2007 - 2021

55 / 45 Landmark Poll Reverses the 2014 Indyref Result

55% YES / 45% NO – landmark poll reverses the 2014 Indyref result.

A new poll by Panelbase, commissioned as part of a series of ongoing polls by Business for Scotland, has found support for independence has reached 55%, with No to independence falling to 45%.

This landmark poll shows that public opinion has flipped and the 2014 independence referendum result has been reversed, with Yes surging to a 10% lead.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, CEO of Business for Scotland and the grass roots independence campaign Believe in Scotland, welcomed the poll result and said:

“The reversal of the 2014 result is a huge landmark; 55% Yes will send shockwaves throughout the political world. There is no conclusion to draw from this new set of data other than the writing is very definitely on the wall for the union.”

MacIntyre-Kemp added: “Our June poll found independence support at 54%. That poll changed the dynamic of the constitutional conversation and led to claims of panic in the Westminster cabinet, with a series of high profile Tory visits to Scotland. We also saw the effective firing of the Conservative leader in Scotland and the Westminster Government doubling down on its undemocratic threat to deny referendum after an SNP majority. However, none of that frenetic activity seems to have helped the union, if anything it has made things worse.”

“This poll is important when you consider that Yes Campaign started at 27% and grew to 45% support over the period of the campaign.”

“The referendum that will be demanded following May 2021 Holyrood elections, on these figures, would start with Yes to independence commanding a 10% lead. Independence is now significantly the majority decision of the people of Scotland and its momentum looks solid.”

Business for Scotland suggest a combination of events that have created what looks like an unstoppable momentum for Yes support and more and more people are coming to Believe in Scotland.

  • The impending end of the Brexit transition period
  • The gulf in performance on the COVID-19 crisis between Holyrood and Westminster and in the speed of correcting the relative exam results errors problems
  • The undemocratic and unsustainable threat to deny the settled and growing will of the Scottish people for a new referendum
  • Those messages being conveyed every day over social media and face to face (where possible) by the hundreds of thousands of grassroots independence activists across Scotland.

There’s a strange and relatively new narrative in the Yes movement. After publishing our analysis of the new Queen Elizabeth building in Edinburgh and what it represented for the unionist side, we suggested that theirs was a one dimensional and fragile strategy. One person commented on Facebook saying:

It’s not a one dimensional strategy. They hold the power at all levels and they will use it at all levels. Eg BBC propaganda“.

This is an echo of a line which we have told ourselves that now Section 30 Order will ever be given (ever). This is itself increasingly under question as Johnson’s own advisors suggest that to be a terrible plan. And for a government that is spinning out of control it has made so many u-turns it is hardly a hard-truth.

But what has happened is that some in the Yes movements are consumed by negativity and have strangely begun spilling a rhetoric that is ironically similar to we’re “too poor, too wee, too stupid.” That tone and language needs to stop.

This is another significant poll and should be the moment in which the Yes movement ceases the disempowering nihilism that has characterized some elements of the movements output. Instead this is the time to get organised, get positive and start innovating our way to maximising the Yes vote and exerting overwhelming pressure on our opponents. This is a time for positive action propelled by more good news.


Comments (19)

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  1. Margaret McGowan says:

    I wouldn’t matter if the polls showed 90% in favour of YES to independence – we would still need permission from London to have a referendum. If London decides not to give us permission then we won’t get a referendum and we won’t get independence. It’s that simple. Another strategy is needed.

    1. Iain MacPhail says:

      Margret, isn’t that rather the point of the article – people like us, you & me, need to stop saying “oh but we’ll never get a S30” and just get on with winning. 2021 is when the old tropes all fall, and the “no to S30” position will fall first, in the light of a strong indy majority at Holyrood in May. That’s where this is heading. ATB iain

      1. Iain MacPhail says:

        *Margaret (apologies for mis-spelling!!!!)

        1. Margaret McGowan says:

          It’s ok Iain – it’s roughly how it’s pronounced in Glasgow where I was brought up

      2. Yes Iain, exactly. Lets get on with winning …

    2. Michael Gray says:

      “we would still need permission from London to have a referendum” is not the current legal position. The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 received Royal Assent this year on the devolved issue of referendums. This Act was passed at Holyrood. It is now law.

