Sarwar’s Gamble

Sarwar’s campaign was a shambles [Scottish Labour’s Holyrood Disaster], and he was sensing that the Starmer-Mandelson-McSweeney omnishambles was dragging him down. No doubt it was, but it’s a diversion from Scottish Labour’s own problems. His press conference this afternoon was high drama, and was aimed at framing him as bold, brave and decisive, not traits commonly associated with him. But only a couple of hours after his live televised call for the Prime Minister to step down, it looks to be backfiring terribly on the Scottish Labour leader.

Aubrey Allegratti from The Times, which has been running a running commentary on the SLP’s civil war since the Autumn, asks:

“Will ANY Scottish MPs come out and support Anas Sarwar? So far there’s been a big backlash against Sarwar. One senior figure says privately: “Anas is wrong. [It’s] opportunistic and with no plan.” Another Scottish Labour source adds: “Anas does not have authority to speak on behalf of the Scottish party in this way. It’s a fucking shitshow.” A third says: “Is this really going to help Anas’ chances of winning that much? It’s rearranging the cushions in a burning house.”

Connor Gillies, the SKY News Scotland Correspondent, tweeted saying: “Very senior Scottish Labour source tells me this move by Sarwar is “idiocy, immature, incoherent and self-defeating. Bad for the country, playing into our opponents’ hands, and without any idea of an end game.”

In the past hour, since the press conference, sixteen Cabinet ministers have tweeted public support for the PM Rachel Reeves David Lammy Yvette Cooper Pat McFadden Darren Jones John Healey Bridget Philipson Steve Reed P Kyle Ed Miliband H Alexander H Benn D Alexander J Stevens E Reynolds J Reynolds. As I go to publish it seems the entire Cabinet has swung behind the Prime Minister.

They may not be very enthusiastic, and they may not really believe it, but they also want to avoid a bloodbath.

Ian Murray MP, who many felt was behind much of the plotting against Starmer in recent months said: “The last thing we need is more chaos when the public want a govt on their side tackling the cost of living. We inherited a badly failing economy & public services. That takes time to turn around & Keir deserves that time. I’m sorry & deeply disappointed that Anas is wrong here.”

Murray’s replacement, Douglas Alexander issued a statement saying:

Quite how Douglas Alexander remains as co-leader of Sarwar’s campaign in these circumstances is not clear.

Anas Sarwar is badly exposed and appears to have completely misjudged the moment. His entire speech was couched as him versus John Swinney, Anas Sarwar versus the SNP. The number of times Sarwar repeated the phrase: “My country, Scotland” was notable, if a little strange. His campaign team have ditched Labour logos for a very large saltire, which was on display today.

But, if we’ve got this right, Sarwar has gone on live tv in the middle of an election campaign to call on his Prime Minster’s resignation without either a plan for what or who comes next, and without sizing up the support from his own colleagues.

Unless something dramatic changes in the next few days, it seems that Anas Sarwar has gambled everything in the most astonishing act of political misjudgment possible. It may be that it is he and not Keir Starmer who will have to resign.