Ashes to Ashes
Ash Regan’s defection to the Alba party comes as no great surprise, and while it will add to the feeling of drift and disarray within the SNP it will do little to bolster the party she has joined. The defection adds to feeling of complete political failure across the political parties, the generalised feeling of decay and the moribund condition of the independence movement.
Two things can be true at the same time. She is quite right to see the SNP as having completely lost its way – but her new home has little coherent plans for independence and pitifully little public support. When Regan was elected in 2021 Alba received 2% of the vote, a highpoint.
2021 Regional vote in Edinburgh Eastern SNP – 39.6% Labour – 21.0% Tories – 15.8% Greens – 14.5% Lib Dems – 3.6% Alba – 2.0%
If she had the courage to defend her constituency it’s unlikely the percentage would be any different.
Ash Regan today said: “I could not, in good conscience, continue to be part of a party that has drifted from its path and its commitment to achieving independence as a matter of urgency.” Which is all fair enough and true enough, but having ‘urgency’ doesn’t mean you have a strategy or a coherent political project. The harsh reality is that Neale Hanvey, Kenny MacAskill and Angus MacNeil will be replaced by Labour candidates at the next election. Regan too will be swept away.
There’s much of this that is grandiose and weird. She has been declared the ‘Leader’ of the Alba group at Holyrood. But you need five MSPs to be classed as a party group by the Parliamentary Bureau, and as the academic Hannah Graham has pointed out “Regan is a member of two committees (Economy & Fair Work; Net Zero, Energy & Transport) *by virtue of being* an SNP MSP. Now she’s defected to Alba, she isn’t entitled to be on committees nor get priority at FMQs.”
She will doubtless be given massive airplay by the media keen to feed the Alba story, however ridiculous. I’m not sure lots of exposure is going to be very kind to her.
Regan’s leadership campaign faced widespread ridicule when when she suggested there could be a “readiness thermometer”, placed in a public place so people could see how close Scotland was to becoming independent. The design and details were never laid-out. Maybe that idea will be resurrected?
There’s a kind of hauntology about the independence movement now. Like Alex Salmond manfully battling through Storm Babet to cast his imaginary ballot to ridicule his former colleagues, it all feels like a bleak pantomime.
One consequence of the defection is the death of the bizarre ‘Scotland United’ tactic – an idea that was never rational but now is likely to be abandoned by the emboldened party sensing the SNP’s demise.
In the context of the horrors that are unfolding before us such manoeuvrings and grand-standing seem ridiculous. They are.
Ash Regan was the worst of 3 indifferent candidates for SNP leadership. This move is no surprise and appears to highlight the rather flaky ‘look at me’ characteristics apparent in her leadership campaign.
It now seems fairly inevitable that SNP will suffer a significant setback at next GE and even possibly lose power at next Holyrood elections.
This will lead to questions as to whether SNP is still fit to be political arm of independence movement. Whatever the answer is I am pretty sure it will not involve Alba which represents the older and more bitter section of independence movement an has nothing to offer the younger generation who are more supportive of independence and the key to achieving it within next 10-15 years.
Although not yet in the ‘older’ category myself, I can understand the desperation and sense of urgency amongst any committed independence supporter who is at the older end of the spectrum (which isn’t very old in Scotland).
Many have argued and campaigned their entire adult lives for independence, and they dread the idea that it will never be achieved in their lifetime.
The SNP could have and should have delivered independence before now. I thought that the passing of Winnie Ewing, for example might have made them realise that they are failing us in what we support them for.
We blew it in 2014. Despite a clear warning, the leadership of the Yes campaign, the SNP (and specifically Alex Salmond), failed to foresee and prepare for the inevitable, which was that the unionist parties (led in this case by the Scottish Labour Party), would deceive the electorate with a false pledge of Devo Max in the final days of the campaign.
Ash Regan was the only SNP leadership candidate who demonstrated a sense of urgency with respect to independence. Something that this defection by her demonstrates. It’s certainly not a career move, and that should be applauded, not lambasted, as it is in the above article.
