On Faragism, Gigafactory’s and Independence
The clash of words between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch about their membership numbers – Farage claiming his party had 130,000 Reform members on Boxing Day – surpassing the number of Tory members when Badenoch was elected as party leader – is a classic Blue on Blue infighting.
The supposedly inexorable rise of Reform UK – a sort of Black Pilled Tory party – is being heralded by everyone. But here’s a few problems with this analysis.
The first is that Reform’s famously slack vetting procedure allows in the sort of people like Craig Campbell highlighted here. But if the far-right coalesces around Farage’s latest vehicle that will play well with loyalist thugs and racists, but it does create a ceiling for their popularity in Scotland. The Record writes: “Craig Campbell was removed as Scottish organiser of the right-wing party after we revealed his late dad was a UVF commander who was jailed following the bombing of Catholic pubs in Glasgow. His cousin Jason Campbell was also caged after he murdered Celtic fan Mark Scott by cutting his throat in an evil attack that shocked the country.”
Part of the narrative about Reform’s ‘inevitable’ rise is based on the idea that there are just no differences politically or culturally north and south of the border. To point to any at all provokes howls of outrage from Unionist scribes and columnists, simply to point out small differences of tradition and political culture provokes derision and accusation of ‘exceptionalism’.
It’s true that the relentless promotion of Farage by the British media has an impact, and it’s true that some people are concerned about immigration here in Scotland and are attracted to Reform UK’s agenda. We are not immune to racism here. It’s also true that there is some crossover between elements of the Alba Party and Alt-Nat independence supporters with Reform and the far-right. Ash Regan’s overtures to Elon Musk may be hilarious, but they speak to a wing of (un) thinking that blends nostalgia for Scotland’s industrial past with ease courting the broligarchy and flirting with Musk’s far-right politics. GB News reports “Ash Regan, leader of the Alba party in Holyrood, has written to the world’s richest man, to convince him to build a new Tesla gigafactory in Scotland.”
There’s no news yet on Musk’s response or on how this might effect the Independence Thermometer (s?).
Reuters reported: “The tech entrepreneur and close adviser to Donald Trump Elon Musk has taken a stunning new public step in his support for the far-right German political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), publishing a supportive guest opinion piece for the country’s Welt am Sonntag newspaper that has prompted the commentary editor to resign in protest.
The commentary piece in German was launched online on Saturday before being published on Sunday in the flagship paper of the Axel Springer media group, which also owns the US politics news site Politico.
Musk uses populist and personal language to try to deny AfD’s extremist bent, and the essay expands on his post on his social media platform, X, on which he last week claimed that “only the AfD can save Germany”.
Translated, Musk’s piece said: “The portrayal of the AfD as rightwing extremist is clearly false, considering that Alice Weidel, the party’s leader, has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka! Does that sound like Hitler to you? Please!”
Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD at the national level as a suspected extremism case since 2021.
Shortly after the piece was published online, the editor of the opinion section, Eva Marie Kogel, used the US tech mogul’s own platform to post on X that she had submitted her resignation.
“I always enjoyed heading the opinion department at Welt and Wams. Today a text by Elon Musk appeared in Welt am Sonntag. Yesterday I submitted my resignation after printing,” she posted.
It’s unclear what Reform UK have to offer their supporters now that Farage’s main USP – Brexit – has been achieved. But the far-right leader’s aims were never confined to just ejecting Britain from the EU – and Scotland against our will. Brexit can never satisfy its proponents’ urges, not just because Brexit can ever ‘succeed’ under even its own terms – but because it always plays to its bases most toxic impulses, that is where it derives its electoral populist appeal.
This is not to say that Reform’s perpetual narrative of betrayal and yearning for a glorious (undefined) great British past isn’t a threat that needs to be countered by the left and progressive forces in Scotland, but that it lands in Scotland in a political landscape and culture that is different from England’s, and that it’s primary focus – a complete hostility to Europe and a visceral hatred of foreigners – is antithetical to large parts of the Scottish electorate.
This is not an argument for complacency, indeed Owen Jones is quite right to argue that Farage, and the wider forces of the far-right have re-shaped the British political landscape (‘Across the west, the centre right is collapsing – and with it, any notion of what is ‘too extreme’). He writes: “It was once known as the “centre right”, and this was the year it definitively perished. It never had a coherent political philosophy, but it tended to blend deference to the perceived needs of large business interests, the championing of so-called traditional values that were actually longstanding prejudices, and admiration for established institutions. Above all else, it supposedly offered a cordon sanitaire, preventing anything further to the right from acquiring political legitimacy.
