Black Mirror Scotland

Inside the bin fire of Scottish politics.

The leadership campaign has shifted from debacle to high-farce, a distinction not everyone has recognised. Let’s face it things were already going badly ( … ): a trio of low-grade candidates knocking lumps out of each other, and their party and their time in office; a void of any new ideas; and a dearth of policy. But now its descended into a bin fire reminiscent of the Trump-Giuliani media management era.

The crisis and debacle is Popcorn material for the other parties and must inevitably lead to a collapse of the SNP, but its entirely unclear what good comes of it (electorally) for wider Scottish politics other than generalised carnage.

But this phenomenon could be observed emerging from two different trends over years.

The first is the SNP’s inheritance of the Blairite modus operandi of professionalism, projection of The Leader, much vaunted ‘discipline’, and relentless triangulation. Added to this the complete lack of transparency and the centralisation of power withing a tiny grouping. SNP folk agreed with all of this as it is a sure-fire way of winning elections, which it did, relentlessly. Now those very same traits and tactics have become the Achilles Heel bringing down the ruling party. Despondency about the lack of strategy to win independence – and the reduction of the GRR issue into the sole question across society have all combined in a perfect storm. The SNP leadership have to take responsibility for this reality.

The second factor is the growth of the wildly obsessive and paranoid front within the Yes movement, which has culminated in Ash Regan’s comic candidacy. This tendency (to borrow a phrase from the Left) has been characterised by conspiracy, wild unsubstantiated allegations and a toxicity that has turned from attacks on the ‘Yoons’ to attacks on anyone within the Yes movement who doesn’t buy into the deranged fantasies of the tribe. The hate blogs and grifters have not so much poisoned the well of public discourse as shat in it and charged people for sips. The independence movement have to take responsibility for this reality.

 

In Regan’s candidacy – and today’s race – you can see the culmination in years of erosion of rational thinking and the descent into the dark dark space of hate blogs, internecine warfare, and deeply paranoid thinking that has spewed out across the movement like bile.

If the SNP has haemorrhaged members like we’ve discovered, you ain’t seen nothing yet, whatever the outcome of the leadership contest. Any outcome will result in massive splits and re-alignment. There is no unity candidate, there is no post-contest ‘putting things back in the box’, the blood on the carpet is thick and deep. The ‘stop the steal’ movement has been halted in its tracks because of a lack of any credible evidence – and the candidates own lack of conviction to follow-through. What the effect has been has to pour shit all over the process while the candidates Ash and Kate solemnly claiming they will abide by a process they have both publicly trashed.

The intent of forcing membership numbers into the public was to trash the reputation of Humza Yousaf in government and to smear the whole process, casting doubt on the result and playing to the blogosphere and radge fringe. No doubt this has been entirely successful but the effect was also to spray all candidates with friendly fire. While Humza struggles to shed the mantle of Mr Continuity, the other candidates have a tightrope to walk – on one hand claiming the authority and experience of their time in office – on the other hand spraying that very office with accusations of mediocrity and corruption.

Kate Forbes’ campaign manager said this morning the “alarming drop in members shows that the party needs a change in direction”. Of course it does. But the idea that out of this shitshow the SNP will emerge – purged and cleansed and re-united is a laughable one.

The outcome? I think the plaintive pleadings from all sides that they will respect the outcome and work together won’t survive the light of day.

Ash Regan and her backers can’t really survive this process intact and will have to make some strategic choices about their next moves. The Scottish Labour Party will surely make some gains – as polling suggests (+14) – but have such a poor offering both socially (UK) and constitutionally (Scotland) and such shattered trust they are still broken. While commentators eagerly pour over the SNP’s self-inflicted damage it’s extremely unclear who or what will be the beneficiaries of such a collapse.

Such is the domination of Scottish politics that the SNP can take massive hits to membership numbers and share of the vote and still be the countries only mass party and dominant electoral force. The question is whether that trajectory leads them further down down down under their new leader, and you can take very single one of the criticisms of the Sturgeon era and agree with them – and still see no coherent path laid out by any of the candidates (‘voter empowerment mechanisms’ aside).

If Kate Forbes is successful she will have real difficulties assembling a team of consensual and competent ministers willing to cohere around her agenda. If Humza Yousaf wins he will struggle to contain the storm of protest around him – the smears about the process – the many questions about his time in office – and to hold together a party that is deeply and bitterly divided. If Ash Regan wins we will all be liberated by Christmas.