Without knowing it, the SNP has become a party of devolutionists, the colonial administrators of the English Empire.
The eyes of the world right now are focused on problems brought about by colonialism, and the right of nations to self-determination.
We have a huge opportunity to leave the English Empire through the decolonisation route right now.
The problem is that our prospects of ever achieving independence are inextricably linked to the fortunes of one political party, the reputation and popularity of its MPs and MSPs, the ability of those MPs and MSPs to adhere to standards that are not required of their unionist counterparts, and their ability to do so in the face of a united (when it comes to the security of the Union) front from the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems.
Also, we have against us the full weight of the UK media, and doubtless the mainstream international media also, the UK establishment and all of their agencies from the Civil Service to the Secret Services, the UK and Labour Party aligned unions, and the lack of hope, determination and sense of urgency of the people who support independence.
I’m in my mid-forties and already I am hoping that my kids will at least see independence. What hope do my parents have, the majority of the members of the SNP and ALBA and many of my friends have?
We are far to supine and pretty much all of us are essentially complicit in the continuation of English rule over Scotland.
Ash has fire in her belly, and I only hope that fire spreads, and quickly!
An SNP member.
Couldn’t disagree with much you have stated, except I do not think the political situation is as dire as you think, we need a leader!
We (the independence movement) are where we are, because we have been left to whither on the vine. In such circumstances movements and parties turn in on themselves, indiscipline results and unity along with focus suffers.
Where we have failed and not helped ourselves is foreseeing this state of affairs compounded by austerity.
The uk government, need not to do anything in the face of SNP election wins. They refused to engage whilst the SNP tied itself in knots trying to solicit a reaction from westmister to address the political situation in Scotland. The uk government took a safe and predictably winning strategy, just ignore Scotland and let the state broadcaster and press pick holes in SNP governance, during an unprecedented, prolonged and continuing period of austerity that makes good governance impossible.
The british never gave anyone freedom without extracting everything they could get away with prior to departing and no one gained freedom from britain without sacrifice.
We still have time, we need to find a leader who can unite ALL the YES movement and plot an easily understood time bound route to independence. Crucially during that period we need to mount a level of civil disobedience across Scotland that makes uk governance problematic, costly that carries reputational damage home and abroad.
Currently the uk has no leader, unionism in Scotland has no leader, so for the YES movement and SNP finding a leader this is not an impossible task, but we must act quickly.
Hello John you say ‘Alba which represents the older…section of independence movement’ (I took out the unkind ‘and more bitter’ bit). This seems a bit ageist to me of which I see a lot more these days. Working with the elderly I take a very different viewpoint to this modern ‘get down and boogie’ view of being enthralled by the young. I think our elders have wisdom that is lacking in the young. These youngsters may well have idealism, but who doesn’t? Traditionally many societies viewed their elderly as having wisdom, they respected them perhaps we could do the same? Maybe listen to them than write them off as duds? Bitter duds. The reason the elderly are less inclined to vote for independence is that they are worried about their pensions – nobody has addressed this issue. It’s easy to sort and they would like some answers.
As support for the monarchy is reportedly much higher among the older demographics in Scotland, how does that square with the SNP being monarchists and Alba republicans, combined with the claim Alba appeals to older people? I am assuming that support for monarchy is kind of a capstone policy that is a generally good indicator of support for traditionalism, hierarchy, archaic value systems etc.
Plus, er, to take a random example from the Alba website, a keen desire for a Scottish hemp industry seems somewhat youth-friendly:
https://www.albaparty.org/scotlands_hemp_industry
although I couldn’t find a match for ‘hemp’ on the SNP website. Everyone’s clothes should be made from sustainable, locally-sourced materials, after all.
WT – I base my comments on several observations:
Most Alba supporters appear to be long standing SNP &/or Alex Salmond supporters who have become disillusioned with SNP in last few years. Therefore they will inevitably be older.
Many Alba supporters who post on this and other sites seem very opposed to the agreement with the Green Party and viscerally opposed to many of the joint policies to the point of bitterness.
Many Alba supporters still feel Alex Salmond was treated badly and commentate on current SNP party and leadership with a degree of bitterness towards them personally.
