The Political Disorder of Late Britain

British politics is undergoing a huge upheaval, as parties of the Left struggle to be born and the mainstream two-party system collapses. British politics is dividing along two axis: between the left and far-right, but also between the latent and remaining constitutional question.

The radically changing landscape of British politics looks likely to continue, with ongoing speculation about Sir Keir Starmer’s future and Andy Burnham doing an unconvincing job of denying he is on manoeuvres. Whether a Burnham could succeed in saving a badly discredited Labour government is pure speculation. Some polling suggests he could [The new battle for Labour’s soul Andy Burnham is on a collision course with Starmer and Reeves].

I think it’s unlikely. The damage done to Labour’s standing by their commitment to the genocidal ‘war’ in Palestine is a historic mistake and a moral failure that a change at the top can’t undo. Secondly, Andy Burnham is not so far politically from Starmer, another New Labour politician. And thirdly, such scenarios ignore the political fallout of ditching Starmer and inserting Burnham. That’s going to be messy.

Kemi, Zack and Sultana

Meanwhile, many are predicting Kemi Badenoch will also be given the heave if, as seems highly likely she ‘leads’ them to come fourth or fifth in the Scottish and Welsh elections next year.

Such potential casualties are of course, the result of Reform’s seemingly inexorable rise, even if Farage does seem desperate in rolling out his ‘their eating the Swans’ line. But not a week goes by without a poll coming out showing Reform in the ascendancy. This week was no exception with polling from Find Out Now showing:

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 33% (-1) LAB: 17% (+1) LDM: 16% (+3) CON: 14% (-2) GRN: 12% (=)

This is the two-party state collapsing in real time. Some, such as the journalist Sam Freedman are now predicting that the collapse will only accelerate. He writes: “Though Badenoch was undoubtedly a poor choice, the challenges she faces, and any successor would face, need to be seen in a global context. The centre-right is failing everywhere. The CDU is hanging on in Germany, but the AfD is leading in some polls now. Even Japan’s LDP, which has been in power for all but six of the last 70 years, is in trouble. Elsewhere, the centre-right is either barely alive, in opposition, or in coalition with the radical right.”

“Whether the Tories can buck the trend is a critical question because if they fully disintegrated it would put Reform in a position where they could hit 40% and win a comfortable majority.”

So far, so dire.

If the two main parties that have dominated British politics since the post-war era are in terminal decline, there are other forces at play. Despite the travesty of the Your Party ‘launch’ (ably picked apart by Darren McGarvey here), there are small signs of reconciliation. As Andy Beckett points out, while Zack Polanski’s Green Party has roared to a membership of 80,000, Your Party registered ten times that amount in a few weeks.

As Beckett writes [Corbyn and Sultana have a half-formed party with huge potential, and our politics needs it]:

“The three most popular parties – Reform, Labour and the Tories – are ever tougher on crime and immigrants, and deferential to big business. All three prioritise the same socially conservative voters. All three believe that economic growth can be driven by deregulation and the City of London, as though the 2008 financial crisis never happened.”

“The lack of an effective leftwing party since then – with the brief exception of the best days of Corbyn’s Labour leadership in 2017 and 2018 – is one of the main reasons our politics is so stuck and angry. Without a party that seriously addresses this country’s socially corrosive inequality, the exploitative and dysfunctional character of the privatised utilities and wider British capitalism, and the racist myths that dominate the debate about immigration and multiculturalism, mainstream politics will continue to move rightwards without solving, and often inflaming, the problems it claims to be addressing.”

It remains to be seen if Your Party can survive its own relentless self-harming, but there is no doubt it has massive potential. We will know by the end of November, when its founding conference meets.

Holyrood Calling 

But here in Scotland, other forces are at play. A new poll just out from Survation shows the following:

New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 4-16 Sep (changes vs 2-5 May): List: SNP ~ 31% (+2) Lab ~ 18% (nc) RUK ~ 16% (-4) Con ~ 13% (+1) LD ~ 11% (+1) Grn ~ 8% (-1) Alba ~ 2% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 37% (+4) Lab ~ 20% (+1) RUK ~ 18% (-1) Con ~ 11% (nc) LD ~ 7% (-4) Grn ~ 5% (nc) Alba ~ 1% (nc)

This would create an overwhelming pro-independence majority (69/60).

The Survation poll run found that Reform UK would come third in both the constituency and list votes at the 2026 Holyrood elections next May. For the Scottish Parliament constituency vote, the poll put the SNP on 37%, Labour on 20%, Reform UK on 18%, the Conservatives on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 7%, the Greens on 5%, and Alba on 1%.

This would be a remarkable result for the SNP after so many years in office, a breakthrough for Reform UK and a disaster for Labour, the Tories and Alba.

Another poll by Find Out Now for The National gave the SNP significant leads over the rest of the field in both Westminster and Holyrood voting intention. It showed that Labour would lose all but six of their Westminster seats if a new General Election were held tomorrow – and face dropping behind Reform UK at next year’s Holyrood elections.

Scenario Planning

There is then a possibility of a Farage administration being elected at the next General Election without a single Scottish MP and a pro-independence majority at Holyrood. I have said elsewhere why there are no circumstances in which a Farage regime is positive, even if it did cause a surge of support for independence. But it is simply a fact that this scenario is possible.

The collapse of Labour and the Conservatives makes the whole UK electoral map extremely unstable and unpredictable.

Some have suggested other outcomes as the prospect of a Reform victory looms. Some have suggested a scenario in which Andy Burnham defeats Keir Starmer in a Labour leadership contest, then forms an electoral pact with the Lib Dems and Green Party to form a united front against Reform, then wins the next general election and avoids catastrophe.

I think that’s called wishful thinking.

There are other factors to consider, such as the growing controversy around Morgan McSweeney, his undeclared donations of £739,000 and his links to Israel. Or the X factor, which is how Your Party emerges from its current crisis, and how the Green Party under Zack Polanski continues to thrive and grow. Or whether Reform UK manages under the scrutiny of a campaign, questions about Nigel Farage’s financial shenanigans or even their vulnerability to an attack from the right.

In Scotland, there is another question looming. There is not a single poll which shows Alba taking a single seat. Yet there are people urging you to vote for Alba, or the ISP (or Liberate/Salvo or the other one) to create a ‘super majority’. This seems irrational given the polling numbers and next May may be the endgame for the Alba party.  A reminder that when Alba’s leader Kenny McAskill ran for Alloa and Grangemouth he got just 1.5% of the vote, losing out to Eva Comrie, who was an Alba splinter candidate (she got 2.1%).

A lot of this is chaos as the hegemony of British politics disintegrates. Polling is speculation, and all could change in the coming months. But there are possibilities that out of this chaos comes a better future for Scotland.