Starmer is in Trouble, but so is everyone else
All political parties are in crisis. Starmer’s MPs are rebelling against his draconian welfare reforms at a scale and intensity that makes it a significant threat to the Prime Minister’s entire project, such as it is. Robert Peston has written:
“Labour’s whips are in despair. So said a number of senior Labour MP. And they are not professional troublemakers. They are loyal – largely – to the PM. This captures the failure in the party machine exposed by the massive rebellion of Labour MPs against the prime minister’s welfare reforms. What these MPs have told me is that whips, led by Sir Alan Campbell, have been warning 10 Downing Street officials for weeks that the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments Bill is hated by large numbers of their own side, and they have been ignored. Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, told them that the data showed the reforms were popular with voters, that Labour MPs should toughen up, and the government was pressing ahead regardless – according to multiple sources. This steamrollering has brought a government with an enormous working majority to the brink of losing legislation central to its ambitions to make the welfare state more affordable.”
The Financial Times has framed it like this (A defeat Keir Starmer can’t afford): “Less than a year after his landslide victory, Keir Starmer is facing a defining moment. If the next few days go badly, we may well look back on this as the last effective week of his authority. The parliamentary revolt against proposed welfare reforms is an existential crisis both for the prime minister and for his government. This is not the usual tussle over amending legislation, painful enough but commonplace. Instead, around 120 of Starmer’s own MPs — enough to wipe out his majority — are threatening to sink an entire piece of legislation before it has even begun the amendments stages of its passage through parliament. It is one thing to compromise, another to cave in to those wanting to torpedo a vital bill.”
Always sure footed, Anas Sarwar chose this week to pin his colours to the mast of this disastrous legislation (Anas Sarwar backs UK disability benefit cuts as Labour MPs revolt) and Murray Foote reminds us that “a timely reminder that five obsequious Scottish Labour MPs – Graeme Downie, Blair McDougall, Frank McNally, Gregor Poynton and Joani Reid – so strongly supported Starmer/Kendal’s benefits catastrophe that they very publicly put their names to it” (Scottish Labour MPs back ‘progressive’ UK Government welfare reforms). As Paul Hutcheon laments today: “Anas Sarwar refuses to back Labour welfare rebels as he offers support to Keir Starmer on the UK Government’s cuts bill. His position is in contrast to the criticisms of mayors Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham.”
So far, so disastrous.
But other parties are also in disarray.
Politics UK reports dozens of Tory MPs believe that if Kemi Badenoch is still leader by next spring, there will be “very little left”, One ex-minister said: “Kemi’s personal polling is in Liz Truss territory. There is now no precedent for it”. Tim Shipman lays out the scale of Badenoch’s disastrous leadership at the Spectator ‘It’s Liz Truss territory’: how bad are things for Kemi Badenoch?.
Reports from the SNP’s recent National Council are of John Swinney having lost the floor and being repeatedly challenged with Alyn Smith making what some have described as an ‘open pitch’ for the leadership and taking apart recent strategy, or lack of it. My sources say that Swinney’s inability to respond to calls across the party and the wider independence movement will be terminal for him.
Meanwhile, over at the troubled Alba party, they have turned down Craig Murray, Scotland’s Ambassador to the UN to stand as a candidate. The given reasons are a) his prison sentence and b) standing for the Workers’ Party in Blackburn. Despite George Galloway’s Damascene turn towards declaring his support for Independence, the Worker’s Party of Britain’s long-standing position has been against it, and Galloway was a key pawn in Better Together’s 2014 propaganda campaign. He called independence ‘sectarian nationalism’ and campaigned enthusiastically for Better Together. To be turned down via vetting for one political party is unlucky, to be turned down twice is something else, even if the feeling is that Kenny McAskill must have felt threatened by the Ambassador.
The announcement of Alba blocking Murray had some suggesting he should join the ISP. More as we have it from this breaking story.