That hasn’t quite worked to plan. Nigel Farage now claims his populist-right Reform party has a higher membership than the Tories: if true, it is the first time in British history that members of a rightwing rival have outnumbered the Conservative party’s. Nearly two decades ago, then Tory leader, David Cameron, dismissed Farage’s Ukip as “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly”; but today, Cameron’s party has ceded ideological ground to its challengers and the current Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, is fighting Reform on Farage’s terrain.”
Finally however, we do have an indication of how electoral success for Reform would play out in Scotland, just as we have seen the effect of Theresa May’s and Boris Johnson’s incumbency on support for Scottish independence we can see too what the election of a far-right leader such as Farage would have:
Independence leads by four points in a new poll, exclusively in the Sunday National 🏴
The survey further found a surge in support for Yes if Nigel Farage was in No 10 📈 pic.twitter.com/FSxEzmi3e7
— The National (@ScotNational) December 29, 2024
We do know that reaction ‘against’ a toxic right-wing politics south of the border isn’t enough on it’s own. We need collective will, fresh thinking, a much more radical prospectus, and new distributed leadership too. But that is all possible.
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The Reform candidates are noted for NOT being professional politicians and not being ambitious or hungry for political advancement.
They are angry at the graduate globalist ruling elites who have for decades abandoned the covenant between them and the non-graduate working classes.
A covenant that had stood the people of our home-nations in good stead – in prosperity, safety, security, opportunity and aspiration.
The rise of globalism, critical social justice, and the educated technocracy has created a society more divided, with more disparity, and more inequality for the poorest in the majority population.
Why are you surprised that the larger population has lost faith in the establishment m’s political and educated classes?
Have you or those you consider comrades actually talked to the ordinary people of our nation? Have you ever suspended your opinions sufficiently long enough to ask what ordinary people are truly concerned about or want?
Reform candidates are noted for various things:
Jonathan Kay: The Reform UK candidate for South Ribble, who previously stood for the party in 2023 and 2021, has made countless racist and Islamophobic statements about the intelligence of Muslim and African people.
Mick Greenhough: Selected to stand in Orpington, Greenhough has said “The only solution is to remove the Muslims from our territory”, that the “problem is the Askenazi Jews who have caused the world massive misery” and promoted the far right ‘White Genocide’ conspiracy theory.
Or take Edward Oakenfull, Robert Lomas, Leslie Lilley.
Mr Oakenfull posted derogatory comments about the IQ of sub-Saharan Africans on social media last year. He previously told the BBC the remarks had been taken out of context.
Mr Lomas reportedly said black people should “get off [their] lazy arses” and stop acting “like savages”. The comments were reported by the Times on 8 June, with Reform at the time claiming they were “out of context part quotations” and it needed more time to respond.
Mr Lilley reportedly described people arriving on small boats as “scum” in a social media post, adding: “I hope your family get robbed, beaten or attacked.”
I could go on and on.
Defend these people if you like but everyone can see you and them for what you are.
Perhaps Nigel Farage is indirectly doing these islands a favour by outing these nutters & having them named & shamed in the customary very public manner so favoured by wursels. I still am puzzled as to why anyone would bother voting at all tho’. I once had a conversation with a lady up in Aberlour who like many living in this neck of the woods was from someplace else, anyway, her opinion was that if she cast her vote it meant she had the right to moan if her party didn’t get in. This seems a strange rationale to me. I haven’t voted in almost ten years now & still find many things to complain about. The whole system is odd when you think about it, why would you put your faith in any candidate when you have absolutely no idea what they get up to when you’re not around. On the other hand, why should we expect candidates to be of some saintly purity beyond any human being’s realistic capacity. It seems to me that what the voter is really after is somebody to project their frustrations onto in the usual build ’em up to tear ’em down cliched narrative so favoured by the UK press which reflects well on nobody & is unhelpful & unhealthy behaviour for all involved in my humble opinion.