As this dark pantomime plays out its final ten days, Suella Braverman is off to Rwanda with GB news and the Daily Mail in tow to ratify her new Illegal Immigration Bill, your shelves are still empty and the energy companies are running an extortion racket. Boris Johnson has been re-selected as the Tory candidate in Uxbridge, Jeremy Hunt has just announced a massive £1 billion bonanza for the already super-wealthy, and this year marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War. There is no redemption within the Union.

In this context, as Britain slides further towards a new form of fascism, the fact that the SNP contest resembles a Four Seasons Total Landscaping press conference is unforgiveable. As the American press corps gathered in 2020 at the mistakenly booked landscaping centre located between a sex shop and a crematorium – the Associated Press projected Biden as the winner of the Pennsylvania vote and thus the nationwide election. This was the end of Trump. Time was up. This bin fire has much the same energy and no doubt the same outcome.

 

Comments (49)

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  1. CathyW says:

    Let us just hope, Mike, that out of chaos comes opportunity… Sorry, ‘hope’ is too passive: there is a crying need for a revival of the radical left both in grass-roots activism and, for what it’s worth, with some representation in ScotParl too (preferably not ending in anything like Sheridan’s implosion under his own hubris…) Arrrgghhh! Beam me up, Scotty!!

  2. John MacKenzie says:

    “The crisis and debacle is Popcorn material for the other parties and must inevitably lead to a collapse of the SNP”

    “Collapse” seems more than a little bit premature and alarmist. If nothing else, whoever wins will have the backing of at least half the party, so an absolute worst-case scenario of mass cancellations on a scale never seen before would still leave them with a membership in the region of 35,000-40,000, which leaves them miles ahead of any other party in Scotland. Unless those cancellations include tens of thousands of members who backed the winning candidate, which seems unlikely.

    A Forbes win will damage their electoral prospects, but probably not so badly as to be described as a “collapse”.

    This debacle heavily suggests that Humza Yousaf has got it in the bag. Ash Regan is an idiot who has been a complete embarrassment to both herself and the party throughout the entire contest, so her role in this doesn’t really tell us anything. But for Kate Forbes to get involved suggests a campaign in complete desperation. There was absolutely nothing for her to gain from getting involved in this nonsense if she is serious about leading the party, so that would suggest they are not getting good feedback from ordinary members.

    Granted, her campaign so far shows she has been receiving awful advice from her team, which is no great surprise given who her campaign manager is and who her public supporters are, but getting involved in this is a whole different level. If she felt she still had a chance, she would be looking to present herself as the adult in the room, rather than joining in Regan’s scorched earth policy.

    One thing is clear. If Humza Yousaf doesn’t act swiftly to reinstall a bit of discipline into the party, then he is doomed to have little authority. Nicola Sturgeon has an incredible amount of personal authority, and yet people like Joanna Cherry still felt emboldened enough to disrespect her leadership repeatedly. Yousaf will not have that personal authority, so he cannot afford to continue the “let them bump their gums” approach that appears to have been adopted by the Sturgeon leadership, or his will be damaged before it’s begun.

    1. Does “Collapse” still seems more than a little bit premature and alarmist?

      1. John MacKenzie says:

        Absolutely. There’s not a chance in hell that Murrell would have been staying on as CEO – at worst, he’s been denied the dignity of departing on his own terms, and the handover may not be as smooth as whoever wins might have wanted. But the end result will be the same, because this contest is very much about handing the keys over to the next generation of the SNP, and that includes a rejig at Party HQ.

        The Murray Foote departure is probably a bigger problem, since no one would have been intending to force him out, but even that isn’t cataclysmic, and I expect the winner will try to persuade him back because he seems to be held in very high regard by the MSPs.

        But they’re still nowhere near collapse territory, and it looks like they may even end this contest with more members than they started with, not least because Regan’s nonsense these past few days appears to have rallied a lot of lapsed members back to the party.

  3. SAJackson says:

    I think you need to get off twitter Mike, you seem to be losing it a bit, no sign of the SNP falling apart, just some people leaving for the greens and some others moving back to the SNP, the old guard is getting moved on, it’s just a shuffling of the cards called party democracy. I’m the happiest I’ve been for a long time with the changes, seems like Independence is possible again. It’s a large movement, with enough space for everyone, you might not like it but Kate (who isn’t my first choice) is the most popular with the public, and the party, that sounds pretty positive to me. You helped do a number of Alex, but it’s failed this time. it’s wormed up today, go for a walk mike and don’t take your phone, it will do you some good.

