Yes Would Win a Poll Held Tomorrow
The Savanta Com Res Poll shows a remarkable continued support for the SNP and for Yes, but also increased cross-party support for Nicola Sturgeon. Significant proportions of 2019 Labour and Conservative voters say they’ve become more likely to vote for the SNP in May having seen how they’ve responded to the Coronavirus pandemic, according to a new poll by Savanta ComRes and The Scotsman. This should be an Endgame for Leonard, Ross and Rennie – but in this country the opposition are operating at such a low bar of expectation – and have such a small gene pool of talent – that virtually nothing will remove these political leaders – distinguished only by their mediocrity – from their positions.
More than a third of 2019 Labour voters say that they’re now more likely to vote for the SNP in May than they were, thanks to the SNP’s response to the pandemic, while 13% of 2019 Conservative voters say the same.
Almost half (46%) of 2019 Labour voters say that their impression of Nicola Sturgeon has gotten better since the pandemic began due to her management of it, while a third (36%) of 2019 Conservative voters say the same. This is odd given that the Scottish Government’s handling of the pandemic has been – arguably – very similar to that of the UK government’s. The difference though is one of perceived integrity. The First Minister is perceived as being hard-working, diligent and authentic. In contrast the UK government is perceived as being riddled with cronyism and contempt for ordinary people.
The poll also finds that ‘Yes’ would comfortably win an independence referendum were it held tomorrow, with 57% of likely voters choosing ‘Yes’ compared to 43% choosing ‘No’.
But if the polling is terrible news for Scottish Labour and the Conservatives, and their beleaguered leaders, it’s also terrible news for the Pitchfork Bloggers who are now dedicated almost exclusively to attacking the First Minister. We’re in such a weird place now that these polling figures will enrage not only the Tories but some factions within the independence movement.
As the Brexit fiasco continues to destroy the Scottish fishing industry, the Scottish Conservatives will continue to free-fall as the public watches in real time the economic ‘hit’ of the democratic deficit that pulled us out of the EU against our wishes.
The Unionists response will doubtless be more of the same: double-down on the Constitution, repeat failing policies and outlook, and pursue relentless opportunism. They will unite to suppress any chance of democratic expression with their only two effective policies left: deny a referendum and hope and pray that the pandemic stops the election going ahead.
That’s their vision. That’s it.
The projected seats show a big pro-indy majority with the Scottish Greens projected to pick up 11 seats on the list, pushing the Liberal democrats into fifth, and Labour overtaking the Conservatives in second. The loss of Andy Wightman does not seem to have had any impact on the Green vote.
- Holyrood constituency voting intention: SNP 53 (-2); Con 19 (-1); Lab 18 (+2); LD 6 (-); Other 4 (+1)
- Holyrood list voting intention: SNP 44 (+2); Lab 18 (+1); Con 16 (-4); Green 11 (-1); LD 8 (+1); Other 3 (-)
As the Brexit debacle unfolds and anger at the UK Government’s handling of the pandemic continues then the likelihood is that the Tories will continue to hemorrhage votes – and Labour has little to say about any of the important issues of the day. It’s entertaining to watch the Liberal Democrats, recently a party of office, managed decline under the leadership of Willie Rennie. The best that the Unionist parties can hope for is that the election doesn’t happen at all.