Back to the Future
This is my favourite Labour graphic yet. All the ingredients are there: the furrowed brow depicting Churchillian intent; anti-Boris seriousness giving ‘adults in the room’ vibes; at least half the image taken up with a huge Union flag subtly signalling British nationalism; and the sweet messaging which combines Spitfire Nationalism with quasi Trumpian undertones.
“Let’s Get Britain’s Future Back” it suggests with a MAGArific plea, but which one? As all of the best slogan’s do it allows voters to project anything they want onto this vague ‘vision’. Is it pre-Brexit Britain? The Britain of ‘No Irish, No Blacks, No Dogs’? Is it pre-King Charles Britain? 1950s Britain? Who knows?
What we do know is that today’s polling (from True North) shows Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour is suffering badly from Keir Starmer’s faltering government.
According to the Daily Record (‘SNP in big Holyrood opinion poll lead as Scottish Labour slump continues’):
“John Swinney’s SNP is on course to comfortably remain as Holyrood’s largest party, according to a new opinion poll. Scottish Labour under Anas Sarwar would be a distant second after shedding support in the wake of Keir Starmer’s troubled start as Prime Minister.
Professor John Curtice said Sarwar’s prospects of becoming First Minister have “diminished” since July’s general election.”
This is a remarkably poor – if unsurprising situation for Scottish Labour – and a remarkably good – if somewhat surprising situation for the SNP.
As incumbents of what, 18 years, and given the combination of self-inflicted wounds and a barrage of negativity (both are true IMHO) this is an astonishing situation for the SNP to be in. The combination of factors involved in this survival (and prospering) are contradictory and complex. You could say that John Swinney has produced a budget and prospectus that appeals to people struggling in today’s ‘cost of living crisis’ (a weak euphemism for endemic poverty); a sense of competence after the relative feeling of incompetence that surrounded the brief post-Sturgeon regime; those attracted to a sense of centrism or conservatism (take your pick) with Kate Forbes promotion; and the growing support for independence. These are contradictory drivers but they are likely still the same. There’s also the sense that the SNP are less thriving than benefitting from Labour’s palpable failure. The General Election gambit of ‘just get rid of the Tories’ has failed and run its course, as we repeatedly said it would. That’s a busted flush.
Scottish Secretary Ian Murray was asked by reporters about this poll today at Holyrood. In a statement reminiscent of Hibs ex-manager Bobby Williamson, who famously quipped: “If you want entertainment go to the movies”, he said: “We were honest with the public back in July that it would be tough but maybe the public don’t like honesty after all.”
Turning on the electorate is a well-worn path but it never ends well. But there are a number of other revelations from the polling. The Scottish Greens would make a modest gain of three seats, with the Liberal Democrats making a remarkable (if inconsequential) gain from four to twelve. Under this polling Alba would have no MSPs, that suggests the party remains rudderless, as Gregor Gall laid out in The National (‘The future of Alba looks bleak without Alex Salmond‘), in which he laid out their risible track record:
“In their first public outing in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, Alba polled just 44,913 votes (1.7%). Here they stood on their intention to build an “economically successful and socially just independent country, through the pursuit of a social-democratic programme”.
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Poll results like these are weird to watch. Scottish Tories, Labour, LibDems and SNP all look tired. Alba is not even a footnote, and the Greens look bruised. Even when surrounded by tired husks, popqulist ReformUK doesn’t get much more than a foot in the door.
Polls do indeed show a shift towards indy if ReformUK takes power in Westminster, but even that is bizarre. The direction of travel is very clear: ReformUK is going to be the big player after the next Westminster election. But Scots seem to be taking a conplacent-frog-in-boiling-water strategy, content to remain in the UK until Farage is actually in the driving seat. If and when ReformUK takes (or shares) power, the task of getting out will become much much harder.
I don’t actually believe those polls about a ReformUK govt in London spurring Scots to indy. We have already seen in the Brexit era that huge negatives for the Union do not in practice translate into an surge for indy. The 2017 election came hard on the heels of the Brexit referendum, yet Sturgeon’s push for indyref2 to escape Brexit turned out to be an electoral carcrash for the SNP.
Indy cannot rely on push factors. It needs strong positive pull to persuade people to overcome their fear of the unknown. Mike and others have written well about what that hope-driven indy could look like … but where is the vehicle for a yes-we-can indy?
I agree to a point. There certainly needs to be a constructive credible ‘pull’ rather than just a push based on revulsion.
But there are two points here, the first is that pro independence support is on the increase, despite a catastrophic failure of leadership. Second, Swinney has very recently pointed to a new route, and that’s based on the Stephen Noon/Kezia Dugdale plan we covered here: https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2024/09/25/scotland-and-the-constitution/
Spot on Claire.
