Home > Opinion > Almost a Third of No Voters will Now Vote Yes – and the Highest Ever Poll Predicts Scottish Independence
Almost a Third of No Voters will Now Vote Yes – and the Highest Ever Poll Predicts Scottish Independence
Two breaking new poll results confirm the trend for a huge swing to Yes ahead of 2021 Holyrood elections.
First a new poll by Survation on behalf of Progress Scotland found that 64% of respondents with a view believe Scotland would vote YES if a referendum were held now. The result is the highest-ever rating for the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ question, which tests the expectations of the public about a likely YES result.
Perhaps more significantly the No vote has effectively collapsed.
The Survation poll of 2,093 respondents found that almost one third of 2014 NO voters would now vote YES. Nearly twice as many NO voters have moved to YES than have in the opposite direction.
Progress Scotland Director Angus Robertson said:
“This poll shows how much opinion is changing in Scotland towards Scottish independence. After a series of sustained opinion poll findings indicating majority support for independence, this large poll demonstrates the scale of the momentum and the factors which are driving people from NO to YES. It is extremely striking that the highest-ever percentage of voters in Scotland now believe that there would be a YES victory if a referendum were held tomorrow and that one third of 2014 NO voters have changed their minds to YES or are not sure how they would vote.”
Independence Vote Expectations
Regardless of your own views on Scottish independence, if a referendum were held now, what do you think the outcome of the referendum would be?
Base: All (2,093)
Scotland would vote ‘Yes’ to independence
Scotland would vote ‘No’ to independence
Excluding Don’t Knows: Scotland would vote Yes: 64% No: 36%
Same Views/Changing Views on independence
Thinking back to how you voted in the referendum September 2014 and your views now, which of the following statements best describes what you think?
Base: All (2,093)
My views are the same as in 2014 and I would vote the same way in another referendum
My views have changed, and I would vote the other way in another referendum
My views have changed a bit, and I am now not sure how I would vote
I would not vote in another referendum
According to the data-tables 32% of 2014 NO voters have changed their views and they would vote the other way, or their views have changed a bit and are now not sure how they would vote. This is the same for 17% of 2014 YES voters.
Secondly Ballot Box Scotland reports ComRes polling which suggests a huge pro-independence majority of 25 seats.
Based on a shift since August the poll would result in SNP – 66 (-1 / +3) Conservative – 25 (-1 / -6) Labour – 22 (+4 / -2) Green – 11 (+1 / +5) Lib Dem – 5 (-3 / nc).
This would mean five new Green MSPs dominating the pro-indy regional vote. There is no showing for the SSP, Brexit Party, UKIP, or any of the new independence parties. It seems inconceivable that these are a viable project at this stage. If the polls were to come true at election time this would surely mean a (short-lived) career end for Richard Leonard and Douglas Ross, amongst others.