Caerphilly is the Welsh Govan and it exposes the cracks in Broken Britain.
What passes for the British media have been playing catch-up this week. The Caerphilly byelection win is historic and exposes something I have been saying for months, that Reform as an English nationalist party has a weakness, and that is going to be exposed in Wales and Scotland.
In the most plaintive tweet, Andy McIver, former Head of Communications for the Scottish Conservatives posted: “By 2030, if polls are correct: Scottish nationalists will run Holyrood, Welsh nationalists will run the Senedd, Irish nationalists will run Stormont, English nationalists will run Westminster. People who believe in the UK need to reimagine it.”
You can almost hear the penny drop.
The problem for Andy & Co is that Britain is now unimaginable.
Over at the New Statesman Andrew Marr was also in pensive mood. “The postwar British political establishment is collapsing” he muses [I thought Labour would fix everything. I was wrong. Britain has become ungovernable.]
He’s right of course, but after Caerphilly it’s like an entire political class is waking up to a crisis they themselves have helped create.
As I said over here, “The Union is breaking apart from four distinct movements, that of Irish, Welsh, Scottish and English nationalism, all of which take very different forms.”
Caerphilly by-election broke several records:
– First time Labour has lost in 115 years
– Worst-ever Labour result
– Best-ever Plaid Cymru result
– Worst-ever Tory result
So why is this all such a surprise?
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There are a few good reasons.
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The first is that the media class just can’t comprehend what they’re experiencing – the rise of populist politics of the Left, and the continued rise of movements which want self-determination – because it’s a world they simply don’t accept is legitimate [
The Polanski Effect ] The commentariat is so protected from the outside world, and so dominated by its own demographic (male, stale and pale, since you asked) that they are immune to what’s going on. It’s called confirmation bias.
The second is that the entire media class is high on the supply of Reform rhetoric. They have become mesmerised by the idea that the ‘entire nation’ (sic) agrees with Farage’s fascist agenda for Britain [
This is Not Normal ]. It’s become an unquestioned truth that we’re all nodding along in lockstep (should that be Goosestep – Ed?). This is amplified by the fact that Farage and his party are given centrestage in the broadcast media and are surrounded by a right and far-right press who (not so secretly) agree with him. As Labour and Conservative party’s have tumbled over each other to accommodate him and outdo themselves in reaching further to the right, their credibility, like their voter base and membership has collapsed.
The third is the Anglo-Normative media can’t really predict what’s going on in what is, to it, the distant irrelevant periphery. The combination of these factors means that results like last night come as a shock to the media class.
But there are other reasons to suggest that Reform’s inexorable rise is being overplayed. When they actually have to run candidates, and have to expose themselves to public scrutiny, it doesn’t go so well. They are an English Nationalist party having to run beyond their cultural base, where they have little of value to say about anything. They teeter on containing their hatred of both the Senedd and the Scots parliament. It’s going to be tough running for a parliament you want to abolish.
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This morning Plaid Cymru won in Wales. Tomorrow, Catherine Connolly will win in Ireland. Next Spring the SNP will win at Holyrood.
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What’s Welsh for schadenfreude?
I agree with your heading.
However, in my perusal of the media, they are still plugging Reform to win the Senedd elections.
Another development is that Labour has been discussing with the Tories how to get their budget passed in January, 2026. Following Caerphilly this seems like two bald men discussing how to make best use of a comb. But there this a parallel with Scotland in 2014, when Labour took Tory cash to run the Better Together/Project Fear campaign and made common cause with Tory politicians, with one Labour MP saying he would vote for the Tories before he would vote SNP. Although Labour were on the slide in Scotland long before 2014 and despite their showing in 2024 General Election, it is clear they are sliding again, partly due to their own relentless oppositionism and partly because of the incompetence and its increasing English nationalism in a vain attempt to try to stall Reform. Tories who have not yet transferred allegiance to Reform, will do, so in some cases, transfer to the LibDems in others. A few might go to Labour as ‘blue Labour’ seeks to occupy the ground one nation Tories once occupied, but they and ‘blue Labour’ are likely to find it a grey empty space.
None of mainstream media have bothered to analyse what Plaid Cymru stands for. What does self determination imply? This is an urgent task for us in the SNP and our sister party Plaid Cymru. Once we’ve finished celebrating- we need a day or so to do that!
It is striking that a party calling itself Reform, calling for democratic reforms of the House of Lords, and positioning itself as the champion of hard-working British people, has apparently no official position on the monarchy (an “out-of-touch, London-centric elite” if ever there was).
https://www.reformparty.uk/policies
Somewhat of an Achilles heel, perhaps, for a populist programme (that opposes VAT on private schools, wants to undermine the NHS for the benefit of private health capital etc). Either way, it cannot have the whole nation behind it, and it cannot suppress fervent comments from the ranks without doubling down on its ‘free speech’ hypocrisy. Of course, under the British imperial quasi-constitution, the Royals are assumed to be muzzled speech-prisoners, while more widely large numbers of their subjects languish in the speech-prison of official secrecy (more with the triumphant return of sedition law).
I rather suspect that Fart-rage – Deform’s leader is hoping for a knighthood – “arise Sir Fart-rage” etc – hence not saying much wrt the Windsors & in any case, the English love their royal German/Greek family.
I agree with this article but think it has missed a factor that is very important in elections since 2008. That factor is the unpopularity of incumbent parties due to public being disillusioned by financial system and failing public services.
Being in power at Westminster quickly becomes electorally toxic for governing party in all parts of UK. Being in power in Cardiff or Edinburgh also becomes an electoral liability especially when there is a long standing electoral record to defend.
Labour only came out on top at last years GE in Scotland because they hadn’t been near power in either Westminster or Holyrood and the incumbent SNP had become unpopular.Within 12 months of Labour being in government at Westminster the Labour vote in Scotland has collapsed and SNP vote stabilised. Labour vote is collapsing precipitously in Wales as they are long term incumbent government in Wales and now also in power at Westminster mirroring what happened in Scotland post 2008.
Labour, despite their relative success blip in last years GE have never really recovered from their disastrous collapse in Scotland and Wales appears to be following the same pattern.
The Tories are being completely eclipsed by Reform in Scotland and Wales and Reform seem to have recipients of socially conservative disillusioned voters. Reform are however at heart a right wing English nationalist party which explains why they have more chance of winning power in England where they will fundamentally appeal to a much larger section of society as an attractive party of government in line with their values rather than as a depository for a protest vote.
Another great article Mike and bang on the money.
Thanks Joe