Starmer isn’t ready for the coming constitutional crisis

Adam Ramsay looks ahead to the prospect of a Plaid Cymru First Minister from Cardiff standing at a press conference with an SNP First Minister from Edinburgh and a Sinn Féin First Minister from Belfast demanding the right to self-determination.

Absolutely nothing about Keir Starmer’s first year as prime minister suggests that he is ready for the coming constitutional crisis. 

In a year’s time, elections will take place to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Every one of the last nine polls in Scotland suggests a pro-independence majority will be elected, almost certainly with manifesto commitments to holding a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom.

Polling for the Senedd is rarer, but in two of the last four surveys, the pro-independence Plaid Cymru came out on top, and the also pro-independence Welsh Greens winning their first seat.

The Scottish parliament having a pro-independence majority is nothing new. But, if one is elected, and if the resultant government does indeed demand from Westminster the right to hold an independence referendum, then Keir Starmer will be the first Labour prime minister to be issued with such a request. 

Every previous occasion that the Scottish government has requested a referendum, the Tories were in office. While Cameron granted the 2014 vote, it was relatively easy for Theresa May in 2016, and then Boris Johnson in 2021, to deny the Scottish parliament’s right to hold such a vote. Tories had few MPs in Scotland, and those they did have were elected on ultra-unionist lines, by voters who absolutely wanted them to reject another indyref.

Starmer is in a very different position. His party now holds most seats in Scotland. Labour’s new generation of Scottish MPs weren’t elected solely by ultra-Unionists, but also by lots of soft independence supporters desperate to be rid of the Tories. Outright refusing to allow an independence referendum – particularly as these voters watch, aghast, as Reform rises in England – is hardly likely to endear this portion of the electorate to the party they just had a one-night stand with, and which is hoping to woo them into a longer-term relationship. 

Likewise, it was ideologically easy for the Tories to turn down a referendum. If the Conservative party has one historical constant, it is that it is a devotee of the despotism of the crown in parliament. It believes that sovereignty lies with the king, and is lent down from there. Labour’s constitutional position has always been more complicated – in 1989, all but one Scottish Labour MP signed the Claim of Right, asserting “the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs”. I’m sure that no current Scottish Labour MP supports independence, but I’m not sure all of them would be comfortable denying a Scottish parliament elected on a mandate to hold a referendum to do so. 

I’m sure that no current Scottish Labour MP supports independence, but I’m not sure all of them would be comfortable denying a Scottish parliament elected on a mandate to hold a referendum to do so. 

What Starmer will do in this situation is unclear. Ahead of the 2021 Holyrood elections, he refused to rule out allowing a referendum in the future. Ahead of the UK election in 2024, he said he would refuse to enter negotiations around a referendum, should the SNP win a majority of MPs in Scotland (which they did not). And in any case, what he has or hasn’t said in the past is utterly irrelevant, given his track record with promises. The obvious answer is that he will do whatever he thinks is politically easiest. Or rather, he will avoid that which is politically hard. And so, for those of us who support independence, the job is to make rejecting a referendum very difficult. 

The situation in Wales is slower-moving. If Plaid Cymru do come first in the election, they won’t have a majority, even alongside any Greens who make it. Similarly, while the latest poll does show the second highest ever score of 41% support for independence (and 72% among under 35s), that is still a clear minority. However, a Plaid Cymru victory would be the first time Labour has lost a major election in Wales in more than 100 years. It would leave Labour in a position where it had either to allow a Plaid first minister to take office, or work with Tories and Reform to block one – either of which would have significant consequences. 

And the Scottish and Welsh situations will be dynamic – with each impacting on the other. A Plaid Cymru First Minister in Wales standing at a press conference with an SNP First Minister in Scotland and a Sinn Féin First Minister from Northern Ireland demanding the right to self-determination would be a powerful image. 

A Westminster government adept at statecraft would be able to navigate these political cracks. Tony Blair was able to see off the political turmoil caused by his decision to illegally invade Iraq, and go ahead to win the 2005 election. But Keir Starmer, less than a year after his historic victory, is languishing at 22% in the polls. In an extraordinary feat of political idiocy, he has waged war on his own voters, and, with the Conservatives similarly imploding, left neofascists in Reform to mop up the mess.

The question for pro-independence politicians in Scotland is whether they can outwit these idiots.