my argument post indy with regard to postal ballot fraud being there but not in the manner looked for , ie not one large reprint of votes but many small frauds that added up to the bigger one.

      The same tesco variable was used in campaigning at the road level , adjusting the NO argument and bribes in real time to suit locales , and even afterwards with the VOW.

      There is other maths to explore , and other benefits from them that are there today.

      The English vote in looking over the demographics , where those people are in quite a large minority , up to 19 percent , but in reality from 11-13 percent , and corresponds to the areas with highest employment based on Oil , banking , or the civil service.

      When you look at the population number under the microscope it is approx the same as the difference between Yes and No was.

      So perhaps there is a luxembourg moment to explore – ie voter prevention?

      Or just maximising on their wealth that perhaps will bring them in , ie the realisation , the their selfish desires , are best served , if not increased , in an indy Scotland. Plus we have the oil down turn that may have meant returning to England for work – or onward to the likes of Dubby?

      Considering that the SNP are a party of legals and bean counters then you would hope they are doing the same maths I did post indy , running a forensic model – which would show the course wanted.

      The postal vote , as I mentioned earlier , was something just a little more suspect , and as such seems implausible that it aided the better together campaign the most via Mi5 style counter democracy , so even if the SNP and Holyrood believe that it wasnt fixed in the public domain – it should do internally.

      I argued that the thing was busted by “little and lots of it” to appear off the radar , compared to say just print and dump en masse . As of yet those 300 000 or whatever , which was high for no , well it was havent been investigated via checking tax receipts including council , bank accounts , census data , and NHS doctor surgery registrations – which would show up some surprising results – like landlords living in England or EU , or registered at family members homes , even never been at Scottish Doctors? For that one reason I would remove the postal ballot entirely , unless it is counter signed via a notary , and GP – whom checks census data and patient register – defeating all but a Mi5 dump scenario , which also can be countered easily enough with some will.

  9. Doubting Thomas says:

    ?

  10. Doubting Thomas says:

    The question is really simple for me.
    Despite all the bluster there is no democratic mandate and on the face of it insufficient public support to have a further referendum.
    In fact the polls show that the Scottish people are against a further referendum now.
    Does she have the bottle to go for it?
    At this stage it seems clear that there is considerable doubt the U.K. Govt would agree to a referendum given the lack of support for one.
    So the question is should there be a referendum about having a referendum.
    If the people say no where does she go?
    It is a career ending situation and would put Indy off the menu for ever.
    Bring it on!

    1. Alan Bissett says:

      A majority (SNP + Greens) was elected to the Scottish parliament last year on the basis of another referendum given a material change of circumstances such as Brexit, so there’s the democratic mandate right there.

      Opinion polls also show half of the electorate wanting indyref2 with two years.
      http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/drama-as-panelbase-release-their.html

      1. Alasdair Macdonald says:

        Agreed. And, you could have added to this by indicating the outcome of the 2015 GE, with 56/59 MPs returned ‘in the Scottish National interest’. Indeed, Mrs Thatcher once commented that a majority of Scottish MPs who supported independence being elected would be sufficient.

    2. john says:

      Our First Minister will not go for a referendum just now , she will wait till the Tories keep digging the hole they started and when they are in it too deep (which is inevitable) , she will strike . By that time it will be abundantly clear the disaster the far right Tory Government is making of the UK . Nicola Sturgeon will then overwhelmingly win an independence referendum .

    3. c rober says:

      Stop spouting the poll lies , its well busted. Much like that of EU membership and pensions.

      A single poll of 1020 people , saying that there is no want for indy , done by the Sunday times is not a poll – if you want a real poll then it will happen in MAY.

      Not one iota of attack from Holyrood on the media displaying this poll though as “Scottish majority says no to another indy ref” – sadly the SNP and Holyrood are doing the MSM job for them in not creating a proper toothed press complaints body.

  11. Redgauntlet says:

    My brother didn’t vote on 18S, but recently told me that since Brexit and the rise of the Anglo-American far right, he would definitely vote YES to Scottish independence….

  12. MBC says:

    It’s really heartening to see that principled thinking people are now facing up to the realities of a fast changing world and concluding that an independent Scotland within the EU is the lifeboat they would rather jump to than the sinking Titanic. Maybe they are the canaries in the mine.

    Jo Maugham QC is trying to get an EU ruling on whether Article 50 is reversible, so there may be further twists to come yet in this saga.

