Ipsos Polling; Labour Collapse, Greens Surge, SNP Hold
As we head towards the turn of the year, and campaigning begins for next year’s Holyrood elections, a new NEW IpsosScotland / STV News poll has some shocks:
SNP lead with 35% of the constituency vote share
Reform UK’s vote share has risen to 18%, up 4 points since June
Scottish Labour’s share has fallen to 16%, down 7 points since June
Scottish Green Party projected to gain 17 MSPs
Alba on 1%
The SNP remain out in front on General Election voting intention, on 33% – 3 points higher than the 30% share of the vote they achieved at the 2024 General Election. Labour’s vote share has dropped to 17%, a fall of 5 points since June and less than half of the party’s 35% General Election vote share. According to IPSOS Mori: “The Scottish public remain divided on the constitutional question, with 52% of those likely to vote either Yes or No in an immediate referendum saying they would vote Yes and 48% that they would vote No.”
This would translate to the SNP taking a projected 60 of Holyrood’s 129 seats. Scottish Labour would take 19, Reform UK and the Scottish Greens would both win 17, the Conservatives would win 11 seats and the Liberal Democrats five.
What, if anything, does it mean?
We are watching the collapse of the post-war two-party system in real time. Both party’s (Labour and Tory) are haemorrhaging votes to Reform UK. The SNP’s vote is holding up, perhaps as a bulwark against the prospect of Reform, certainly in response to the failure of the Starmer government, and in spite of the barrage of negativity the party has endured. Swinney’s leadership, like it or not, has rectified the precarious moment of the post-Humza Yousaf era. The SNP voters who, only last year gave their vote to Labour in the general election to ‘get rid of the Tories’ are deserting them. The Greens are benefitting from a Jack Polanski bounce.
A number of issues stand out. Immigration has emerged as a core concern for voters for the first time. Unsurprisingly perhaps, given that it is the surround-sound of the entire UK media, and has been for years. The Polanski bounce is similar in that he has been given unprecedented exposure, and the SGP benefits, although you can’t vote for him in Scotland. The SNP vote seems impervious to the realities of their incumbency, nor the hostility of the Unionist media, and support for independence remains buoyant, despite the complete absence of either a campaign or a coherent roadmap. These ideas, these parties have essentially been cut loose from reality, in that they exist as tokens or totemic ideas that a large section of Scottish society supports regardless of either policy failure in government or the unlikelihood of an imminent referendum. People of all political stripes may not like that, but that seems baked-in. Alba remain marooned and irrelevant on 1%. They now have only one elected representative after Highland councillor Karl Rosie quit. Chris Cullen is now the party’s only councillor.
There are a number of ways you could interpret such a result, should it come to pass. In some ways the Reform split of the traditional Unionist vote is papering over the cracks of the SNP decline, from 48% of the vote in 2021 to 35% in 20256/6. In another sense this is a remarkable show of resilience for a party over a nineteen-year period. Equally, you could argue, how bad are Labour and the Tories not to lay a glove on the incumbent government despite having all of the powers of the assembled media at their disposal.
A SNP / Green result like this would mean pro-independence parties comprising 77 seats out of 129. That would be an astonishing result for the Scottish Green Party, and, frankly, astonishing for the SNP too, to win a fifth term in office. But critics would argue that the SNP need to win an outright majority on their own (65 seats) to claim a mandate for a referendum. Others would suggest that either a) there are no circumstances in which the British state will offer a referendum at all or b) the SNP are simply manipulating the electorate to vote for them without any real prospect of change. Whatever your position or analysis is, the polling shows a collapse of traditional party support.
Labour Collapse in Scotland
This has brought some to consider that – as Kenny Farquharson does here – that Scottish Labour MPs will bring about a revolt to depose Keir Starmer and save their skins. We covered this here: Life Comes at you Fast – Bella Caledonia. I don’t think anything is less likely to happen than what is described. The idea rests on a folk tale about Scottish Labour’s strength, agency and vigour within the party. It’s an old idea. The Starmer project may be withering and disintegrating on the basis of its own incompetence, but the idea of renewal within is unlikely from a party that has been hollowed-out over years.
Such a result at Holyrood would be a career-ending one for several of the party leaders. It would be an unsurvivable event for Anas Sarwar and Russell Findlay, but also too Kenny McAskill. It would also mean the end of whoever leads the Liberal Democrats.
But it would also mean a huge challenge for the ‘victors’. What would such a victory mean for John Swinney, and where would he take the party and the independence movement? A victory would place him under enormous pressure to do something. Such a calamitous result would also put enormous pressure over Keir Starmer, who commentators gleefully predicted only until very recently, would be supported by a resurgent Scottish cohort. A result like this would also put strain, paradoxically on Reform UK. The ascent of Malcolm Offord to its leadership puts him in a position where he will have to defend his leader’s fascist agenda and his party will have to formulate some (any) Scottish policies. Both will be easier said than just floating to electoral success on the back of tabloid bile.
