2007 - 2021

The State of the Union

It’s (sort of )Burns Night and here’s where we are:

  1. As the poor Times reports: “The UK is facing a constitutional crisis that will shake the foundations of the Union, as new polls reveal today that a majority of voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland want a new referendum on the break-up of Britain.”
    *
  2. In Northern Ireland, a majority — 51 per cent to 44 per cent — want a referendum about the border within the next five years.
    *
  3. We now have a much clearer routemap to the next Scottish independence referendum.The approach attempts to reconcile the need for urgency with the need for credibility. It should (and will) unite a fractured movement.
    *
  4. The idea of Scotland as a European nation – ‘Scotland in Europe’ – hasn’t gone away:
    “Support for independence has grown sharply among pro-EU Scots, and declined by broadly the same proportion among pro-Brexit Scots. But as Remainers outnumbered Leavers in 2016 by almost two-to-one, the number of Remainers converting to independence is much larger than the number of Leavers becoming unionists. The overall effect has been a marked increase in support for independence.Comparing YouGov’s results from just before the Brexit referendum with its latest findings from a few weeks ago shows how the ‘Brexit gap’ – the difference between Remainers and Leavers in their backing for Scottish independence – has jumped from a negligible three percentage points to as much as 30.Separate research findings from both Ipsos MORI and the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey tell much the same story. Scottish voters are increasingly sorting themselves into two distinct tribes: those who support both independence and membership of the EU, and a smaller but still significant number who oppose both. This reconfiguration of Scottish politics has big implications for the coming election. The two pro-independence parties, the SNP and the Greens, are also strongly pro-EU. The combination of the two causes is increasingly popular.”
    *
  5. Tactical voting hasn’t gone away.Despite the marginal idea of alternative parties – the reality is that a vote SNP 1 and Green 2 could have dramatic impact. If the truth of this goes becomes understood it has huge implications. Kellner again: “In at least six regions, and possibly all eight, they will be wasting their regional vote if they stick with the SNP, for it could not help to elect a single extra SNP MSP. If SNP supporters want to maximise the number of pro-independence, pro-EU MSPs, they need to back another party that has the same two objectives.This is where the existence of two such parties comes into play. The voting system provides a strong inducement for pro-independence Scots to cast their constituency vote for the SNP and their regional vote for the Greens. Suppose the SNP wins around 65 of the 73 constituencies (it could achieve this even if its current poll rating slips slightly). If the Greens’ current support holds up, they might win 8-10 regional seats without tactical voting by SNP supporters. This would bring the pro-independence total in the new parliament to 73-75, and a modest majority in Holyrood.However, if enough voters split their vote between the SNP at the constituency level and the Greens regionally, the number of Green MSP could rise to 30 or more.The consequences would be dramatic. Almost 100 MSPs would be pro-independence. They would outnumber the combined ranks of the anti-independence parties – the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats – by three-to-one.”
  6. Let that sink in.
    As the Scottish Green Party’s Lorna Slater has said:

    “An astonishing 20 consecutive opinion polls have now demonstrated majorities in favour of independence. Scottish Greens will go into May’s election with a clear commitment to put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands, and the people of Scotland will have their voices heard.”
    *

  7. None of these results were inevitable. They are the result of conceit and mismanagement by a coterie of Conservatives whose own privilege has blinded them to the reality of Britain’s constitutional crisis. But Scotland could never break up Britain on its own. What we are now watching in real time is Britain imploding with force from four nations, including England’s own sense of self.
    *
  8. This momentum is so huge that there’s very little that will be able to stop it. The Unionists efforts to gerrymander or put-off the vote is a catastrophic mistake. Some of them know this.The farce of Brexit is a dynamic within this process. But it is inadequate on its own and the idea of seamlessly returning to a EUtopian future is misplaced.
    *
  9. The major impediment to these set of circumstances becoming an unstoppable force are from within the Yes movement. That’s a bizarre and unfortunate irony, but it’s also true.
    *
  10. The framing of the need for independence as the need for post-covid reconstruction is salutary.The movement – and the country – needs to get up to speed with this new reality.
    *
  11. It’s coming yet for a’ that.

 

 

 

 

Comments (21)

Leave a Reply to PhilipR Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

  1. Axel P Kulit says:

    So How do we stop the independence movement preventing independence?

    1. James Mills says:

      Stop arguing among ourselves – we all want the same outcome !

    2. I think by creating and strengthening forums and structures that take us forward, by ‘exercising the muscle’ of democracy, by radicalising the movement and by opening our imaginations to the innovation of how you campaign and protest under corona.

    3. Blair says:

      Axel,

      We share our values with England and rescue them from the nasty Tories. The Westminster machine is bust and broken, Scotland will remain an independent nation just as they were over 400 years ago. With hindsight, and belief in God, Scotland will alter the worlds view of religion and set people free to determine for themselves who they serve:
      God’s Kingdom (Britain), The Tories United Kingdom (British Empire) or A New World Order. (being created by an elite organization through the political classes over the same time period).

      ISAIAH 55

      Scot Free?: Religious Tourism will fund Scotland. Scotland is thee place to visit, explore the birth place of The Holy Ghost and walk through God’s living library our technology will bring to life.