  13. Doubting Thomas says:

    Dr I thought the principled thinking people on the continent had said the UK is leaving so Scotland will also be out………and will go to the back of the queue for entry.
    And given the economic deficit in Scotland membership would never happen.
    It is complete lie being put on this.
    Fortunately we know this will be kicked into the long grass very soon as she finds she has no mandate, no majority in support and does not have the legal power to call a referendum.
    God forbid who would pay all the benefits which clearly could not be afforded.

    1. c rober says:

      You are perhaps the worst yoon rebroadcaster on here , so I will dispel the myths for being what they are – lies.

      Back of the queue – busted twice , direct entry via being RUK , or via already meeting the criteria for entry by already being in the system so to speak – ie pre prepped due to UK membership.

      Economic deficit – easy enough to bust , state bank Scottish NsandI – loans financed at the protracted cheapest rate ever – on the back of oil revenue , of which near 2/3rds is exported to the EU and all of which was stolen from the people of Scotland via Labour and Tory burying the McCrone report.

      Referendum “no interest” as you mentioned earlier , busted , based on 1020 people for the Sunday Times , a Mudoch propaganda vehicle , then repeated throughout the yoon sphere as SCOTTISH MAJORITY – lies.

      Fiscal levers , Currently Scotland has no mechanism for change on proper Business and other taxation. The lack of industry , thus Jobs , the ability to create them , lies solely therefore in Westminster hands if Scotland is such a basket case as it portrays , then it was on their watch.

      NHS – England is using the media to shoe horm in privatization , as the solution to an underfunded NHS. The BT campaign said , the only way to protect the NHS is in the Union , just like that of EU membership. So thats a twofer for you.

      Pensions myth busted. Admitted in round one.

      Euro and pound myth busted. Either accepting the EURO is the solution , with an instant benefit for exchange , just like that of its newest members on the conversion rate . Pound will not be used unless its a Scottish pound , separate from the private bank of England and via a new soverign state bank.

      UK trade myth busted. Uk exports from Scotland will be kept , as will the biased trade gap from England. The argument of EU leaving for RUK is therefore the same as Scotland leaving the UK , in that trade will continue , apart from one major detail , Scotland would have its own levers instead of Westminsters which are based on open and hidden tarrifs like English job protection via EU and ROTW trade being through English ports on top of increased costing for transit there – ie increased fuel tax and wages reducing the competitiveness of Scottish business.

      Anything else you would like to contribute to Mythbusters?

      1. Doubting Thomas says:

        Alternative facts?
        So the EU membership issue is already resolved?
        Or perhaps there is no deficit.
        The currency is not a concern?
        No wonder support for Indy is falling.
        The truth is out there.
        The people of Scotland are not daft.
        That’s why they voted to stay part of the UK in the first place and if
        glasgow ( and it is a very big if ) a second referendum is ever to come about everything suggests they will do so again.

        1. john says:

          You can stop doubting Thomas , the Indy movement is doing exactly that , moving , ever so quietly for the moment , but it is moving , and in the right direction . The people of Scotland as a whole are now realising that Scotland is really just a pain in the posterior and nothing more for the Westminster Government. By taking no notice of Scotland Theresa May has decreed she is the only player allowed in the game , one of her biggest (among many others ) mistakes . Forget figures they can be conjured any way you like , listen to the people .

          1. Doubting Thomas says:

            John I know that facts are inconvenient but we voted to remain part of the UK in 2014 in a “once in a generation” referendum.
            The UK voted to leave the EU.
            The vocal minority that supports Indy like the SNP do not speak for all of Scotland.
            Democracy will win through.
            Just this morning I have donated to a crowdfunding project which intends to take the administration to task by ensuring any actions taken by them are legal and within their devolved powers.
            If they are not they will be stopped.
            It would be an outrage after all if the democratic will of the Scottish people was usurped by undemocratic process and their voice was not heard.

        2. c rober says:

          Doubting Thomas – you do realise every single argument you have given is negated and is applied towards being in the UK?

          Uk voted to leave democratically , well Scotland voted democratically to remain.
          Scotland Voted for indy and said no , but it said yes to EU – so what your saying is then democracy is forfeit ?

          The minority of which you speak of , that dont speak for the Majority of Scotland , well thats a bit ironic if Uk parliaments are in power with 35 percent and is no where near a majority , and what was the percentage of Scotish Tories sent to Westminster again – 2 percent? So 2 percent of Scotland dictates the 98 percent and thats Democracy?

          Yet we see a ruling class is back in Westminster , whereas in Scotland its parliament , even though without a FPTP system its indy parties are STILL the Majority. Actually were it not for the Regional list I doubt any other representation would be there in enough numbers to get a 5 a side game…. but I suspect you would like it to be where “Mundell” the governor referee is the winner.