    1. Kevan Shaw says:

      SNP has had internal democracy removed. It needs NEC majority elected by members and policy decision at conference returned to members. Without this nothing significantly will change and party remains tainted by Murrells behaviour. If this ends up being criminal SNP criminal by association unless radically changed.

  4. Kevan Shaw says:

    Thanks a bunch for this divisive and irresponsible attack on the entire Independence movement. The SNP is a mess and only a revolutionary leader such as Ash can return it. Your ad hominem attack on her and the other candidates is unhelpful, unless you are a Murrel loyalist of course then trashing the process so they can drop in Angus Robertson is your game!

    Bella Caledonia used to be a helpful left leaning part of the Indy movement, this post shows it to be as damaged as the SNP itself!

    1. LOLs Kevan – yeah you have rumbled me – parachuting Angus in as leader right now! : )

    2. Frank Mahann says:

      The ‘Movement’ tail to wag the SNP dog.

    3. John Mooney says:

      ASH comes across as a complete nut job,a total trumpian type,she also comes across as an amatuar false flag operator,I have voted SNP since 1968 but this bunch of malcontents are destroying the party and the whole hope of independence,a shit show if ever there was one caused by regan and forbes and their pathetic acolytes!

      1. SAJackson says:

        Ash come across as a complete nut job?! ok err some who advocates the old SNP policy that used to be accepted by even the Tories as a legitimate process for gaining independence. which Alex overturned with the ref guff. I came back from Canada via London in 2004 and since then started voting for pro independence party’s, I thought that the old policy still held when I first voted, thinking with the first majority in the Scottish parliament that it was done and dusted. At last we get someone in the political process that follows what the movement and the SNP was biased on, that many thought was going to happen when they started voting SNP over 15 years ago and all you can say is “she sounds like a complete nut job” your in the wrong movement mate. I suppose you think team Humza fan’s like Alyn’ indie in 50 year’ Smith MP are the vioce of reason. obh obh, tha sin neo-thuigse.

  5. Mary MacCallum Sullivan says:

    This is coming across as a bit hysterical, Mike. I daresay that I don’t have access to the information you have, and I await the outcome with interest, but I just don’t recognise your characterisation.
    There was always going to be a chaotic process, given that no-one was given any notice or any means of preparing for this contest. If it is still being ‘managed’ by Murrell, then one might surmise an attempt still to control the party. But when Sturgeon is gone, she is gone.
    If the candidates are of ‘poor’ quality, might that be anything to do with the complete lack of anything resembling ‘succession planning’, or even a ‘rational’ and constructive process of mentoring and supporting good MSP who might usefully become senior Ministers and so on?
    I will continue to hold Sturgeon and Murrell responsible for the very poor governance that has brought us to this place. I will continue to have faith that useful people will, sooner or later, rise to the front (not ‘the top’!). Let’s have some faith in the Scottish people, Mike.

    1. I don’t think its hysterical at all, just observing what’s actually happening here.

      But I do agree with you in part: “If the candidates are of ‘poor’ quality, might that be anything to do with the complete lack of anything resembling ‘succession planning’, or even a ‘rational’ and constructive process of mentoring and supporting good MSP who might usefully become senior Ministers and so on?”

      Yes, precisely.

      I have plenty of faith in the Scottish people, just less and less in the political system

  6. Wullie B says:

    what a fanny you are posing Kate forbes as the Qanon twat from the Jan 6 riot, if you actually knew her you would find her a kind decent person who practices a faith, but doesn’t push it on others, it was well known she was a Wee Free when she was DAve Thompsons replacement and the people of the constituency elected her, then she got a 6500 vote gain the next election, because she actually does represent her constituents

  7. Alistair Taylor says:

    Hysterical writing.

    And the photo of Kate as Qanon in poor taste.

    But, I suppose that it’s your website and you can do what you want.

    Cheers.

  8. SleepingDog says:

    Party politics doesn’t work, at least in the way it is publicly supposed to, and I haven’t been following the SNP leadership developments since my time is better spent on alternative politics, trying to piece together reliable history and real-world concerns.