Meanwhile, down south, a Reform UK councillor has resigned as leader of Warwickshire county council just five weeks after he was elected, leaving his 18-year-old deputy in charge of the £500m budget.
How do you explain this collective shambles? Reform are a disaster-area flush with the loot of ex-Tory donors but filled with swivel-eyed loons and consistently falling apart whenever they have to either campaign or govern. Alba are a shard of a shard already descending into bitter factionalism and a pastiche of the Judean Popular Front.
The Conservatives have destroyed themselves over a decade of infighting and a descent into crazed policies and platforms that have no rationale other than feeding the insatiable culture wars and appetite of Britain’s rabid right-wing media.
Labour and the SNP are both riddled with a managerialist outlook and an inability to confront vested interests in either country. Both have been lobbied into submission and driven to corporate capture. The result is a bleak and bland conformist political landscape with few options to inspire. But it is also a reflection of a lack of purpose seen in different ways in both parties of government in Scotland and England. The purpose seems to have been reduced to the pursuit of power at all costs, and then once in power being totally resigned to an inability to effect real meaningful change.
Well said. All parties are bought and sold for (mainly US) billionaire gold. This is why none of them have any people or policies worth listening to. To paraphrase Henry Ford, you can have any colour you like so long as it’s neoliberal.
The prospective next mayor of New York – a Muslim, Ugandan Asian with a Syrian wife and a strong supporter of Palestine, gives me some hope that perhaps someone on this side of the Atlantic will turn up that I could actually vote for.
I’ve already spoiled my ballot in the local and UK elections. I hope I don’t have to make it a hat trick
If there was an election for the Scottish Parliament tomorrow Mike who would you vote for 1st and 2nd votes?
Good question. I’m not sure tbh. It would depend on the candidates and whether my vote had any bearing and how the parties respond. I need to have a reason to support someone.
Interesting analysis, though I don’t know if I would agree that Reform is in trouble – rising in the polls, and being the natural protest vote for former Labour and Tory voters (SNP too?) the formers’ plight will inevitably be their gain.
Farage is the only leader at present who knows how to do politics.
Arguably the party sticking closest to neoliberalism, Labour seems to think leading is managing, and that economic growth is all that’s needed to win the next election (with financial analysts the only ones trusted on what will bring said growth).
It’s interesting in Scotland how support for independence has grown since the last election, while support for the SNP has flatlined. It’s rightly recognised that this is the path that would likely lead to real change. Though I worry that arriving at a convincing pro-independence majority requires a leader. Most probably this would be the SNP leader, but this cannot be a managerial technocrat i.e. Swinney. I’m pretty ignorant on who the candidates would be but just hope no-one from the neoliberal side of the party wins.
Reform are in trouble as much as their bubble is burst when they encounter reality (ie have to campaign or have policies or credible candidates). Also there’s some evidence that there is a ceiling on Reform support for now of 30% approx.
Revulsion towards Farage definitely limits Reform’s support, but Labour won their WM majority with 34%.
I don’t see a Reform implosion as inevitable, and the current strategy of rationally explaining their contradictions doesn’t work (as it didn’t with Trump).
Policies to reverse declining quality of life but also a recognition that politics is more emotional than rational is the only way I see the left fighting back against the decades-long slide to the right.
Duncan – Reform have two big advantages over all other parties:
1)They have not been in power before therefore incumbency is not a problem. They can pose as a plague on all your houses party and a depositary for fed up voters.
2)Support from large sections of media. Maybe not directly advising to vote Reform (though this wouldn’t surprise me) but definitely with their grievances.
They also have a lot of financial backing from wealthy individuals.
Polling shows they are more popular with older voters as they rile against social change in UK. Add in a good dose of xenophobia, a hint of racism all underpinned by English nationalism and you have the Reform brew.
You are correct in that they rely more in an emotional response and in Scotland IMO calling them out as an English nationalist party who have no interest in Scotland and want it to be another English region would be an emotional and effective form of attack.
