A Roadmap to Independence
This is a space dedicated to debate about the reasons for and strategies towards independence. Here’s a contribution on behalf of the Aberdeen Independence Movement, a Roadmap to Independence.
We in the Aberdeen Independence Movement have said it before, and we’ll say it again: calling for a Northern Ireland-style deal on holding a Scottish independence referendum is a dead end. That approach was flawed from the beginning, and it’s now been rendered completely obsolete. Keir Starmer has made it unambiguously clear, there will be no border poll while he is Prime Minister. He’s aiming for three terms in office, meaning no referendum for at least the next 15 years. As for the Conservatives or Reform? Agreement from these ultra-British nationalist parties is even less likely.
Even if a UK Prime Minister couldn’t ignore such a deal, and we believe they both could and would, Scotland’s future should never rest in the hands of polling companies and their week-to-week numbers and questionable weighting, Independence is far too fundamental to be reduced to market research and put in the hands of private companies.
We said it was a bad idea when Stephen Noon proposed it, and it remains a bad idea, no matter who tries to dress it up. This proposal cannot be polished into a workable strategy.
Let’s be blunt: if we believed the UK was a benevolent democracy, we wouldn’t be independence supporters. It’s the lack of democracy that drives our movement.
So what happens when the UK says no again? Or, more likely, when it simply says, “now is not the time”? Years will be wasted, only to return us to square one. If this is the position the SNP takes into the 2026 election, enthusiasm from the wider movement will collapse. Many independence supporters may simply sit the election out.
Worse still, this approach risks eroding the SNP’s core appeal to those who vote for it to deliver independence. If whether we even get to vote is left to opinion polls, and the final say sits with politicians like Ian Murray, then why vote SNP at all? That’s a real question being asked in communities right now.
Let’s be realistic about the likely outcome. A Northern Ireland-style deal means delay. The UK stalls. We roll into the 2029 General Election. UK parties’ campaign on a platform of “no deal.” If the SNP wins that election, Westminster may stall again, promising a deal only if an SNP majority is returned at the next Holyrood election. That’s a long shot. Even if that’s won, then begins the horse-trading. One bad poll and we’re back to square one. Supporters have been incredibly patient. But politics can move quickly, and loyalty should not be taken for granted.
The most likely outcome? Years wasted. The link between the SNP and independence weakened. And let’s be clear, independence is not the problem. Support remains above 50%. SNP support is in the low 30s. That speaks for itself.
A Clearer Path
What’s needed now is a new route, one that is clear, credible, and democratically grounded. We support a national civic campaign, underpinned by a code of conduct and an Independence Convention. These are long-standing proposals we’ve backed for years. They’re also official SNP policy, overwhelmingly approved by party members, yet still unimplemented by the leadership.
The reaction from some quarters of the movement to the idea of a civic campaign organisation, with a code of conduct at its heart, was deeply disappointing. The very parties that would have benefited from such unity rejected it in a display of reactionary, short-sighted, and self-defeating politics.
Let’s be honest: when faced with that kind of internal infighting, it’s hard to blame the SNP for hesitating. But the egos and bitterness need to stop. Independence is far more important than any personal grievance or factional turf war. It’s time to come together, agree a framework, and move forward. No more “it’s my ball and I’m going home” politics. No more bammery. We need maturity. We need unity. And we need action now.
We have not always covered ourselves in glory in terms of how we have acted. We got into way too many needless scrapes with others in the movement and for that we are sorry. But the cause of independence is way too important to let personal differences get in the way.
So, let’s agree a framework (code of conduct) and get the civic campaign organisation up and running. No more delays.
The 2026 Election: A Mandate for Power
Our ask for the 2026 election is simple: campaign for the permanent transfer of legal powers to hold a referendum to the Scottish Parliament. A reasonable safeguard, such as one referendum per two parliamentary terms, could be offered. But the core principle must be upheld: Scotland’s future must be decided by the people of Scotland, through our own parliament.
As Tommy Sheppard rightly said, Scotland’s right to choose must be front and centre in the 2026 campaign. The election cannot be about who can best manage Westminster’s block grant. The “I” word can’t be hidden away like a dirty secret.
Right now, people are fed up with the political establishment. They’re looking for change. They’re looking for hope. If the transformational promise of independence is not on the table, we can’t be surprised when people either stay home or turn to the likes of Reform UK. Labour may have voted for devolution to manage Westminster’s decline and manage a pocket money parliament, but our ambition for Scotland goes far beyond that and we must act like it and sell our vision, not say we are a wee bit better than the other lot. That’s the politics of despair and the people have had a fill of despair.