    I have noticed a triangle between Scotland, Catalonia and the Caribbean, which has bearings on Inependence and the long-awaited end of the British Empire. Imperial backlash against growing Caribbean reparations movements is a potential fracture point between Scotland and imperial-UK, at a moment where corruption stories about British-sphere Caribbean countries/territories are apparently emerging (why now?) and a story about how Catalonia got its wealth less from local industry but more from slavery.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/13/catalonia-confronts-past-racism-after-slave-trade-documentary

    Have foreign policy, reparations and End of Empire appeared in the SNP leadership contest so far?

  9. SAJackson says:

    where’s the picture gone Mike?

    1. Hi – the picture was from someone who didn’t want me to use it, deleted with apologies.

  10. Colin Kirkwood says:

    Calm down guys! We should welcome ourselves and all of the Scottish people back onto the stage of history, which is where we belong.

    Pluralism is good. It is essential. The deviation into authoritarianism, collectivism and paranoid central control should be recognised for what it is. Let it go. Replace it with dialogue.

    These three candidates are all basically decent people. They need to work together.

    Self-Government, which I advocate, is not for 51 % of the people. It is for all of us. We need a change of ethos, a change of orientation. We need hope, and a different kind of unity.

  11. Paul Packham says:

    This is an interesting piece which raises a couple of questions from a novice of the internal workings of the SNP and its supporters.
    Do you think that the percentage decrease in SNP party membership will result in a similar decrease in votes?
    I ask because south of the border, a huge number of people who have parted ways with the Labour Party years ago will still ‘hold their nose’ and vote Labour at the ballot box.
    Surely the question of the constitution will still bring in a huge vote for the SNP or is it likely to drive the Yes movement onto the streets in every larger numbers?
    I hope the latter is the case as I think that is the only way we can see an independent country shaped by the people

  12. angus a macdonald says:

    sir,written by a small mind person,that probaby that belong to a sect of people that believe their own lies,never the truth,regardess ,their foot soldiers are out there pushing a single agenda to get their man into office,Mumza Yousaf,?
    Do Scotland need this,when the media selects their champion,all the right wing papers have very good comments to support Scotland,they like to promote where the money is,being it dishonest,slush,backhanders,etc,!
    You will always get the guy ,who has been promised the 30 pieces.
    For all the good it will do him?

  13. WT says:

    I’m sorry Mike, but what did you expect from a leadership contest after Sturgeon balkanised the movement and the party? It is after all a fight for control of the so-called party of independence for heavens sake. What kind of boxing do you watch? ‘I say old chap after you? No, you go first. No you go…’ (I know you probably don’t watch boxing.

    Like so many people these days you’re too involved in the world of social media to be able to take an objective view of the reality in which we find ourselves. There is a world outside of social media and it’s not as frenetic, is more considered and perhaps more boring – but generally it’s that same atmosphere as when Harold Wilson and Ted Heath were elected. There is discussion but no anger. I’ve found it difficult to understand the attitudes on here at times and am perplexed by the lack of reason or respect for persons and institutions. I accept that there is a time and circumstance to ignore or repudiate institutions but that has only really occurred in the last year (Supreme Court), for the last eight years? No.

    You hate Salmond – for what? You eventually got disappointed in Sturgeon – why did it take you so long? You think the over sixties’ political and social views have no value as they are not trendy enough or something – why’s that? You don’t like Regan – why’s that? You don’t like Forbes – take the log out of your eye. You now know Humza’s crap but you won’t have a go at him – why’s that? You have failed to ask the serious questions of the party of independence for the last eight years – why was that? Here we are in a situation that should never have been allowed to happen and you never saw it coming – why is that?

    For the last eight years you peddled some support for a fairly talentless First Manager and trashed and indeed continue to trash an innocent man who had been a good First Minster. You tried to occupy a political area already covered perfectly well by the Canary and the Dog Section press – why? There were more important things to do. How about this for an idea, you stop trashing everyone you don’t like, leave off the social media for a while, have a look at Scottish politics again and write constructively rather than trashing all the time. There is no doubt that you can write, you write really well and then some. Put independence first, forget all the favouritism and petty dislikes and write objectively promoting independence. We need a a good independent media in Scotland, why is it that it’s all opinion pieces, never an interview? Why in eight years did none of our independence supporting websites critically interview Nicola Sturgeon? Why in eight years did none of our independence supporting websites interview anyone else for than matter? This is time for change. Let’s change that and our negative attitudes. Let’s be positive, lets hold people on our side to account just as we do the other side lets critically examine what people say but cut the carping. Let’s get rid of the negativity towards those on our own side – and I do include myself in that.

