A Roadmap to Independence

This is a space dedicated to debate about the reasons for and strategies towards independence. Here’s a contribution on behalf of the Aberdeen Independence Movement, a Roadmap to Independence. 

We in the Aberdeen Independence Movement have said it before, and we’ll say it again: calling for a Northern Ireland-style deal on holding a Scottish independence referendum is a dead end. That approach was flawed from the beginning, and it’s now been rendered completely obsolete. Keir Starmer has made it unambiguously clear, there will be no border poll while he is Prime Minister. He’s aiming for three terms in office, meaning no referendum for at least the next 15 years. As for the Conservatives or Reform? Agreement from these ultra-British nationalist parties is even less likely.

Even if a UK Prime Minister couldn’t ignore such a deal, and we believe they both could and would, Scotland’s future should never rest in the hands of polling companies and their week-to-week numbers and questionable weighting, Independence is far too fundamental to be reduced to market research and put in the hands of private companies. 

We said it was a bad idea when Stephen Noon proposed it, and it remains a bad idea, no matter who tries to dress it up. This proposal cannot be polished into a workable strategy.

Let’s be blunt: if we believed the UK was a benevolent democracy, we wouldn’t be independence supporters. It’s the lack of democracy that drives our movement.

So what happens when the UK says no again? Or, more likely, when it simply says, “now is not the time”? Years will be wasted, only to return us to square one. If this is the position the SNP takes into the 2026 election, enthusiasm from the wider movement will collapse. Many independence supporters may simply sit the election out. 

Worse still, this approach risks eroding the SNP’s core appeal to those who vote for it to deliver independence. If whether we even get to vote is left to opinion polls, and the final say sits with politicians like Ian Murray, then why vote SNP at all? That’s a real question being asked in communities right now.

Let’s be realistic about the likely outcome. A Northern Ireland-style deal means delay. The UK stalls. We roll into the 2029 General Election. UK parties’ campaign on a platform of “no deal.” If the SNP wins that election, Westminster may stall again, promising a deal only if an SNP majority is returned at the next Holyrood election. That’s a long shot. Even if that’s won, then begins the horse-trading. One bad poll and we’re back to square one. Supporters have been incredibly patient. But politics can move quickly, and loyalty should not be taken for granted.

The most likely outcome? Years wasted. The link between the SNP and independence weakened. And let’s be clear, independence is not the problem. Support remains above 50%. SNP support is in the low 30s. That speaks for itself.

A Clearer Path

What’s needed now is a new route, one that is clear, credible, and democratically grounded. We support a national civic campaign, underpinned by a code of conduct and an Independence Convention. These are long-standing proposals we’ve backed for years. They’re also official SNP policy, overwhelmingly approved by party members, yet still unimplemented by the leadership.

The reaction from some quarters of the movement to the idea of a civic campaign organisation, with a code of conduct at its heart, was deeply disappointing. The very parties that would have benefited from such unity rejected it in a display of reactionary, short-sighted, and self-defeating politics.

Let’s be honest: when faced with that kind of internal infighting, it’s hard to blame the SNP for hesitating. But the egos and bitterness need to stop. Independence is far more important than any personal grievance or factional turf war. It’s time to come together, agree a framework, and move forward. No more “it’s my ball and I’m going home” politics. No more bammery. We need maturity. We need unity. And we need action now.

We have not always covered ourselves in glory in terms of how we have acted. We got into way too many needless scrapes with others in the movement and for that we are sorry. But the cause of independence is way too important to let personal differences get in the way.

 So, let’s agree a framework (code of conduct) and get the civic campaign organisation up and running. No more delays.

The 2026 Election: A Mandate for Power

Our ask for the 2026 election is simple: campaign for the permanent transfer of legal powers to hold a referendum to the Scottish Parliament. A reasonable safeguard, such as one referendum per two parliamentary terms, could be offered. But the core principle must be upheld: Scotland’s future must be decided by the people of Scotland, through our own parliament.

As Tommy Sheppard rightly said, Scotland’s right to choose must be front and centre in the 2026 campaign. The election cannot be about who can best manage Westminster’s block grant. The “I” word can’t be hidden away like a dirty secret.

Right now, people are fed up with the political establishment. They’re looking for change. They’re looking for hope. If the transformational promise of independence is not on the table, we can’t be surprised when people either stay home or turn to the likes of Reform UK. Labour may have voted for devolution to manage Westminster’s decline and manage a pocket money parliament, but our ambition for Scotland goes far beyond that and we must act like it and sell our vision, not say we are a wee bit better than the other lot. That’s the politics of despair and the people have had a fill of despair. 

What Comes Next?

What happens if we win that mandate in 2026, but Westminster says no, or now is not the time, again?

We all know the answer: they will. And that leads us to a hard but necessary conclusion.

We can’t just keep asking. We can’t keep accepting silence or rejection. On this, Nicola Sturgeon was right: the only option left is to treat the 2029 Westminster election as a de facto referendum on independence and we make it clear that all Westminster elections will be run on that basis from now on, or transfer the powers to Holyrood.

Time to Start Building

That campaign doesn’t begin in 2028. It starts now, with the creation of a civic campaign organisation and a code of conduct. After the Supreme Court decision, we were promised the biggest civic campaign for democracy Scotland had ever seen. What we got instead was drift and delay. We can’t afford that any longer.

The SNP is the biggest part of the independence movement. But it is not the movement. Just as winning devolution required a broad coalition of parties and civic Scotland, so too will independence.

Final Word

Calls for a Northern Ireland-style deal feel like déjà vu. We’ve driven down this road, hit a roadblock, reversed a few miles, changed drivers, complained about the block, and now we’re driving back toward the same dead end.

It’s time to change direction.

It’s time to stop asking Westminster for permission.

It’s time to act like a movement that wants to win.