What Comes Next?
What happens if we win that mandate in 2026, but Westminster says no, or now is not the time, again?
We all know the answer: they will. And that leads us to a hard but necessary conclusion.
We can’t just keep asking. We can’t keep accepting silence or rejection. On this, Nicola Sturgeon was right: the only option left is to treat the 2029 Westminster election as a de facto referendum on independence and we make it clear that all Westminster elections will be run on that basis from now on, or transfer the powers to Holyrood.
Time to Start Building
That campaign doesn’t begin in 2028. It starts now, with the creation of a civic campaign organisation and a code of conduct. After the Supreme Court decision, we were promised the biggest civic campaign for democracy Scotland had ever seen. What we got instead was drift and delay. We can’t afford that any longer.
The SNP is the biggest part of the independence movement. But it is not the movement. Just as winning devolution required a broad coalition of parties and civic Scotland, so too will independence.
Final Word
Calls for a Northern Ireland-style deal feel like déjà vu. We’ve driven down this road, hit a roadblock, reversed a few miles, changed drivers, complained about the block, and now we’re driving back toward the same dead end.
It’s time to change direction.
It’s time to stop asking Westminster for permission.
It’s time to act like a movement that wants to win.
I have read your piece and I do not see a process that takes us from where we are now (start point) to the end of the Union (end point).
“On this, Nicola Sturgeon was right: the only option left is to treat the 2029 Westminster election as a de facto referendum on independence and we make it clear that all Westminster elections will be run on that basis from now on, or transfer the powers to Holyrood.”
Turning any election into a referendum on Independence is wishful-thinking. An election is based on a series of policies and issues. On whose say so would you magically convert an election into a plebiscite on Scotland’s constitutional arrangements?
As for transferring powers to Holyrood, that implies that Westminster agreement will be sought … at the same time that it’s “time to stop asking Westminster for permission”. Power is taken, not given.
What and why do you need a “code of conduct” for? Even if it was desirable – it isn’t – who decides what that should be? You?
The article is entitled “A Roadmap to Independence”
So: What is it?
“Turning any election into a referendum on Independence is wishful-thinking. An election is based on a series of policies and issues. On whose say so would you magically convert an election into a plebiscite on Scotland’s constitutional arrangements?”
Which law dictates what an election is based on, and what issues parties must stand on? I’m not aware of any. Someone can stand on a single issue. Parties can stand on a single issue. You “magically ” turn any election into a plebiscite on the decision of the people standing and the people voting.
We need to stop whining about what wm will and will not “allow us” , and demand the human rights of Scots rather than pandering to, and playing by Westminster’s rules.
This sums up where we are and what we have to do.
Believe in Scotland’s have plans for a Scottish citizens convention. Can the different indy groups like AIM work together for one convention to get the independence that we so desperately need? We need a united campaign that everyone can get behind.
We need unity, if we are all pulling in different directions, we’ll get nowhere.
“What we have to do”.
What’s the process?
A citizens convention for self determination, that works on what we want as a nation. Holyrood and Westminster aren’t going to get us there.
“A citizens convention for self determination”
What does that even mean?
It sure as hell isn’t a plan or a process.
If you cast your mind back to post 1979 referendum the setting up of a Constitutional Convention which brought people together from civic society and cross political parties and crucially undertook a lot of the work to prepare for devolution. It also helped build public support for devolution and helped make it a realistic prospect for many voters and politicians.
There may be different circumstances around independence but the template for building public support and legitimacy remains sound.
In 2026 Holyrood election campaign for transfer of right to hold referendum from Westminster to Holyrood which is supported by majority of public.
If Westminster continue to oppose the transfer of powers make 2029 GE a plebiscite on independence- 50%+ votes for independence supporting parties declare independence. The Independence Convention does the groundwork for preparation for 2029 election and independence.
If we want change, then a citizens convention as John notes below, is how we can get the ball rolling. This lets us articulate democratically what we want, outside of the election cycle. We can’t wait for Holyrood to get it’s act together.
I remember Ireland did something similar around abortion rights with their citizens assembly, which lead to a change in the law.
It is worth pursuing, isn’t it? Unless you have a better idea?
John,
“In 2026 Holyrood election campaign for transfer of right to hold referendum from Westminster to Holyrood which is supported by majority of public.
If Westminster continue to oppose the transfer of powers make 2029 GE a plebiscite on independence- 50%+ votes for independence supporting parties declare independence. The Independence Convention does the groundwork for preparation for 2029 election and independence.”
You are simply asking Westminster for permission. You either believe in Scottish sovereignty i.e. Claim of Right or you believe Westminster has a veto. You can’t believe in both.