    1. Alistair Taylor says:

      Well said WT.
      Scotland could certainly use some positivity.
      I was rather taken aback by this negative rant by Mike Small.
      (I like Bella Caledonia, and long may it continue.)
      Independence is going to be a collaborative effort, with many shoulders to the wheel. This idea of “great leader” (Nicola, or Alex) has been a great mistake.
      It’s going to be normal people working together that will turn the tide.

    2. SleepingDog says:

      @WT, I think you may be confused about what ‘independence’ actually is, if your whole spiel is criticism of the Editor for putting forward an independent view. Your pitch sounds like Jaques from Shakespeare’s As You Like It:
      JAQUES: I do not like her name.
      ORLANDO: There was no thought of pleasing you when she was christened.

      There is a crucial point here that needs to be stated clearly. Possibly the most important aspect of gaining an Independent Scotland is the hope that we can achieve a form of government that is accountable to the public (in a democracy) or more widely to all current and future generations of humans and non-humans on our shared planet (in a biocracy).

      An Empire, like the current British Empire, is typically designed so that accountability diminishes the further up the hierarchy you go. Therefore Sovereign immunity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_immunity
      We are long conditioned to a kind of political blindness, so that we cannot easily recognise injustices or see alternatives to our own system of politics. And we are conditioned to reject accountability in favour of tribal loyalties, of rewards and promises, of the supposed virtues of obedience and piety. So when we see a demand for accountability directed towards political leadership, all this conditioning can kick in.

      But the patterns we set now in our interactions will have a long shadow if we like it or not, recognise it or not. Bad politics today increases the chance of bad politics tomorrow. Access to politicians (which you demand) comes at a cost. Al Jazeera’s UpFront episode on Iraq war: ‘The media ended up being lapdogs, not watchdogs’ is perhaps usefully instructive on this point. We should be trying to make politicians uncomfortable with our reasonable and justifiably angry questioning, not plumping their pillows.

    3. Hi WT
      not sure how you know about my boxing habits but no I didn’t expect a polite exchange. But what we’ve witnessed isnt some ‘knockabout stuff’ its carnage and to pretend otherwise is stupid.
      The idea that life ‘outside; is the same as when Harold Wilson and Ted Heath were elected is quaint but silly.
      “You hate Salmond – for what? You eventually got disappointed in Sturgeon – why did it take you so long?” “You don’t like Regan – why’s that? You don’t like Forbes”
      Really its not about personality, I don’t ‘hate’ anyone I have profound political differences and provide some analysis on the problems they represent. To reduce it to just personal attacks is daft.

      You say “For the last eight years you peddled some support for a fairly talentless First Manager and trashed and indeed continue to trash an innocent man who had been a good First Minster. ” It’s true that I have not supported Salmond – like many others. He leads a party that polls 0.4% and peaked at 2.0%. Whatever your own personal views you have to acknowledge that is a failed party. I have been critical of Sturgeon’s government in hundreds of articles. Please remember I am a journalist not a scribe and it is not my job to be abstractly positive where I see real problems.

  14. gavinochiltree says:

    I am 73. Advocate all my life for independence, but never an SNP member. It has always been the case that for every low tide, the next high tide washed higher up the beach. I have met hundreds of independence supporters who could list the reasons and carry the argument for independence in a more coherent, and less divisive manner that any of these candidates for leader.
    I hope Forbes wins. Because she will reach a wider demographic than either of the others. But I hope the SNP can look to its past, when it was a beacon of democracy, empowerment for regional Scotland and a hope for social advancement.
    If the SNP splits into right and left, that would be better than total collapse, but united is best.

    However, a centre-right independence party could contest the north east and south west of Scotland.
    A centre-left independence party could contest west central Scotland.
    With what success I don’t know, but it might make politics more interesting.

    1. Alvin Vertigo says:

      Seventy One year old man thinks “Kate Forbes will reach a wider demographic.” LOL.

      1. Alvin Vertigo says:

        73 year old man, I mean. Which just makes your statement even more ridiculous. Straight and white too, I imagine?