Excellent analysis. Lots of lovely critique in the succinct details. When are the pro-independence ‘parties’ such as Alba and ISP etc ever going to get their act together? Will be interesting to see how ‘your party’ do….. I suspect they will eat into the Green vote and the Labour vote, and if they agree to a second referendum, the SNP constituency vote?
Alba and the ISP have got their act together, This is them with their act together. Your Party is awfy late in the late to make an impact I think, but you never know?
Spot on!
SNP might just get those 65 seats, but more likely is a SNP/SGP independence alliance. Assuming both parties want that of course. The list vote could swing it either way. One thing is clear: the traditional two party system has been dead in Scotland for some time and 2026 will be its final epitaph. The wild card (joker) is Reform and always has been. Will sweaty gammons actually vote or do they just want to wave flags and shout? John Curtice will have his work cut out for him interpreting it all between now and voting day next year. But any way you cut the cards, Scottish Labour and Scottish Conservatives are underwater and will remain that way. And the SLDs? Will anyone even notice?
“But critics would argue that the SNP need to win an outright majority on their own (65 seats) to claim a mandate for a referendum.”
Maybe so.
But more to the point that is actually John Swinney’s so-called strategy. It is his policy, endorsed by the SNP membership at its October conference. Critics would not need to argue anything – they could just point to the SNP manifesto.
And, in any event, even if the SNP did achieve an overall majority of seats the mandate is not for a referendum (sanctioned by Westminster). It is a mandate for John Swinney to ASK for a Section 30 Westminster approved and conditioned referendum.
Unfortunately true Duncanio. Swinney playing the public again. Under this man there is no route to independence.
Indeed. John Swinney appears to have constructed a barrier to achieving independence. Why would any leader of an independence movement do that? Why did SNP members fall for it?
Good analysis, Mike. One small point: Alba Party don’t have ‘only one elected representative’, as nobody standing on the Alba Party ticket has ever been elected at any level. In this regard they’re a bit like Malcolm Offord, although he will probably be put top of Reform UK’s list somewhere so on these figures stands a good chance of being elected in May. But you’re right about such an outcome as this poll points to (which of course is no guarantee of what might actually happen in four and a half months time) being a challenge as far as the ‘victors’ are concerned, the SNP in particular. What do they do with such a result? What do the Greens do? And what does the pro-independence electorate do? There are no obvious answers, other than ‘more of the same’.
Thanks James, yes I agree that ‘success’ will present as many challenges as ‘failure’, and I take your point about Alba.
I think that the campaign presents challenges for every party; the SNP will face scrutiny about their policy record in office; Labour will be tarnished by Starmer’s short time in government; the Greens will face questions about their plans, and no doubt the trans issue will feature heavily; Offord will struggle as Reform’s vetting procedure is hilariously lax, and he / they will scrutiny about a) their Russian connections and b) the Scottish policies they concoct from the ether.
But I doubt we are in the era of ‘more of the same’.
May I add that:
The Tories are still tarnished by chaotic premiership of Boris Johnson & Liz Truss. They already seem to be haemorrhaging support to Reform who may well replace them as main party of the right. There is a section of Tory support who always agreed with Reform policies. This could end up being be an election where they aren’t a relevant political party in Scotland which is ominous for their longer term future.
The SNP will have to answer questions on what is their strategy if/when Westminster refuses to agree to S30 request to hold another independence referendum.
Labour are in the doldrums, along with Tories, and with their record on NHS and education in Wales and increasingly in England to defend they and Tories are struggling to make inroads on gaining any public trust or credibility in these key devolved areas in Scotland
My fear is that as they struggle to make any progress on devolved issues Tory and Labour will, out of sheer desperation, resort to culture war issues backed by media. The only winners out of this misguided approach would unfortunately in all probability be Reform.
One vote and small sample etc but the Blackburn by election does back up the findings of this latest opinion poll. There is virtually no change in vote %age for SNP, Lib Dem’s & Greens from November 2024 vote. Reform vote came primarily from Labour with a much smaller switch from Tory (who never had a big vote in West Lothian). This would indicate that Labour unionist voters in areas like West Lothian have little hesitation swapping to Reform.
Surely Kenny MacAskill’s final task will be to wind up the Alba vanity project and negotiate the return of whatever members remain to the SNP fold? I would like to have seen a more successful end to a significant political career. But he should have played his cards better.
Alba on 1% – whoopee whoo !
Only an SNP majority has a chance of bringing about a referendum. Is it a big chance? No. But it’s the only chance. Any voters who want independence to stay on the table must vote SNP and no other.