While I’m here, & just to get back onto my usual hobby horse, I did read something by Robin McAlpine recently in which he refers to the SNP as the Scottish Nato Party which I have to say did amuse me slightly, I wonder if anyone who comments here or writes for Bella might enlighten me as to why after 30 years the SNP did a U turn on NATO membership. It seems odd to me & highly suspicious that they would do this almost directly after forming a majority government at Holyrood, so the party people voted into government within a year was no longer the party they voted into government & therefore not the government they voted for. Hate to say it, but that is so typical of the British parliamentary system it barely registers as shock although it really ought to & this allegiance to NATO still receives too little attention in the press which is all deeply sinister when we consider every other aspect of Scottish Nato Party policy seems to get a thorough interrogation via the usual channels. So now we have former Moray MP Angus Boab, NATO’s numero uno, in charge of the Arts budget in Scotland. If you could have made this up you’d probably have received a bursary from Creative Scotland depending on how nuclear friendly you were. So, what gives? Are we simply in a situation in which we must accept the Scottish Nato Party as our only realistic chance of pretty much this same horrible state of affairs trundling on forever because we’re too feart an alternative would somehow be worse? (Apologies to anyone who objects to my harping on at length on a theme I’d actually rather not have to research, but if you lived in Lossiemouth or any of those other areas of Scotland so dominated by the presence of the British military then I’m sure it would be an issue towards the front of your mind also, xo).
Like it or not, Steve, your five Reform MPs are members of the ruling elite.
Nigel Farage, son of a stockbroker, made his fortune in the London financial markets as a commodities trader, after being educated at Dulwich College.
Richard Tice is a multi-millionaire and former CEO of the Mayfair-based asset management company, Quidnet Capital Partners. He too was privately educated and is a graduate of the University of Salford.
Rupert Lowe – also privately educated and a graduate if the University of Reading – made his millions working for Morgan Grenfell, Deutsche Bank, and Barings Bank.
After graduating from the University of Sussex, James McMurdock became a banker, working at Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers.
The only non-graduate, working-class bloke among them is ex-miner and serial professional politician Les Anderson. I doubt any of the others has actually talked to the ordinary people of our nation in all their diversity.
Lee ’30p’ Anderson : the proverbial thick as two planks.
Have you? And what is it they want? An end to graduates? Is that it?
What “Nation” steve h,are you still ironing your blackshirt along with your fellow frothers,you really are a card lol.
Musk claims that he’s entitled to intervene in German politics because of his investment there. Is that really what Reagan wants for Scotland?
The last time this happened was the 1930s, as is well known. Scots did not emulate English fascism then, partly because of the still prevalent role of the churches in Scottish society. Racism there was aplenty, indeed championed by the selfsame church, but directed at the Irish in particular, and in part because of another now familiar theme – the “replacement” of the true population for an inferior one, whether on eugenic grounds or religious (i.e. Muslim) or skin colour.
As long as yessers provide a forcefully-argued alternative, including a clear economic picture, Reform will only split the right here, and attract the usual oddballs.
I hope you are right, and that this (from Alba) is not a straw in the wind:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24792772.not-racist-question-free-asylum-seeker-bus-travel-says/
Alba is moving rightwards, it’s the only direction they are capable of going.
For McEleny, such ineptitude is the rule, not the exception.
There are a number of reasons for the rise of populism across western democracies. The banking crisis of 2007 and its long term after effects are probably the biggest factor. This has been exacerbated by politicians inability and unwillingness to protect large sections of the populace from the fallout from the financial crisis. I would also add that the banking crisis has its roots in the economic orthodoxy of deregulation and outsourcing which has left many people feeling insecure and vulnerable. Most politicians do not appear willing or able to protect many people from the downside from economic changes. This has led to a dissatisfaction and widespread cynicism in politics that has enabled populist politicians to flourish.
Populist politicians are adept at exploiting public discontent and whipping up grievances. They are also very good at identifying scapegoats but rarely offer any viable long term solutions.
Reform are currently exploiting the public’s dislike of Conservatives and political ineptitude of current Labour government at Westminster. They may even tap into discontent with long term incumbency of SNP government at Holyrood.
Reform appear to be an AngloBritish nationalist party and as such will have less appeal in Scotland than in England and Wales. There are still a large number of voters in Scotland who see themselves as distinctively Scottish and British and Reform will struggle to attract them due to their AngloBritish outlook.
The FPTP nature of elections at Westminster means that Reform could win power at Westminster with 30+% of vote which may be a possibility in 2029. The PR system at Holyrood effectively means that Reform have no chance of taking power in 2026.
In my opinion the best way to counter Reform is:
1)Adopt a PR form of elections at Westminster. If Reform obtain 15% of vote they are entitled to 15% representation.