        1. Anna says:

          What is your point, Alvin?
          I’m 67 and straight and white, by the way.

        2. SAJackson says:

          wild! that would be Scotland you live in?

        3. SAJackson says:

          Alvin that is.

  15. Paddy Farrington says:

    This feels like the true end of the 2014 referendum campaign and of the movement that grew out of it. Time to discuss, and rebuild, on firmer foundations this time.

    1. SAJackson says:

      true, but to be honest it was dead on arrival, a lot of people felt pushed out the way at that time, or just put up with stuff like the referendum process to gain independence. the major trouble was that just at the time the SNP started getting votes, it had given up on independence in any real way, just look at indie light and devo max along with the nonsense of the currency policy etc. like I said in a early comment, people like myself voted for one thing then got the other, the lack of democracy and the “to big to fail” situation meant stagnation, now NS is out the way having delayed independence with the old policy’s for another 8 to 10 years. i feel really positive with the change, i think we might get independence not a lot of the old neo-con dead wood seems to be shifting. it might not look like it now, but I think opening up to direct democracy again in the movement is what’s needed. I feel Kate will plan for independence, unlike the current crowd, and listen to Ash, I want to rejoin the party now because I think we can make progress on getting back a credible independence policy, I’m not a civic nationalist by any stretch, but pushing the SNP to match fitness seems a good goal

      1. SAJackson says:

        typo I meant to say “now a lot of neo-con dead wood seems to be shifting”. Even if KF seems like more of the same the call for democracy and being prepared and the chance to shift the dynamic of the process, that the likes of AIM and NC failed to do, means change and independence can happen.

        1. SAJackson says:

          oh well, spoke too soon, seems like mike and other indie saboteurs like the SNP and the green’s got there way again, by lost my vote for good. after 15 years of voting for these useless pricks. but it seems it’s nearly 50% of the party as well. Oh well. I just hope the 30,000 or 40,000 find a new indie party to join.

          1. SleepingDog says:

            @SAJackson, well, if anyone is looking to repurpose an ensemble of black-on-yellow activism-wear…
            https://www.republic.org.uk

      2. Paul Packham says:

        I finding this thread really interesting and while what happens going forward is vital it is important not to repeat mistakes from the past.
        I was in Scotland in 2914 for a visit but didn’t have a vote, I’ve lived here now for few years so I’m looking at the development of the political situation closely.
        However I’d like to understand how we got here. Are there any books on the history of the SNP or the Indy movement that you would recommend? Thanks

        1. Wul says:

          “…I was in Scotland in 2914 for a visit…”

          Greetings time-traveller! Can you tell us if we had achieved independence? Or were we still too wee, too poor and too stupid?

          1. SleepingDog says:

            @Wul, I wonder if it is only time-travellers from the future that get votes; that is, they may have attempted to solve the “but what about future generations?” problem.

          2. Paul Packham says:

            Oh, what a typo!

        2. Graham Boyd says:

          You might like to try these books:
          The Case for Scottish Independence: A History of Nationalist Political Thought in Modern Scotland, Ben Jackson, Cambridge Press, 2020
          A Better Nation: The Challenges of Scottish Independence, edited by Gerry Hassan & Simon Barrow, Luath Press, 2022
          How to Start a New Country: A Practical Guide for Scotland (Long version) Commonweal (https://commonweal.scot/publications

          1. Paul Packham says:

            Thank you Graham

    2. Agreed, it is, though its end point started much earlier imho

  16. JP58 says:

    I am not an SNP member and although always sympathetic to independence I have only become a supporter since 2014.
    The independence movement is almost inevitably going to be a broad church with a range of political views and this is going to be reflected in the main political party of independence. The sustained electoral success of SNP has come post 1979 when it became more broadly social democratic in outlook which is broadly in line with majority of electorate in Scotland.
    It appears to me that the current outbreak of infighting has 3 causes:
    1. The failure to articulate a clear path to independence after refusal of Holyrood’s Section 30 request by Westminster. This is a tactical failure by NS although I have yet to hear a short term feasible alternative. This frustration with how to achieve the number one priority of SNP was inevitably going to lead to frustration.
    2.The SNP have been a tightly controlled organisation which has helped lead to the electoral success that it has achieved over last decade. The flip side of this control is unhappiness from those who have not had their voices heard.
    3.we are still seeing the fallout from the AS/NS fallout and all the bad blood is spilling out.
    I would add that the socially progressive agenda of SNP government has possibly got a bit ahead of where Scottish public opinion lies which is dangerous territory for any political party especially one which has to be a big tent.
    This article exhibits some of the bad blood from the factional infighting and leaves me cold.
    It appears that calling for cool heads is pointless now but people must keep their eyes on the bigger picture.
    Whoever new leader is their priorities will need to be:
    Try and bring SNP back together.
    Concentrate on showing competence in government and show electorate in Scotland how Holyrood government can improve their lives.
    Reach out to wider indendence movement and identintfy a workable strategy to achieve independence.
    Reach out to the section of electorate sympathetic to independence who have still to be convinced of case.
    The good news is the next Holyrood election is not until 2016 and this gives new leader time to bed in.