      The particular question of an independence referendum will be contested in the Keatings case, which independence supporters have raised an incredible £200,000 to fight.

  2. Murray says:

    Colonists masquerading as Unionists , Westminster don’t have the right to punish Scotland day after day. The Empire has gone ,it’s time to show respect and break the chains of servitude.

  3. David Smith says:

    Not to mention the impending exit from the EU as a draw to the Yes cause for many.

  4. Squigglypen says:

    Lots of us..few of them…..just say no and ta-ta. UDI. Good old Nicola…..whit a wumman..an’ Margaret..stop being a wimp..we are the Scottish nation..we do what we want…don’t need permission from a handful of Bullingdon Boys who haven’t a clue….stiffen yer backbone and glare…

  5. Peter Breingan says:

    Can we please have a poll on whether to accept the Euro as a currency.
    If we are to become true Europeans we should use the Euro.
    In the event of Indy it would speed our re-entry and stabilise monetary/currency issues

    1. Julian Smith says:

      That question is not relevant at this time. It’s not an option. You don’t join the Eurozone to enhance your street cred with the EU. Scotland would first have to become independent, then decide if it wanted to join the EU, rather than EFTA. Then decide if it would be beneficial to use the Euro. In other words, it would be years down the line and circumstances may be very different.

  6. Axel P Kulit says:

    55% with 54% last time is a great result. I have always said we should wait for a sustained, and preferably rising, 60% which would take WM a very long time to reverse if indeed they could. Anything above 60% with WM refusing a referendum would booster international support for the nuclear and last resort option of UDI.

    However we should be doing what we can to build a majority in England for the ending of the Union. Pushed from all four sides even this government would have to give…. I hope.

    My “negativity” comes from the results in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. Especially the size of the Tory majority in 2019.

    1. Charles L. Gallagher says:

      Axel, that Tory victory was down to the abject failure of Corbyn and his Ultra Left supporters. Never forget that the Tories lost more than half their MPs in Scotland.

  7. tartanfever says:

    Timely reminder that it is an election next year, not a referendum. With the SNP’s poor track record on open consultations on far reaching proposed legislation I think it’s perfectly legitimate for people not to vote for the SNP and hand them a majority that will allow them to push through new controversial laws with ease.

    I would be more happy to compromise and vote SNP if they also compromised.

    Drop the GRA and Hate Crime Bill for the duration of the next Parliament and promise a new referendum within the first year of Government.

    Doing so would bring many back into the fold and most likely do away with the new List only groups.

  8. Andrew says:

    Reply to Peter Breingan. We must have our own Scottish currency. Otherwise we are not truly independent. We will be under the control of the neoliberals of the European Central Bank and vulnerable to intolerable diktats just like Greece has had to suffer.

  9. Mark Bevis says:

    Am currently reading Overshoot by William Catton, pg.86 of the 1982 edition mentions the General Assembly of the UN adopting a Declaration on Granting Independence to Colonial Countries and Peoples in 1960.

    It’s proclamations included: that all peoples could freely determine thei political status and free pursee their economic, social and cultural development,
    Inadequate political, economic, social or educational preparedness must never serve as a pretext for delaying independence.
    Was the UK was a signatory to that declaration? The book implies so because wave gave Uganda independence. Can you present the arguement that the Union was a colonial occupation, and therefore fits under the UN declaration? Or has this already been done to death as an idea?

  10. McDuff says:

    Of course this poll is to be welcomed but just before the referendum we were on 51% , hence the Vow and we have had a high of 59% after Brexit.
    it is interesting Mike the reasons you give for the consistency of this and recent polls which you attribute to Brexit, covid19….. all of which
    are not strategies of the SNP but merely a reaction to these events.
    I`m still waiting for someone to provide me with evidence that the SNP are and have been pro active in promoting independence since`14 rather that than the shambles of woke, the hate crime bill and the Salmond fiasco.

    1. Hi McDuff – the reasons outlined are from Business for Scotland, not me. I dont disagree that they are largely reaction to these events – though I suppose respect for Sturgeon’s handling of the virus is a positive thing.

      What do you want to do? Yes is in the ascendancy, is this a bad thing?

  11. McDuff says:


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