“ReformUK is going to be the big player after the next Westminster election”
========
I would not bet money on that. And I comment as one who DOES bet money, frequently, on political outcomes.
This article is correct in stating that Labour in Scotland are suffering a fall in support on the back of unpopularity of Labour at Westminster. They are trying to adopt different policies on WFA, 2 child benefit cap, WASPI etc and though is theoretically possible with devolution it is a difficult trick to pull off for a UK controlled party. It also looks hypocritical when Scottish Labour MP’s vote for these policies at Westminster.
SNP have stabilised but their actual vote share is hardly rising. You have outlined the reasons above and I would add the fact that there has been no feasible route to independence identified. This, along with the current economic issues many voters are dealing with means that , though support for independence is rising again, it is not the top priority for voters at present. This is acting against a substantial rise in SNP support closer to 2021 levels.
Reform are benefiting, even in Scotland, from disillusionment with Labour, SNP and Tories. Those currently supporting Reform in Scotland can be categorised as:
1)Former Brexit Party supporters.
2)Disillusioned voters who just want to register their discontent.
3)Disillusioned voters who think Reform may be better or cannot do any worse.
The first group will vote Reform regardless, the second group will continue to support Reform unless parties in power start improving economy and public services. The third group may switch back from Reform once their policies become known and are subjected to scrutiny.
Ah wis fairly sure the twa politicos ah wis haen the displeasure ae watchin must be related, & it wisna jist thir physical resemblance. If ye hud shut yer een & listened it wid huv been damn near impossible tae distinguish fitch ane wis currently daen the monologue. Even if they’d swapt scripts ye’d be nane the wiser as tae fitch ane represented fitch political party. It wis jist a case ae thir huvn tae covr the usual bases & offer up nowt practical or common sensical. In fact, offer up nowt uthir than thir ain smug sense ae self-contented satisfaction at finally huvin achieved thir lifetime’s ambition ae being oan the great box of wondrous light they hud at wan time oanly ivir been permitted tae watch fur wan hour on a Saturday evening & that oanly efter successfully completing the clan chief’s traditional test whereby ivry bairn hud tae staun oan wan leg & recite thir times tables backwards frae the 12 times tae the 1 times withoot stoppin. Wie yer een open it wis even worse. Thir mannerisms & gesticulations being almost identical reflections ae wan anuthir. Ye could imagine the pair ae thim huvn tae be separated as toddlers cos they wur fechtin o’er fa’s turn it wis it tae be banker oan the computerised version ae thon wance highly regarded Monopoly boardgame. Either that or they hud jist been spending way too much time thegither spouting now standardised scripts oan the Brucie Bonus Show. Fit wis the acshil difference atween a vote for the Scottish Nato Party & a vote for the Tories onywey? Nay difference. These powder blue suit school prefect tie wearing punters wur takin ombdy daft inuff tae vote fur thim fur the proverbial ride, & it wis no a high quality ride. It wis a ride far the suit ye voted fur bailed oot afore proceedins wur even half wey commenced & ye wur heided doun hill at a rapid rate ae knots in a rickety ald go-kart cobbled thegither frae a puckle burst fish boxes & discarded pram wheels wie nay brakes & an incline much increased frae the wan the propaganda sheet promised. How come the British state didna jist dae fit it wid ultimately end up haen tae dae onywey, i.e., fence aff the entire district, stick up a sign saying CRAB MORAY & gie oany surviving descendant ae the peasantry a wan wey ticket back tae the Heilans & Eilans frae whence they hud arrived efter thir femly hud been banished by the ancestral counterparts ae this current crop ae con artists fas greatest contribution tae history wis tae clear the land ae fowk & instead fill it up wie sheep they believed wid mak thim a few quid in the short term fitch they wur free tae immediately squander oan o’er priced tasteless artefacts & further morally dubious, environmentally unsound & ecologically disastrous get rich quick schemes they stul’ huv the acshil bare faced cheek tae insist is in abdy’s best interest.
“UK Ministry of Defence enlists sci-fi writers to prepare for dystopian futures
“Imaginations of science fiction community used to help policymakers prepare for potential crises in Britain”:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/19/ministry-of-defence-enlists-sci-fi-writers-to-prepare-for-dystopian-futures
I would have thought our aircraft carriers are likely to be performing a near-future service as a reef rather than a humanitarian platform, but hey, you takes the MoD shilling and crank our your scenarios in ye goode olde way of patronage. I’m not sure if any of the anthologised envisaged a full-fascist NATO presiding over a smoking planet, but maybe worth a look all the same.