    2. Crubag says:

      There is no queue as such, only countries in negotitation. Each had to complete a number if chapters – law, governancd, economy etc.

      Scotland already complies with most of this, if it did want to seek membership, only the economic and statistical chapters would be weak spots.

      These would need to be addressed as an independent country anyway.

  14. john says:

    No one is stopping their voice being heard Thomas , Ruth Davidson speaks for them every day of the week without any prompting. However, the Independence movement is now at 50% and growing, the more Westminster ignore what’s best for the Scottish nation the bigger that will grow, you never know, maybe we will count you in eventually!

    1. c rober says:

      Shush J , the last time a poll showed that we had an edge the muppet show and its vow , project fear all appeared , we should be though striking while the iron is hot – as UK secret service and the elite are busy carving up the ham for themselves with the EU , then they have less soldiers for the front.

      But that means a clear working on the failures in round one , economy properly shown , backers on the international scale courted for jobs , banks courted for EU money passport , and where more than 30 percent of the population get to know about how they have had 600 billion stolen from Scotland as successive UK govts shut down mass employment moving wealth southward.

    2. douglas clark says:

      Could you point me to that poll? I have been keeping an eye on the utter lack of polls since the start of this year – there have been two I am aware of – one conducted for the SNP which didn’t reveal an answer and the other is being harboured as a ‘Yes’ vote when the question asked was when a further referendum ought to be conducted. It would be foolish to assume that everyone that wanted an early referendum was on our side.

      If you have evidence to the contrary, please publish it, as I would love to see that we were neck and neck.

  15. w.b.robertson says:

    so the inde movement is now running at 50%. great news – but what is the source of these numbers??? If the SNP`s own polling shows this why don`t they publish their data?

    1. c rober says:

      Perhaps they are doing the maths , working out a strategy for including Scots Expats in the EU , EU students and keeping schtum that the NSO is still fertile – only this week a major player said that NSO is profitable when costs are 15 dollars a barrel.

      If I was Sturgeon I would be sending reps to NI , CI , IOM , perhaps even GIB to protect them from Spain seeing as how they have been sold out , about retaining the UK , and setting forth in Westminster a proposal of that sort – say promoting that if England and Wales wants indy from the EU , which means from UK too , then so be it.

      1. douglas clark says:

        Interesting switch. And, I think, fair comment.

  16. Doubting Thomas says:

    When I visit this site I frequently get confused and C Rober manages to confuse me more than most.
    I’m afraid that he seems to be completely disconnected to the actualite or perhaps better described as the here and now.
    The current Scottish Administration’s position or suggestion is that Scotland should remain part of the UK but seek via membership of EFTA to remain part of the single market.
    At this stage nobody knows whether that would be possible.
    However Sturgeon constantly seeks to go past her stated position by saying that indy2 is on the table despite the fact that she, her administration and her party know that the Scottish people do not want another referendum on this.
    They may well do in the future but they do not want one now.
    The issues of the currency, the central bank and most crucially the £15bn deficit currently being run by her inept administration have not been resolved.
    The best shot so far based on outmoded ideology of “progressive” taxation is to tax the hard working sector of the Scottish working populace who earn a portion of their wages at the higher tax rate of 40%.
    This will raise a paltry £29m a year by her own forecast, a drop in the ocean compared to the wasted taxpayers money never mind what is required to deal with the deficit.
    I see a backlash now from middle Scotland coming into play which will open the gap between yes and no in the coming months.
    Another reason she will not call a referendum!
    However of greater concern to her should be the cackhanded handling of the Mason pro Ira terrorist outburst.
    Her failure to deal with this will lead to many in the West of Scotland who voted for the SNP as a protest at SLAB’s incompetence and re-introduce the prospect of the religious divide in Scotland coming back to the fore.
    This worse by far than the McGarry etc issues.
    The Shettleston constituency has been riven for years by the stench of Irish Republican terrorist support given the involvement of a certain fantasist 3 named blogger some years ago.
    The constituency does not need or want and MSP and MP who constantly embarrass them especially taking account of the social and economic problems so ingrained there.
    It is time for them both to go and Sturgeon should be telling them so.
    But back to my point about confusion.
    If all of the inherent problems associated with independence have been resolved and there is evidence the Scottish people actually do want another referendum let’s see it.
    I like the vast majority of Scots suspect no such evidence exists and that the economy, education, justice and transport systems which are currently falling apart need her attention far more urgently.
    And I haven’t even mentioned care of the elderly from which she has slashed £500m in favour of providing additional benefits to people who may or may not require them.
    How crass!