  17. edward chang says:

    The shitshow has a loooong way to go.

  18. John Monro says:

    Interesting times in Scotland, and everywhere else too. Where we mostly go wrong, and I think Mike your article above and the following discussion illustrates this very well, is that Scotland and its politics is just a microcosm, a metaphor if you like, for the much wider and truly existential issues converging on our humanity. (Global warming, overpopulation, ecological destruction, mass extinction, ocean acidification, accelerating numbers of environmental refugees, delusional growth predicated capitalism, imminent financial collapse…….) As I have yet to hear a single politician with any power at all, in any country on the planet, explain this honestly to their citizens, then everything we do politically and economically is making less and less sense and our failing systems are propped up by lies and obfuscations and irrelevances and diversions – – from all parties, all political perspectives. When the Greens in the UK support the NATO warmongering in Ukraine and the Labour party expels any socialist, you know we’re in deep trouble. Many people are beginning to understand this, hence the increasing and damaging mistrust of our institutions, but our human proclivity for putting uncomfortable or distressing ideas to one side is still triumphant. Our societies are driving at ever higher speed to a very hazardous future in the driving rain, failing to activate the demister and wipers, instead gazing impatiently at the clock in dashboard – the gender debate might be an example of such a metaphorical diversion.

    All that is being opined here, a bit shrilly, is just so parochial and irrelevant to the long term interests of the Scottish citizenry and the wider world in which we all fleetingly exist. Not a single politician in Scotland seems honest or open or understanding of any of this, and certainly the leadership candidates for the First Minister role are no different – bickering Scottish frogs in the warming witches’ cauldron. So it literally doesn’t matter a hoot who of the candidates becomes Scotland’s First Minister, they are all programmed to fail. Our whole civilisation is reaching a dead end, we have already missed the turn off to a survivable future a while back. We can still reverse to find it, and it will seem painful doing so, but it doesn’t look likely we will until nature does it for us, when the pain will be intolerable. .

    1. JP58 says:

      Questions to John Monro who seems to think he is so much wiser than the rest of us grifters.
      On Ukraine please answer the following:
      1.How many Russian soldiers on Ukrainian internationally recognised territory vs Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory.
      2.How many Russian bombs fallen on Ukraine vs Ukrainian bombs on Russia.
      3.How many Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian bombs or forces vs Ukrainian civilians killed by Russian bombs or forces.
      4.How many Russian civilians have fled Russia vs how many Ukrainian civilians have fled Ukraine.
      Having answered these questions do you think the answers would have been different if Ukrainians had not resisted the Russian invasion?
      Lastly the Ukrainians are begging for support to fend of this invasion – what would have happened if neighbouring and supporting countries had just left them to their own devices?

  19. Robert says:

    The Sturgeon cabal is coming apart (FINALLY) and all Mike Small can do is rant “It’s all Wings and Ash Regans’ fault for being divisive and paranoid.”

  20. Gerry Robertson says:

    I’m fraid your analysis is very wide of the mark. Indeed it shows a lack of understanding of the mindsets of most Scots. Whoever is nominated leader will have only a marginal effect on the Party and their membership as what defines the SNP and their support more than anything else is the detestation of Westminster and the toxic society the Tories are creating. I have argued that while it seems most ‘pundits’ have unfairly targetted the religious beliefs of Kate Forbes beyond others It may prove to be the reverse as many traditional middle class elderly ‘No’ voters may see her as an ally. Not sure either where you get your ‘polling’ figs from but most show only a small drop in SNP support (1%) drop since the high in January.

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