I agree that independence does seem further away than it has been since 2011 but maybe we have been looking at things through rose tinted spectacles.
Independence cannot realistically be achieved without persuading at least 60% of electorate in Scotland that it is a sound policy which will be of benefit to them, their family and society.
This will have to be achieved against a background of a hostile Westminster parliament and media and will require international support to be successful.
The good news is that younger people are more supportive of independence in general but we cannot take their support for granted.
It is now obvious that Westminster is highly unlikely to agree to a referendum it may lose so a new strategy is required that has mass support especially amongst younger voters. How to achieve this is not obvious but I am sure it will not be achieved by parties fracturing into small personal crusades or turning backwards on social and climate policies.
It should also be borne in mind that Alba, after several years of high profile media coverage, are still barely managing to register support that is statistically significant.
Divided parties and big egos do not win support they only turn off the very voters needed to achieve independence.
I re-emphasise my point that of the three candidates for leadership HY was a bit weak and staid, KF was disappointingly naive wrt to personal beliefs and spent too much time slagging off policies of the party she was a senior member of. AR came over as woefully underwhelming and unprepared having an inflated belief in her own abilities an assessment only re-emphasised by her recent jumping ship.
It was mostly the older generation who baked Brexit. So much for the wisdom of age !
Backed !
Baked ! – d’ough !
@Frank Mahann, next you’ll be accusing old people of believing everything they read on the side of a bun.
Every political party starts small, ALBA are unequivocally pro independance, Scottish Devolution Party, Not so.. Hopefully Ash has opened the Sluice gate.
@Alan C, it depends on how you define a new political party, but some parties can gain more than 10% of the vote in their first UK general election, as I think the Social Democratic Party did.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)#Election_results
Whereas at the beginning of the last century, I believe the Labour Party grew from less than 2% of the national vote to become the party of government within a generation. Pluralists tend to support the formation of small new parties as a way of representing a wider spectrum of voices, less likely to be captured by vested interests (in theory), but possibly more cranky (in practice), and more proportional electoral systems to encourage this.
Although the Alba website policy pages still look pretty sketchy and appear rather oddly written, I would say some of their policies seem better than the SNP, who want to keep the monarchy, for example. Talk about grandiose and weird.
But then, I do not think that humanistic nor theistic party politics are the solution to our mounting problems.
I’m soooo sick of Scottish politics. It’s pretty obvious that tories are fed up with the current administration at Westminster, ditto labour voters disillusionment with Starmer. But are the tories or labour splitting into different, discrete factions? No they aren’t because they know that discord within the party will lose it voters. So why the fuck are Scottish Independence politicians making such a fucking arse of the independence movement? Are they interested in bolstering their personal power, or actually achieving what their voters want – independence from England? It’s not as if any of the so-called independence parties can guarantee a massive result in any future election. I make no apology for swearing, and I don’t expect my comment to be edited!!!
The difference is neither the Tories nor Labour are parties based on one aim – independence, which is not specifically connected to any broader political worldview other than itself. And because that one aim is on the rocks there is little to fall back on that unites, hence the infighting (and this is coupled with some SNP social policies, vociferously championed, that are deeply divisive and unconnected to independence).
The SNP have been left to whither on the vine whilst in government, when reliant on a government elsewhere that Scotland sends its taxes to and who have ignored Scotland’s Government during 13 years of imposed austerity.
Is it any wonder there are disagreements, when despite winning every election, you can’t implement policies in your manifesto or provide for vulnerable people in society when, ultimately, someone else controls your budget, natural resources, TV, media & press, international relations, macro economic tools and blocks policies out of malevolence, etc.
On saying that, it does not excuse the behaviour of some intent on washing their laundry in public rather than in private.
as far as I’m aware ALBA have not revoked the “Scotland United” cause.
Perhaps you could enlighten us with your insight, Mike, regarding the statement
“the defection is the death of the bizarre ‘Scotland United’ tactic – an idea that was never rational but now is likely to be abandoned by the emboldened party sensing the SNP’s demise.”