    1. c rober says:

      I can bust every single yoon line you post – if not 99 percent , more so If I did my own unionist style one with their poll maths….. and had the propaganda machine print the lying headlines to prove it that we pay for called the BBC.

      Eu joining – busted , admitted by the EU itself , yet STILL portrayed in the media (which I think you may work for) as the opposite. Both no back of the Q , or taking over the reins are options.

      Healthcare , Scotlands struggling and so on.

      The cost of 400k English pensioners on the costas for health care , while its papers go on about health tourists from EU and ROTW , and how bad the NHS is to get it privitised by the back door. The same NHS broken argument is rolled out in English papers too , therefore its clear to see the double narrative… attack on Holyrood and carve up the NHS for Big Corp.

      Currency – New State bank , Scottish pound or Euro. Pound being kept from us again is not a problem for Scotland , but it will be for England , with devaluation that would make Sorros laugh again and “cough” increase exports – as the people starve on the cost of imports.

      Trade – relative to income and deficit. No actual powers devolved , and a system that means WM is to blame for trade as a result. Lets not mention the internal UK trade imbalance and hidden tariffs for Scottish exports though. Of course the fact that Wales had had corporation tax devolved and Scotland hasnt should also tell you something.

      Deficit – on the watch of Westminster , the cost of bank protection , as is EU trade which is subsidizing English Jobs , much like that of the BBC licence fee.

      All Removed in an instant with long term Bonds on the open market when credit has never been cheaper.

      Oil to back those bonds , where just this week one of the larger drillers said it is profitable , and costs are 15 dollars a barrel. Scotlands deficit is designed to be there as a noose around its neck , through Westminster controls of the proper fiscal levers being reserved.

      Irish History and terrorist shit in Scotland – pure project fear II , mi5 style media crap that most of Scotland outside 4 Glasgow burroughs rarely see.

      The only time it has happened in Scotland was early 70s , and was proven to be UDA gangster-ism in protection racketeering. Worth noting here the throat slitter of a boy , that claimed to be a terrorist in order to get into a soon to be removed H block was one of those bombers nephew.

      And as we know this is a shrinking thing EVEN in NI today , where it may choose indy as part of a federal EIRE.

      Hence the SPECIAL deal for NI , to retain it as an economic weapon against EIRE proper , ie moving the imbalanced English trade to NI ports , much like how it is Today for Irish WW exports – and is the same as Scottish exports , ie hidden taffifs , and increased costs , through English ports , protecting and subsiding English jobs.

      EFTA – the investigation of this is because of tied hands , where INDY II is the option should it fail as a deal for Scotlands interests to be protected from Westminster. Adding to this has been proof positive in the Supreme courts that Scotland is a borough of England. No deal for Scotland from WM , but one for regions that voted to leave , or NI , is pure colonial warfare – preventing the banking passport thus jobs from moving north , or Scotland having its own trade neg and levers. Of course there is the Norway model for EU trade , which is conveniently brushed under the carpet – aiding immigration , unless your not into that sort of thing and would instead like increased pensions , lack of taxes to pay for care and so on , in a country with falling birth rates and increasing mortgage multiples?

      Trains and Transport – hands tied , now seeking nationalisation just like the ferries , after all it is state subsidised out of the block grant anyway , just like English rail.

      Despite this it is hardly falling apart , sure it has problems .You could though instead say about 40 years of lack of investment from Westminster . privatization and subsidy , which has led to a poisoned chalice for a devolved democratically Scottish elected govt having to pay for thier actions – unlike that say of Westminster and English trains which are of course fecking perfect in every way , unless you read their press daily.

      Paltry 29m , I think your figures are out , hardly unusal.

      Westminster lowered the tax rate i think in 2010 for higher earners , and increased the limit for applying it in 2016 or thereabouts , again choose your weapons , real ones , not CC crap from the book of good unionist rebroadcasters. But then again Scotland are having to use the British system , through Westminster , and not one defined as our own.

      Of this tax of course you could also spout the papers stating that it affects the majority of Scottish Workers , when those above 43k are less than 10 percent of the Scottish population. The same papers spewing muck that this tax rate is affecting teachers , police and nurses – and where less than 1 percent of those jobs are in that tax bracket.

      Then again we could have chosen to use the other poison chalice , the Scottish Variable rate of income tax – which effectively means the majority pay more , actually twice as its removed from the block grant for every penny raised.

      Care of the elderly – same again , numbers plucked from the air , pf II.