You rightly point out that they could get a majority of seats at Westminster with little more than 30% of vote due to undemocratic FPTP system. More realistic is being biggest party and forming a coalition with a rump of Tory MP’s who would effectively be subsumed into a Reform government.
I don’t see Reform implosion as inevitable either Duncan, just pointing out that the toxic candidates they attract consistently fail under exposure to reality. You are right too that rationality in post-truth politics doesn’t work – you need a story and an emotional message too. You need a ‘narrative’. This is possible.
Duncan – John Swinney was not a success when he was previously leader of SNP and Alex Salmond had to return as party was failing. JS only got leadership position last year because party was struggling and all of the younger candidates saw role as a poisoned chalice at that point. JS has temporarily stopped the infighting and the decline in SNP support but his lack of ambition and inspirational leadership is becoming evident again as witnessed by growing gap in support for independence and SNP.
Successors – not sure but Stephen Flynn has a more combative approach, not dissimilar to Alex Salmond, and is probably favourite to takeover from Swinney. Whether there is leadership challenge before 2026 election I would doubt though this will depend on how SNP support holds up bearing in mind they could win Holyrood election with support in low 30% mainly due to Reform primarily taking support from Labour and Tories. I am also not sure if electorate in Scotland would be impressed with SNP changing leader and First Minister again (would be 4th FM in 4 years without an election!) I suspect polls would have to show SNP losing 2026 election before there would be a change of leadership.
John Swinney has run his course, he brought back much needed stability, but he is not for the long run.
Stephen Flynn or Mhari Black, either as leader or either as deputy, both have the capacity to motivate and stand out in the public’s conciousness.
Kate Forbes needs to be given a role she can thrive in, the finance role!
I would not discount NS playing a role!
Something needs to change and change fast!
As for Fergus, lets hope someone has a word in is ear, I’ve campaigned for him on several occasions, and see his latest outburst as a stab in the back, there’s no other way to see it!
Just to say Kate Forbes is not making many friends here, with her support for corporate interests at our expense. It’s a real shame because she seems a likeable person and a Gaelic speaker too. But backing the ‘freeport’ , the destruction of the highlands to power London’s AI etc, and the Tourist Tax while the NC500 and its customers do as they please where and when they please with impunity, while all our public services are quietly dismantled and defunded – I think she may lose her seat. We already saw the protest vote for the LibDems last year and I suspect that will only grow unless things change dramatically. There is a real anger at the way the highlands and islands are being treated. There is a Holyrood bubble that seems to think the highlands don’t matter because there aren’t enough of us left to bother about.
It doesn’t mean highlanders are all Unionists but that they will register a protest vote. I have even heard talking about holding their noses and voting for Reform. If that happens it will be because the SNP have let it happen. Like Labour once did they think Scotland belongs to them.
This is why I think it’s essential to have some candidates who are firmly pro-independence and also independent candidates themselves.
I don’t think any of our existing parties have any real credibility anymore with their traditional supporters. The Tories are giving up, holding their noses and joining Reform. Labour is about to come under pressure from the left and Jeremy Corbyn’s initiative. But nobody is coming to the rescue of the LibDems who are left with endless negative campaigning. The England & Wales Greens struggle on buyt the Scottish Greens have also joined the corporate bandwagon with their corrupt ‘Green Freeport’ and other WEF led policies. Their plans to save the planet now look like greenwash for corporate power that will just make the situation even worse. And where is the SNP’s commitment to its own core raison d’être, independence? They no longer have any credible commitment to independence – it just looks like more of the same.
I have said before that here in the Highlands it looks increasingly like we have been utterly betrayed by every party, and that betrayal is worst when it comes from the SNP who after all we elected to stand up for us. Instead we face new clearances as all investment is diverted to the so-called smart cities and everything here is in a state of managed decline.
The SNP and Greens too have become far too complacent, trying to insist that they ‘own’ the independence vote just as Labour used to assume its heartlands would always be loyal.