Based on what determinable evidence …. or is it just your conjecture.
Quite, still waiting on miles analysis of the SNP conference and there independence strategy, also what’s his take on Salvo, and what approach he would take on independence?
At the last Holyrood election, Alba very visibly campaigned for people to vote SNP for some reason that’s beyond me, to the extent that they just looked like they were the SNP. Maybe that’s what it was. Or it might be a shinty club.
As for Thermometers Regan etc, they really should stand down and run for election. I’m not sure if the people of Edinburgh would have voted for her in the first place if they knew how unhinged she is.
Why is this article three stories down despite being the most recent published. Would have respect for Bella is you honestly faced up to the mess the SNP have left Scotland in. Mike’s flirtation with them has been terrible.
Robin McAlpine sussed them out a long time ago.
Hi Madeleine, the article is not the feature article because I think the events in Palestine are more important. I have examined the problems of the SNP and will do so in the future.
Hi Madeleine, the article is not the feature article because I think the events in Palestine are more important. I have examined the problems of the SNP and will do so in the future.
I agree. The Snp government has made a real mess of things with all these so-called achievements
1. 8bn health funding – The 2022/23 Scottish Budget takes total health portfolio funding to £18bn, with resource funding up over 90% (£8.3bn) under the SNP (since 2006/07).
2. Baby Box – Giving every baby born and resident in Scotland the best start in life by providing families with a Baby Box filled with essential items needed in the first six months of a child’s life.
3. Free Tuition – Students in England face tuition fees up to £27,750. Since 2007 Scottish domiciled students have continued to receive free university tuition, unlike elsewhere in the UK, and the SNP abolished the graduate endowment fee in 2008.
4. Free prescriptions – Prescription charges abolished in Scotland – now £9.35 per item south of the border.
5. Cheaper Council Tax – Every Scottish household benefits from cheaper tax bills – on average £577 less than England.
6. Care For All – Free personal and nursing care extended to everyone who needs it, regardless of age.
7. Increased benefits – The SNP Scottish Government are committing over £4.2bn for benefit expenditure in 22-23, providing support to over one million people. £460 million above the level of funding to be received from the UKG, estimated to rise to £1.3 billion by 2026-27. This funding will help low-income families with their living costs including heating and enable disabled people to live full and independent lives.
8. Funded childcare – Funded early learning and childcare (ELC) is available to all three and four year olds and eligible two year olds. From August 2021, the entitlement increased to 1,140 hours a year (30 hours a week if taken term time), saving families up to £4,900 per eligible child per year.
Totally agree, I hate to live in a society where there are policies designed to help vulnerable people and to give educational opportunity to people are promoted, valued and celebrated.
I can’t wait to live in a labour britain out of the EU where labour copy tory policies and Scots suffer the same levels of deprivation as their neighbours!
Bring back direct rule from westminster, labour will!
Well said Tom!
I agree. The SNP government has made a real mess of things with these so-called achievements:
1. 8bn health funding – The 2022/23 Scottish Budget takes total health portfolio funding to £18bn, with resource funding up over 90% (£8.3bn) under the SNP (since 2006/07).
2. Baby Box – Giving every baby born and resident in Scotland the best start in life by providing families with a Baby Box filled with essential items needed in the first six months of a child’s life.
3. Free Tuition – Students in England face tuition fees up to £27,750. Since 2007 Scottish domiciled students have continued to receive free university tuition, unlike elsewhere in the UK, and the SNP abolished the graduate endowment fee in 2008.
4. Free prescriptions – Prescription charges abolished in Scotland – now £9.35 per item south of the border.
5. Cheaper Council Tax – Every Scottish household benefits from cheaper tax bills – on average £577 less than England.
6. Care For All – Free personal and nursing care extended to everyone who needs it, regardless of age.
7. Increased benefits – The SNP Scottish Government are committing over £4.2bn for benefit expenditure in 22-23, providing support to over one million people. £460 million above the level of funding to be received from the UKG, estimated to rise to £1.3 billion by 2026-27. This funding will help low-income families with their living costs including heating and enable disabled people to live full and independent lives.