      Do you actually read the same non Scottish version of the Daily Heil , Torygraph and Express – same crap , but at the end of the day it all comes down to one thing …. successive lack of investment into Scotland from Westminster , from successive govts.

      Where both of those major UK parties stole Scotlands oil , with Scottish Labour well it was twice. Where that 600 billion plus stolen , which bailed out bankrupt Britain , and aided the de industrialization of Scotland and North England , well one only needs to look at Norway to see where it could have been today were it not for the burying of the McCrone report.

      So thats yer union for you – steal twice , then make ye oot tae be the fucking parasite.

      But then again would you like to talk the other hidden stolen billions , cost of WM repair , Lizzies hoose , Hs2 , Hinkley or subsidising English house building via new super villages , or with the very thing that our unionist parties in Holyrood decried about – ie “China Steel and flat pack housing and the memorandum of understanding” backed in England by their parties where they are to locate – yet it was destroyed in Scotland by its media , SLAB and Tory.

      Anyone on here long enough KNOW that I am no phanboy of the SNP , but I will back them in the fight against tyranny , be that portrayed as democracy one way , ie UK leave when Scotland says remain , or by highlighting its hands tied when in fact they are – jsut as much as I shoot them down on land reform and housing.

      But as a self made affluent man compared to low waged Scottish workers , a former red Clydesider Labour voted , one with enough knowledge to know about self determination was in its history , whom watched 17 years of Thatcherism on Scotland , then 14 years of lies of NuLabour dp the same , I have no other belief that an independent Scotland is no longer what it wants – but needs.

      For that reason , the way you speak about Holyrood today , I will be the same way.

      I will be criticizing it in an independent nation HARDER than a yoon – but never as blinkered , or gagged , fed on a diet of unionist skewed half truths paraded as facts as evidence…. much like I have done with the SNP already on this very site and others.

      1. Doubting Thomas says:

        See what I mean!
        Btw the £29m comes from Mackay.
        Do try to keep up,

        1. john says:

          Come on Thomas , after that onslaught from C Rober your response has got to be better than that !

          1. Doubting Thomas says:

            Sorry John but I just cant take him seriously.

          2. c rober says:

            Doubting Thomas
            2 hours ago
            Sorry John but I just cant take him seriously.

            DT , “Daily Torygraph?”, sorry I never put a bow on yer posterior when I handed it back to you , must have got lost in the undemocratically WM privatized Scottish post , feeding the hedgefunds , pity it wasnt devolved then really for another excuse….missed a sitter there.

  17. c rober says:

    Has anyone in the Indy movement not brought up the airwaves as a reserved power at WM?

    Not a mention of Scotlands share in any GERS or such like report , therefore can one expect that none of the 10s of billions proportionally was ever returned to Scotland.

    The airwaves are another WM cash cow then and has been ongoing since the auctions started .

    in 2000 22.5 billion was raised for UK cell rights for 3g , 4g 2013 2.3 billion , a tenth of 3g , and what for 5g , who knows?

    https://5g.co.uk/guides/5g-uk-auction/

    1. Doubting Thomas says:

      I think all that self made affluence has affected your ability to communicate in a comprehensible manner.
      Show us the polls!
      You can’t can you cos they don’t exist.
      Pathetic, delusional and incoherent.

      1. c rober says:

        Considering your colours nailed to the mast , thanks , you are all the support I need in any moment of personal self doubt. You are not Doubting Thomas – you are “denial and ignoring the facts Thomas.”

        Still you serve a purpose , one more to the indy campaign than to the better together one.

        While the unionists like yourself are taking up their time , spewing rubbish , in 140 characters or less , people far more eloquent than I are carving away , creating the future powers and white papers needed to dispel the myths , and much better than I ever can grammatically.

        But were it not for those like me , with that information against disinformation , ie those arguments I used to prove your own CC of project unionbook lies , well they would never have got to those “better educated” authors in the first place , at least they seem to be able to read my ramblings “on the wall” easily enough.

        Never once have I heard a perfect example of the psychological term “projection” , your welcome btw.

        Project fear is here again , and its not in the previous manner.

        Its the unionists running scared this time , seeing that the momentum has changed , as has the rules , and the powerhouse found wanting from round 1 , thus its not in their favour – more so if they are already preoccupied with brexshit , thus lacking troops and finances.

        But for that to happen then the SNP must also up their game , capitalizing on it.

        They must adopt the same mushroom policy of distain currently being applied on them on brexit from WM towards Hollyrood (our democratically elected party even with the electoral nobbling).

        That is where you and I differ – I criticise where and when its due without bias , but with the same Doubt as in your name as the starting point.

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