A Scandal Meets Its Moment

Why Some Scandals Cut Through

Certain political scandals resonate because they tap into strong, pre-existing narratives. The Profumo affair of the early 1960s, for example, was connected with a wider sense of an out-of-touch Conservative elite willing to protect its own. It reinforced the belief that the Conservative establishment, from aristocrats to senior civil servants and ministers, operated in a closed world. The parallels between the Profumo affair and the recent Mandelson–Epstein scandal are striking: high-society decadence, national security breaches, and establishment ‘invincibility’.

Why the Mandelson–Epstein Story Has Impact

The attention on Peter Mandelson’s relationship with Jeffrey Epstein is not merely salacious. It connects to a set of long-standing narratives about elite impunity, the intimacy between political power and finance, and the sense that certain figures operate according to a different moral code. That it might also have a KGB connection links it to previous eras and previous scandals of money, politics, and sexual impropriety.

 

The revelations about Peter Mandelson’s associations with Epstein also have an impact because they are genuinely scandalous. If Mandelson had been passing market-sensitive information from the heart of government to a well-connected financier, that is precisely the sort of behaviour that, had it been exposed at the time, might have threatened Gordon Brown’s government. It was, as Wes Streeting put it, ‘a betrayal of the country and the national interest’.  It is deeply serious, with the police now involved, investigating possible ‘misconduct in public office offences.’

Long-Standing Distrust Inside Labour

The story also amplifies a deep distrust of Mandelson that runs through large parts of the Labour Party. His skills as a political operator are widely acknowledged, yet many saw him as an accident waiting to happen. Two high-profile resignations suggested that there was a pattern. More fundamentally, he came to embody New Labour’s comfort with the financial sector and its acceptance of the Thatcherite settlement. His famous line, “We are intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich,” now reads, in retrospect, as “we are intensely relaxed about the activities of the super-rich.” The hostility towards him has therefore been both personal and ideological.

Mandelson’s background as the grandson of Herbert Morrison added to this tension. His relationship with the party was always fraught. For many on the left and soft left, this scandal confirms long-standing doubts about his suitability and about the party’s judgment in embracing figures so closely aligned with finance.

The Wider New Labour Narrative

This critique feeds into a broader narrative: the view that New Labour’s lack of scepticism towards the free market and the financial sector prevented it from addressing structural problems in the British economy and society, including rising inequality. The argument goes that the failure to use the financial crisis as an opportunity to chart a different course helped create the conditions in which the populist right could present itself as the voice of the common people and the “left behind.” The perceived arrogance associated with Mandelson also connects to the view of a dismissive liberal elite who consider themselves superior.

A Gift to the Radical Right

The Mandelson–Epstein story also fits neatly into radical-right and conspiracist narratives, which have become more mainstream in recent years. Conspiracy theories about paedophile rings intertwined with governing elites have circulated for decades. Scandals such as the Jimmy Savile revelations, and now the involvement of figures like Epstein and Mandelson, give renewed energy to these worldviews. Podcasters and commentators who operate in the space where the radical right overlaps with conspiracism have seized on the story and amplified it enthusiastically.

There is also a darker element. The way Epstein, finance, and elite networks are discussed can revive anti-Semitic tropes that have long been embedded in conspiracy culture. This makes the public debate more volatile and the political fallout harder to contain.

The By-Election Context

All of this is unfolding against the immediate backdrop of the Gorton and Denton by-election, a local contest with national significance. The seat was one of Labour’s safest in 2024, one of the few where the party secured more than 50 per cent of the vote. Losing it would be a major blow. Equally important is who might take it from them.

A Three-Way Contest

The by-election currently looks tight, with Reform, the Greens, and Labour all having plausible paths to victory. As Rob Ford, professor of politics at Manchester has outlined, the constituency is  a multifaceted one, making predictions difficult. The constituency contains distinct areas. Some predominantly white, working-class wards could favour Reform, although turnout there tends to be low. More diverse and middle-class areas are likely to be stronger for the Greens. At least one ward has a Muslim majority, which is unlikely to be promising territory for Reform, particularly given their candidate’s ethnic-nationalist rhetoric. Telling people they are not really English is not an effective way to win votes in such communities.

Matthew Goodwin, who has moved from being an academic analyst of the radical right to one of its most prominent voices, is an interesting choice of candidate given his southern English background. For Reform, however, the appeal of being the anti-politics option may matter more than the nature of their candidate. Goodwin’s divisive profile is likely to energise Labour and Green activists who are determined to keep him out.

What a Split Left Vote Could Mean

Reform’s best chance lies in a split on the left. If Labour and the Greens divide the progressive vote, Reform could come through the middle. A Green victory would intensify calls for Labour to shift left in order to counter the threat. It would signal momentum for both the Greens and Reform and suggest a broader drift away from the political centre on both sides. It would also reopen questions about the decision to block Andy Burnham’s candidacy. He would have been a strong contender. Burnham’s active involvement in the campaign, combined with Labour’s organisational strength in Greater Manchester, may yet be enough to hold the seat.

What a Reform Win Would Signal

If Reform were to win, it would strengthen the argument that they are becoming a serious electoral force, capable of taking urban seats that were once considered out of reach. The by-election has also exposed fractures on the radical right. Advance UK is fielding a local candidate with strong ties to the area, which suggests emerging divisions within that political space. As the radical right becomes more visible, its factional nature, long evident online, is beginning to appear in electoral contests.

Why This Scandal Matters Now

Ultimately, the Mandelson–Epstein story matters not because of individual intrigue, but because it resonates with deep public distrust of elite privilege, finance, and political power, and with long-standing narratives about New Labour’s relationship with wealth- and the impact on the present-day Labour Party through those close to Mandelson such as Wes Streeting and Morgan McSweeney. It arrives at a politically sensitive moment, when these themes are already shaping electoral outcomes, giving the story real consequences for party fortunes and for the wider direction of national debate.