If we had some independent candidates who would commit to Scotland’s self determination and to representing their constituents before any other interest, They would win by a landslide.
But after witnessing the corruption and complete failure of the SNP Scottish government to act in the public interest or be held accountable, no amount of telling me I ‘need’ to vote for them will cut any ice.
As I have said before, ‘least worst’ is now a wasted vote. We have been lied to and betrayed too often. I will now only vote a candidate or party who will commit to
– people and planet before private profit; ending the corrupt pouring of public money into private pockets;
– ending ‘crown immunity’ ; making sure the rule of law actually applies, to all, equally, and that public authorities of all kinds can be held to account. The poor still have no lawyers and even if you can afford them. they are all completely useless in practice.
– upholding Scotland’s claim of right, i.e. right of self-determination, and from day 1. Holyrood is the representative Parliament of Scotland’s sovereign people, not some glorified County Council that does as it’s told.
– ending the colonialist centralisation of power in Edinburgh and starting a process of subsidiarity and decentralisation
– adopting an independent foreign policy that does not make us complicit in fascism and genocide, leaving NATO and kicking then nuclear weapons and nuclear power out of this country
– closing the corrupt so-called freeports
– stopping the ransacking and depopulation of the highlands by unlimited, forced and unnecessary industrialisation. We do not consent to be sacrificial victims for billionaires’ pleasure – we have seen far too much of that before.
– scrap NPF4, crap the tourism policies that seem to view Scotland as a theme park destination where locals exist to serve visitors’ wishes.
All these are serious matters of concern not just to me but many others. It is why support for independence grows but support for the SNP, Greens, Alba etc does not. We urgently need an end to neoliberal corruption and criminality. Any vote for Reform will be a protest vote. But I confidently predict that there will be an extremely low turnout next year and a very high number of spoiled ballots. A government based on 33.7% of the votes cast – like Labour in London – cannot claim a genuine democratic mandate. Contempt for democracy may well let the fascists in- it’s probably just what they are counting on.
I see serious trouble – civil unrest – ahead. Unless perhaps Jeremy Corbyn’s new party will accept Scotland’s right to self determination? It would be a good political move for them.
@Duncan Macrae, if politics is how we arrange to live in groups large enough to contain strangers, then Nigel Farage is not doing politics well at all; more of a derangement, an anti-politics, a pantomime alternative. Not that his opponents and rivals in British party politics are any good either. The cult of leadership has always been inadequate, but given the complexity of systems within systems of our modern world, it’s little more than a bad joke at best.
Fascinating and informative. Thank you.
I am reminded of the idea from Omar El Akkad’s current book, One Day Everyone Will Have Been Against This, that the important thing for liberals is not what they stand for or favor, but that they look good. This, I think, goes far towards explaining a “politics” that is a bag near completely empty when shaken by the challenge of events. Starmer et al are simply appearances…and that they appear good, should suffice. The real crisis, then, is their failure to so appear. When “image is everything” translates into a failure of image…there’s the political crisis at hand. Now.
I should make a subtle but perhaps important distinction/correction: Akkad did not say it was sufficient that a liberal “look good,” but that s/he “appear good.”
I wanted the SNP to go into opposition in 2021 in order to reinvent themselves but the juggernaut just kept rolling. Unfortunately, the Labour government is so awful that we actually need the SNP to stay in office next year as a clear rejection of both Labour and the reactionary reform.
Never mind independence, we are currently fighting to consolidate what we used to call Home Rule.
The purists and the utopians can of course vote Green or whoever but the SNP remains the most obvious bulwark against the various negative forces which are swirling around at the moment
None of the supposedly pro-Independence parties and candidates have laid out a plan, process or pathway that will facilitate the exercising of our right of self-determination and, ultimately, the return of Scotland’s nation-state staus.
Therefore, as things stand there is no voting strategy that will advance Scotland’s Cause.