8. Funded childcare – Funded early learning and childcare (ELC) is available to all three and four year olds and eligible two year olds. From August 2021, the entitlement increased to 1,140 hours a year (30 hours a week if taken term time), saving families up to £4,900 per eligible child per year.
When was Robin McAlpine ever elected ?
Very disappointed in this article. Divide and rule working well. Total condemnation of SNP without any mention of conference or their independence strategy to be released by the end of the year. I’m not being naive given their past record but your article is just destructive. Not one thing that will help the independence movement.
Hi Jim – not sure how this is ‘divide and rule’?
Mike if it’s ISP, Alba or anything out with the SNP/green coalition you come down hard but always miss an opportunity to hold the current government to account or articulate how you would maintain a yes coalition or push towards independence, your pretty muted, maybe try looking at the respective parties manifestos and give praise or point to area’s of agreement, as well as what you disagree with, without resorting to mudslinging. Your silence on these issues speaks volumes.
I too would like to see more articles about the actual Scottish government on Bella. Their greatest achievement over the last 10 years seems to have been giving the CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland more child benefits and free childcare, and now they want to cut his council tax by the inflation rate again. Don’t know about you, but that sounds plain wrong to me. And they don’t appear to be able to do anything competently that involves anything more complicated than changing some numbers in a computer program or or making a money transfer. My favourite bit was when Jenny Gilruth bounded up to the parliament podium giggling, with an e-mail from a transport minister giving the OK to saddle the Scottish taxpayer with a £90,000,000 shipyard liability. Like it is really normal to take on a £90,000,000 liability with no detailed risk-assesment, and no discussion. Just a two-line e-mail, and who on earth would get instantly sacked for that? Unfortunately, we have to pay the full £90,000,000, and more, and Jenny Gilruth is in charge of fucking education.
You obviously haven’t been reading Tom Crozier’s post.
Hello Mike. Not a good article. Unkind and unfair. You say that Ash Regan lacks courage (courage about a flipping by-election) yet you point out that she and other ALBA politicians will be swept away after the GE. The GE result you forecast is most likely correct which, to me, shows the bravery of the woman. Bravery. I know that you might think of yourself as smarter than the average but I have a feeling that Ash may have just a wee idea of the risk she has taken. She may just suspect that her career is over. That’s the sort of risk that the SNP troughers are unwilling to take – is that lack of any action by the SNP troughers a sign of their bravery? How can you say that the woman lacks courage?
You don’t like Mr. Salmond – I don’t know why, but it is obvious in everything you write with regard to independence politics. Anything associated with the man you deprecate. Until you can remove this heavy prejudice you can never give a balanced viewpoint on the politics of Scotland. A lot of us out there in pleb-land believe in the justice system as opposed to the Garavelli-Tortoise-ism which you continue to use as the lens through which you view Scottish politics. Stop it. For your own sake, dump this prejudice. Have a look around you and see what is really going on in Scotland. Bella Caledonia is seen as the highbrow independence site, how about raising your own brows and realise your own prejudices so that you can take action and remove them? It’s easy to do so Mike. Think once think twice think Russel Brand, Think once think twice think Alec Salmond. Have a look at yourself. Just have a look, see the lack of discernment, and get rid of it, let it go. We all have to self improve – I know I have to.
Right. I don’t know Alex Salmond. I don’t like Or dislike him, its nothing to do with that. I am assessing the prospects of Alba as a political entity. Their polling is woeful. These are facts. Ash Regan may be brave, its true, but I think we need more than ‘brave’. I am taking your advice and re-thinking Russell Brand and now I’ve re-thought my opinion of him is the same.
No mention of Yousaf’s comment on her departure: ‘no great loss’. Such unkind dismissiveness speaks volumes about the integrity and worth of the SNP leader. And of course, the opposite is actually true, so it also lies as well as needlessly insulting. Such comments (for which he is not alone in the party) only reflect on the SNP’s moribund bankruptcy. By contrast, Regan, comes across as honest, principled and decent.
She has always come across as attention seeking and personally ambitious.