      -CVB

    4. Foghorn Leghorn says:

      By ensuring that it doesn’t do or say anything that might scare the horses of Middle Scotland, which might bolt if they catch a whiff of a ‘thou shalt’ Leftist threat to their consumerist lifestyles.

  2. Paul Lyon says:

    Very good article Mike and I also liked how you used the 11 points. But as was said above there is a fringe element who seem intent on doing everything they can to stop independence and I’m not talking about Westminster. I just hope that these people, they seem to be religious as they follow a reverend, are only a few. All this infighting is not what we need at this time. Everyone who feels passionately about Scotland’s future needs to get behind Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

  3. Allan Douglas-Munn says:

    Looking at the last election would suggest that both votes SNP would still be best in South Scotland (and potentially H&I) but everywhere else would be a waste.

    1. Jim Sansbury says:

      Not entirely true.
      Tory Bowie in W Aberdeenshire has a majority of 843.
      That surely has to be reversable given general Tory unpopularity and the effect of IMB on farming.

  4. Bob says:

    20 polls in a row showing a majority for independence speaks volumes, however polls do not deliver independence. When the 21st poll shows increased support what we are displaying is weakness through inertia while the British State continues to act without delay against Scottish independence regardless of the pandemic by saying No to a referendum, by expanding the Westminster Scottish office in Edinburgh from a handful of people to about 3,000 employed by Whitehall and by imposing the Internal Market Bill on Scotland that removes powers from our parliament .

    It is not the State of the Union that concerns me, it is the state of the Scottish government to act. There is nothing encouraging about their latest ‘plan’ for independence appearing just before the SNP seek reelection. This should have already happened clearing the way for May elections being confirmation of our intentions.

    Like the never ending polls with no authority, the continued mantra of phrases like “Its coming yet” only encourages inertia and delay.

  5. Tom Ultuous says:

    “If SNP supporters want to maximise the number of pro-independence, pro-EU MSPs, they need to back another party that has the same two objectives.”

    This is the big message we have to get across before the election.

    1. Tom Ultuous says:

      “The voting system provides a strong inducement for pro-independence Scots to cast their constituency vote for the SNP and their regional vote for the Greens.”

      Just to be clear.

      1. Jim Stamper says:

        In 2011 the SNP had a majority government which helped force the issue of the section 30 order being agreed to. The SNP hasn’t had a majority government since and the Greens have refused to go into a coalition government leaving the SNP in a weaker position. We should look region by region to assess where the SNP could get a list MSP if both votes SNP was applied giving the best chance of a majority SNP government – refusing a Section 30 in that case would be more difficult. In regions where this appeared not possible then vote constituency SNP and list Greens to maximise number of pro-independence MSPs.

        1. Tom Ultuous says:

          I’m fine with that.

  6. Blair says:

    From God’s Living Library: Listen

    https://sheddbaptist.uk/talks/invisible-war/

    The points to note are Satan is in control of the Earth. We don’t have freedom or free choice (our governments control that).

    Scotland has a way to reconnect with God through the Holy Spirit and Bella. She has been helping us achieve independence for some time from those who work under Satan, who choose for us and severely limit our ability to lead our lives the we want, the way God had planned.

    Religion is a construct of Satan.

    The Father, Son and Holy Ghost are living spirits of God. They were all born without sin, and accepted by God in Heaven as His.

    It’s not where we were born that counts, it’s where we were conceived. Israel, Nazareth and Scotland are God’s three.

    Scotland really does have real power, don’t let our elected members prevent us from using it as we fight for God in this spiritual war.

    -CVB.

    1. Gashty McGonnard says:

      Had not been aware of that. #informed

      1. Argento Magus says:

        I for one would have preferred to remain completely uninformed as to such arrant nonsense. “….the birth place of the holy ghost”; “Israel, Nazareth and Scotland are god’s three.” Total gobbledegook.

        1. Foghorn Leghorn says:

          I believe Dan Brown is working on a new novel, in which Bella features prominently and Robert Langdon’s true identity as Mike Small is finally revealed.

      2. Blair says:

        Gashty,

        That’s good enough to create a foundation on which to build other pieces of information until get to where you can start to see how Scotland can achieve real independence through knowledge of how things ought to work together for everyone’s good.

  7. Andrew Anderson says:

    It would be a lot easier to contemplate a list vote for the Greens if Andy Wightman was back on their list.

  8. PhilipR says:

    I’m English, left wing, and I believe that a second referendum is inevitable. My only concern if you do become independent is that most of Scotland’s trade is with the rest of the UK, and Spain may veto Scotland joining the EU out of self interest. I voted remain, but there is nothing I can do now to stop what has happened. Please be aware that Scottish independence is supported down south by people who believe in democracy.

Help keep our journalism independent

We don’t take any advertising, we don’t hide behind a pay wall and we don’t keep harassing you for crowd-funding. We’re entirely dependent on our readers to support us.

Subscribe to regular bella in your inbox

Don’t miss a single article. Enter your email address on our subscribe page by clicking the button below. It is completely free and you can easily unsubscribe at any time.