You can’t make an election into a referendum as if by magic. See my previous comments.
However, you can get all the supposedly pro-Independence parties to support the same prospectus in 2026, a key plank of which would be that a vote for SNP/Alba/Greens/SSP etc would be a vote for the Scottish Parliament to have legislative competence over all matters related to the constitution.
Caroline,
You have not identified a start, middle or end so there is no plan. “Getting the ball rolling” without one is somewhat aimless. We don’t have time.
In terms of a step by step process there is already one: It’s called the #ManifestoFor Independence. It is a 6 stage pathway to retoring our full self-government and independent statehood. (see https://newscotlandparty.scot/manifesto-for-independence/)
Duncani – I appreciate the 6 step route to independence is your preferred option but other people have other options.
Perhaps one role for an Independence Convention would be to review all the different options, identify preferred option and build up support amongst public for implementing the preferred option.
John,
We’ve had any number of conventions, assemblies etc over the last 11 years. None of them have amounted to anything. All we get is the same sort of useless waffle that permeates the article above.
We don’t have time!
We need to force the political candidates to adopt a credible approach now, ahead of the 2026 election. It is the only time we have any leverage. After they’re elected without commitment to any viable plan the long grass beckons, just as it has after each and every election from 2015 onwards.
Yes movement needs to close the rifts between the SNP, Alba, Greens, and others. Fragmentation weakens the message and confuses voters. We must also build soft power abroad: target EU institutions, Nordic countries, and international media to raise awareness.
There needs to be a framework for the aberdeen independence movement. To be blunt, that will require a committee to set up a code of conduct for a civic committee that will go forth and multiply committees. Let’s be honest, without that there is no transformational hope of having a clear route to national civility because people are fed up with oven chips.
Scepticism about all aspects of polling is healthy. But you won’t find permanent legal safeguards for Scottish devolution under the British imperial quasi-Constitution.
Maturity and a patient approach in my view require a willingness to engage with across-empire movements towards a new Constitution, drawing on decolonisation, electoral reform, pro-EU and republican movements which are likely to bring much more pressure on central government than the Scottish electorate could, and faster than the 15 years you mention. Even the UN might put some pressure on, given that the British quasi-Constitutional model was inherited by Israel, and there will be rulings that address its deficiencies. Recent events might make Canada reconsider its British-inherited constitutional deficiencies too.
You might remember that the UK fell out with the EU just before the Brexit referendum on the key (British neocolonial) issue of tax havens. If there was a UK groundswell to rejoin the EU, the EU would set down Constitution-level conditions. The British Empire is constitutionally a massive outlier in Europe, which allows among other things its foreign policy to be controlled by the USAmerican Empire, so the EU is almost certain to demand a codified constitution as a condition of rejoining which removes the Royal Prerogative powers and implements a new territorial arrangement (at the very least removing island tax haven statuses and USAmerican military bases).
This doesn’t mean abandoning your own proposals, which can run in parallel (at least until a Constitutional reform process is underway). But the surest way to gain legal Scottish independence, though Scotland was never a British colony, is to bring about the end of the British Empire; and the surest way to do that is to make loss of Empire the price for a desirable outcome, like rejoining the EU (which is now much more popular since USAmerican President Trump revealed the truth about the ‘Special Relationship’ etc). The EU itself should be reformed, but that’s something better done from inside.
Once a Constitutional reform process is underway, a suitable ‘no-fault, high-bar’ Scottish Independence mechanism can likely easily be negotiated, among other things which will be optionalised at the same time. And potentially vital new elements (ecological and environmental responsibilities) will be added which in the round are far more important than Scottish Independence.
Could NOT agree More!
We need a LOT more passion for this campaign and stop asking and start demanding. A majority vote for independence should mean that we
simply start doing it and the parliament at Holyrood should assume full responsibility and tell Westminster what is going to happen rather than ask them.
If everyone in Scotland knows that if they vote for independence it WILL follow then we truly can assume a democratic mandate. Whatever the right wing forces at Westminster say. We also need some really good lawyers to show how exactly we can use the wording etc of the 1707 Treaty of Union to resile from that treaty.
We thus need to flush out Westminster and force them to either do the right and democratic thing OR hold us against our will by force. Let’s see what the UN and NATO and the ECHR say about that!
But to actually achieve this we need to win over the weary willies and fearties who just lack the confidence to support independence. We need to be able to GIVE then that confidence.
England is a great country. Historically and now. They are our nearest neighbours and should be our best friends. There is no reason on earth why that cannot still be true post independence.