2)Address economic concerns and insecurity of many parts of population.
3)Improve public services.
4)Challenge Reform on their policies- when they actually publish them -especially around the impact they would have on economy, NHS, care services and public services.
5)Highlight the hypocrisy and racism that is at the heart of many Reform politicians.
Some commentators appear to take approach that Reform split the rightwing vote at Westminster and anti independence vote at Holyrood and this would be beneficial. History shows us that the only way to defeat populist politicians is not to ignore or indulge them but to challenge and expose them to be the charlatans they usually turn out to be.
very thorough analysis but just to be a pain aren’t all politicians populists I mean like the stereotypical used car salesman they’ll say whatever they think will make them a sale/give them a vote, at the party level they do likewise, tailoring policy depending on what they believe will give them the best chance of winning the election, so much focus on the winning of elections far too little focus on improving life for anybody & everybody in my humble opinion, I agree with much of what you say but think more might be said about what happened in the 90s when students suddenly were expected to take out loans to cover their basic maintenance while at college or university, I think this was a real game changer in our society & has had a terrible impact all round really
m – you are correct in saying that all politicians seek popularity to gain votes and are almost inevitably populist to some degree. There can be populist politicians of all persuasions some of whom I possibly agree with on some policies.
To be more accurate I would describe the current trend of right wing populism of Reform as being a brand of populism that economically doesn’t really challenge the economic orthodoxy of last 40 years and shows little interest in reducing inequality.
It is promoted by the very rich to divert public opinion away from the fundamental inequalities perpetuated by current economic conditions by blaming others especially minorities. This type of populism has a long and ignoble history and rarely ends well for minorities or even the majority of population.
I would not disagree with what you say about student loans and count myself fortunate to have completed my education prior to their implementation.
I honestly think the political class in its entirety is conspiring against us therefore point blank refuse to vote or engage with any of them. I don’t see how Scotland is ever getting past square one in terms of independence. I think the Scottish Nato Party shall win convincingly in 2026 as is usual following a UK general election victory for what is widely viewed as being one of the British parties, then support for independence shall as per usual fall back to around the forty odd percent mark & none of this shall have made a blind bit of difference since in reality all Scotland shall ever be is the arse end of Donald Trump’s poodle. Away for a wee snooze now, hopefully when I wake up it shall have been a bad dream. Slainte.
m – I don’t think the SNP will win convincingly in 2026 due to a number of reasons mainly incumbency (policy failures)and lack of any obvious route to independence (Westminster intransigence).I previously thought SNP might lose power but observing Labour in power at Westminster I now think SNP may retain power (if not a majority) due to disillusionment with Labour.
Support for independence now outstrips support for SNP and it will be important that SNP acknowledge this and work with independence movement and vice versa.
Ultimately the route to independence has to be via another referendum. This referendum can only be achieved by:
1)Westminster agreeing a Section 30 request.
2)Westminster handing powers to hold a referendum over to Holyrood.
3)Holyrood holding a referendum without Westminster consent.
Options 1. & 2 will probably require SNP to hold balance of power at Holyrood. Option 3 is only feasible with a large majority of independence supporting MSP’s at Holyrood and Scottish MP’s at Westminster and will require international recognition and acceptance. This is possible if polls also indicate a substantial majority in favour of independence (2/3rd electorate). This may sound a difficult task but it is by no means impossible as recent polls have indicated. The upside with requiring this level of support for independence is that a referendum should be an odds on victory for Yes and Scotland will be relatively united post independence.
Excellent analysis that crucially provides sufficient framing and historical background to be meaningful and coherent to an outsider like me. Your observations–and urgings–vis a vis the Scottish independence movement have long made sense to me–it’s not enough to just “break way,” but to break away by creating something profoundly different and better. Just so.
One more thing: Note this from German media today: “Musk, with his 200 million online followers worldwide, is seen as driving a global political agenda to promote right-wing forces. He allegedly promised British right-wing populist Nigel Farage’s party donations of €95 million in support.” https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-why-elon-musk-is-promoting-the-far-right-afd/a-71186763
oh dear oh dear oh dear, I wonder if these bams are taking full advantage of the fact that we have so few fowk left living auld inuff tae remind us ae fit it wis like pre & post WW2, not sure I’d enjoy being a youngster these days, I wid certainly be looking around at auld cnts like masel & wundrin why didn’t ye do or say sumthing ye auld buggr!