If you thought she came over as a potentially competent leader after leadership debates you are either Ash Regan’s mum or deaf and blind. I had no axe to grind about the leadership contest but found her the weakest of 3 candidates and frankly looked way out of her depth.
How the hell can someone stand for leadership of a party in the spring and join another party in autumn of same year and expect to be taken seriously?
She was certainly the outsider in the contest and had little chance of winning. I see nothing wrong with being personally ambitious (and that is hardly going to be enhanced by joining a very small party anyway so hardly that ambitious) but do not recognise attention seeking any more than any of the other candidates. She made it perfectly clear why she has jumped ship – you may not agree with her but there is a clear logic to it since she was the most radical in the campaign in terms of how to achieve independence and feels the SNP has lost sight of the cause which is a pretty fundamental problem for her. And she is hardly the first.
What Yousaf said were not the words of a ‘leader’ and that was my main point. It also shows he is clueless about what is really going on here. But then that characterises the SNP in general these days – fingers in ears, nah nah nah, ‘no great loss’, when in fact it very much is the SNP’s loss. You’d expect some reflection instead given the the serious paucity of candidates to replace NS, the resignations, indications of stepping down by numerous senior figures, the defections, the huge drop in party membership and by-election defeat.
When you say “she was the most radical in the campaign in terms of how to achieve independence” – can you spell out what that was?
Because her statement yesterday just said we would need ‘a % of votes not seats to then begin negotiations’. It seems neither radical nor particulalry coherent.
At the time, she was the only one of the three who clearly favoured use of the next Westminster General Election as a de facto vote on the issue. Neither Yousaf nor Forbes would commit to this. Of course that was then. It is a no brainer it should be votes and not seats to have any kind of legitimacy so the suspicion is that by saying seats you are not serious and even then it is now just another means of ‘negotiation’ rather than a plain statement of legitimacy to start independence negotiations.
What do I think of all this? Not a lot as I don’t think any of it will work unless the vote is overwhelming, and it won’t be. But I think the denigration of Regan is wrong, unfair and Yousaf’s response, pathetic and not becoming of a serious leader.
This is a key question.
Yusaf’s public school affability certainly fell flat on it’s face with his comment. I guess it’s loyalty >discussion, although going by Regan’s articles and broadcasts, I’m not sure she is capable of much discussion either if it doesn’t invole the Moon.
HY’s comment was maybe not very statesmanlike but he has quite a lot of other serious stuff on his plate personally and politically at present so I am happy to allow him a rather flippant (and true) comment about a rather shallow, narcissistic former colleague.
I would be more critical of how he treated Kate Forbes which was politically naive.
Sure John, sure. What I find though is if you take your head out of the sand, amazingly, you can see things more clearly.
I would recommend you try to follow your own advice.
Just so. The petty vanity and sheer futility of it all. I suppose Florid Fergus will be the next one to join Salmond’s vanity project – and then what? 🙁
Graeme – I will predict what’s next – Alba get nowhere at next GE and Holyrood’s election. SNP lose votes and seats due mainly to incumbency and divisions caused by members moving to Alba. This can only lead to independence cause being set back by a decade.
Upshot Alba members (the minority of purists) shout out loud how it is all SNP’s fault while being personally delighted that their personal crusade has worked and they will bask in the publicity from anti-independence media.
Majority of committed or potential independence supporters will look in in bewilderment and anger.
There is a very real possibility that that is exactly how things will play out.
Jim Sillars next? Though I suspect it’s more likely he goes back to his Labour roots, considering that he donated two grand to Jackie Ballie’s election fund.
If Angus MacNèill stands as an independent next election I believe he has a chance.
So long as the SNP dont stand against him.
If they do then we really are led by donkeys
@Gordon Cuthbertson, I think we could all do with less speciesism. Led by, say, vampires (the classic fictional representation of the ‘aristocracy’) but please don’t slander innocent non-human species like donkeys. Similarly, no need to literally lionise any species at the expense of others on grounds of heraldic preferment.
Alba’s raison d’être is to put the boot into the SNP.